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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 18:44:31 GMT -6
Chris, After that teaser, Can I 'assume' you did not give much weight to the IBM model?  You are correct. Same model was in the 19 inch camp with last storm and has not done well this winter. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 18:46:10 GMT -6
It would be something if we get 2 to 4 inches of winter stuff in the metro with these trends, or even more comical if the model Chris alluded too is actually correct for this one storm lol Nothing commical about it at all if you are the one working your butt off the acurately forecast this stuff. |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 15, 2022 18:46:15 GMT -6
Why does he show it?
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2022 18:51:20 GMT -6
I admit I don't watch much tv weather anymore, but with the last storm I did watch Glen, and he showed several of the models, just to give an idea of what 'we are dealing with' and the range. Or something like that. I dunno. Lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 15, 2022 18:58:43 GMT -6
Ok everyone general consensus, what do we really think may happen in the st.charles county area, is this a non event with just flooding rain, a advisory, or possibly a warning because of sleet. i genuinely have no idea what to think in my area. Highly doubt anyone gets a warning in our CWA but I think St Charles sees at least a couple hours of ZR/IP Thursday during the day. Agree here. Big story will be dropping temps but i dont see much potential beyond what cards stated. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 19:03:14 GMT -6
Got some Memphis lows now showing up on the euro ensembles  |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2022 19:10:23 GMT -6
I did not mean to be harsh Chris, just meant this storm with models is a crapshoot. Really makes your job difficult. But I like your map and honestly hope it verifies that way without suprises, but its hard to not notice the trends at times but it could all be noise.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 15, 2022 19:27:31 GMT -6
I admit I don't watch much tv weather anymore, but with the last storm I did watch Glen, and he showed several of the models, just to give an idea of what 'we are dealing with' and the range. Or something like that. I dunno. Lol He's did the same thing Monday evening and again at 545 this evening. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 19:43:05 GMT -6
I did not mean to be harsh Chris, just meant this storm with models is a crapshoot. Really makes your job difficult. But I like your map and honestly hope it verifies that way without suprises, but its hard to not notice the trends at times but it could all be noise. It's all good. I just don't need to give ammunition to the folks who love nothing more than to make fun of meteorologists. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 19:44:00 GMT -6
00z hrrr is amped and north.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2022 19:50:23 GMT -6
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2022 20:05:03 GMT -6
Understood Chris. Thank you for all you do.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2022 20:11:42 GMT -6
Got some Memphis lows now showing up on the euro ensembles That's encouraging...I've been hunting in AR and haven't been keeping track of the models. But I'm still assuming this will come out flatter over all and models seem to be trending that way from the looks of it. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 20:23:55 GMT -6
00z nam and FV3 are both are on the north side. Get ice down to the St. Charles county line before the deformation zone pulls away.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 15, 2022 20:25:40 GMT -6
Got some Memphis lows now showing up on the euro ensembles That's encouraging...I've been hunting in AR and haven't been keeping track of the models. But I'm still assuming this will come out flatter over all and models seem to be trending that way from the looks of it. What are you hunting? Heard a big flock of snows flying south last night, and another flock about 8am headed that way too. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 15, 2022 20:27:37 GMT -6
The wind is really blowing a gale and creaking the house tonight.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2022 20:28:56 GMT -6
So great we have followed a Chicago snow storm for days while it was obviously never happening here. Bummer. You literally made a map yesterday that had parts of the metro getting 6-10 inches… Only the gfs, nam, and FV3 really have this as a Chicago storm. More than likely I get missed south and the metro gets missed north while Chris’ Columbia to Kankakee line gets 6-10 inches. And that's way off. 2/3rds of the metro will get less than 1" if even that. Chicago to Lafayette is looking at 8-15" Chicago |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 20:53:56 GMT -6
Wrf models are coming in icy for the northern half of the metro.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2022 21:12:55 GMT -6
Rgem stays course.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 21:21:38 GMT -6
Icon stays north lol.
Guess we’ll try to get everyone on the same page tomorrow morning.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2022 21:29:14 GMT -6
This is crazy. I wonder what the models are
Missing or not missing that is causing this huge discrepancy. Hand hopefully the wrfs are wrong.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Feb 15, 2022 21:33:25 GMT -6
Hope you have your extended mag on. We are covered in snow geese in Mascoutah. Pretty good reverse migration happening......until tomorrow, then it will slow for a few days. Got some Memphis lows now showing up on the euro ensembles That's encouraging...I've been hunting in AR and haven't been keeping track of the models. But I'm still assuming this will come out flatter over all and models seem to be trending that way from the looks of it. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 21:37:14 GMT -6
This is crazy. I wonder what the models are Missing or not missing that is causing this huge discrepancy. Hand hopefully the wrfs are wrong. It’s a matter of how amplified the shortwave gets once it ejects. Taking into account what we’ve seen this year and the last several, I agree with BRTN that a flatter system is the way to lean and most data is trending that way. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2022 21:48:37 GMT -6
I agree with snow and Brtn , things ha e trended better today, not quite enough but a little more south East is definitely possible over the next 36-48 hours. It would be nice to get a little bit of ice and snow
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2022 21:50:17 GMT -6
Brtn, I’m down in Arkansas as well today absolutely awesome weather. Upper 60’s and sunny made me really want spring! Headed back to St Louis tomorrow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 21:50:21 GMT -6
00z gfs has come south some more.
One difference between the models is how close the deformation is tied to the surface low. Gfs is not trapping it so close and has a very large snow shield compared to the euro.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2022 21:58:10 GMT -6
GFS looks WAY better, 24 hours ago it had temps at noon on Thursday 56 degrees now it has them at 32 . Much weaker surface low and way colder profile , at this pace it will match the Euro by lunch tomorrow
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 15, 2022 22:02:13 GMT -6
This is crazy. I wonder what the models are Missing or not missing that is causing this huge discrepancy. Hand hopefully the wrfs are wrong. Not that crazy imo. Many of those models referred to often have a cold or southern bias. There may be some recent south trend with other models, but even that is not uncommon at this lead. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 22:08:28 GMT -6
00z gfs ensembles are actually south of the operational.
Looks about right now, with the heavy band running from Columbia to Kankakee.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 22:13:23 GMT -6
GEFS members are clustering the surface low in far SE MO now as well  |
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