Chris's Corner - Valentines Day Week 2022

Individual GEFS member snowfall

Yeah coz I do agree with ya on that. I have a feeling this is as far south as we see though. Maybe even a bit north again tomorrow. A few of those gefs look mighty fine though. Sexy

Man... the wind is howling tonight!

Our flag was half way ripped off the pole earlier and a neighbor had their basketball hoop taken down. A tad bit breezy. 

This house is creeking from the wind also. 55* 7 miles west of De Soto. Bummer, no pukey emoticon on here. Should of used the phone.

Finally over dealing with norovirus, stomach flu whatever the h%#$ it was. Nasty little bug. Hard as h#@$ on an old person too. This year is starting out as screwed up as the last 2 years have been. 

I have to say... my going forecast looks to be in really good shape right now.
A couple of minor... mostly cosmetic changes to the forecast... but nothing major.
I'm triming up the range over our far northern counties... 3 to 5 inches.
This results in a slight broadening of the next forecast tier to the south... with 1 to 3 inches.
Otherwise...not much change....

Yeah... only doing one show per day limits my opportunities. I wanted to feel more comfortable with the idea that it was actually still going to be precipitating as temps crashed. The 00z data is helping with that. I expect a much bigger focus on the Thursday evening rush tomorrow.

I agree with you Coz , most models now have change over 8am-12am with temps rapidly falling. Last storm, actually beat the coldest guidance by a decent amount. This set up is not that far off, if we continue to have that weaker surface low further south, you will likely see that cold air bleed in quicker. Probably a decent sleet threat on Thursday afternoon.

Euro looks awesome, a mix of ice and snow, probably 1-3” of frozen precipitation for the metro from north to south. The heavier band 3-6” is not far from st Charles county. Hopefully the EPS looks good tonight. I think we’re in a decent spot, much better than 24 hours ago. One more 20-30 mile south drop and the whole metro would be in for a nice little event

Looking at satellite pics and loops of SoCal, it looks like a wildfire near the area. There is reports and video of snow and thunder on Twitter, along with several Jim Cantore videos.

Spent the better part of the last hour plotting surface low and 850 low tracks (for as long as one is identifiable) and there is strong agreement on an 850mb low track from near Joplin...up to around Salem, MO.... up to near the Jefferson/Ste. Genevieve County line... then across the river on the north side of the Kaskaskia River over to about Salem, IL. Further south, there is strong agreeement in the surface low track from northwest Arkansas up around Cape Girardeau over to just north of Evansville, IN. This paints an axis for the heaviest snow from near Butler Missouri... up to Columbia and continuing to about Bowling Green then across the river to near Peoria IL. Going up to 300mb, there is agreement with the coupling jet structure for a couple of hours roughly near/north of I-70 across northern Missouri. This forcing looks to be the strongest Thursday morning and then colapses rapidly Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

The European ensemble mean snowfall is in excellent agreement with the 850/sfc features. The axis is dead on with what you would expect from the 850mb and surface low track. Ensembles are an excellent tool for identifying the axis of heaviest snow... but they almost always over-estimate the width of the significant snow band as a result of averaging. This should be a pretty narrow band of heavier snow...running roughly one to two counties either side of the axis with an extremely sharp cut-off north and south of the axis. I've developed a bit of an adhoc way of fine tuning the edges that has worked with some success. I generally lop off everthing outside the snowfall contour that matches half the value of max snowfall band. In this case...using a conservative 8 inches as the max value... I'll go to the 4" contour and lop off almost everything lighter than that. The rest becomes massaging the gradient near the 4" mark. That probably doesn't make much sense when you read it... but it makes perfect sense in my mind

If the 12z data follows up with what we've seen at 00z... I think I'll need to bump up the totals a bit northwest of of the Cuivre River...but then I think I'm still in great shape south of there. But I want to see another round of data before I make any more adjustments.


I would expect the Winter Storm Watch to be expanded south by a row of counties... or a warning to be issued. Either way... I think Pike County gets into the Winter Storm Watch/Warning...with an advisory all the way down to the Meramec River before all is said and done.

06Z nam is colder.

The immediate metro gets about 3-4 hours of heavy sleet ending as light snow

SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 424 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

...A strong storm system will bring the potential for flooding,
severe weather, and a mix of winter weather impacts through
tomorrow...

Here are updated key messages regarding this upcoming significant
storm system to impact the region late Wednesday through Thursday:

1.) While models have come into better agreement with the track of
the system, though the remains some disagreement in the exact
amounts of wintry precipitation (snow, sleet, and icing amounts).

2.) Training of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms is likely across
portions of the area this evening through Thursday, generally
centric to I-44 in MO and I-70 in IL. These conditions could lead to
nuisance areal flooding and minor river flooding. Therefore, a Flood
Watch remains in effect for these areas.

3.) Significant wintry precip in the form of heavy snow, sleet, and
freezing rain: is most likely to occur across northeast Missouri and
west central Illinois late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening. The Winter Storm Watch has been been expanded to include
parts of central Missouri where a total amount of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain may cause significant impacts.

4.) Severe thunderstorms are possible, particularly over parts of
southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois, on Thursday morning into
early Thursday afternoon.

The latest water vapor analysis is showing that the upper low has
dropped into the southwest CONUS and the northern stream trough as
moved into the northern High Plains. There continues to be overall
agreement in tonight`s guidance that the southwestern trough will
move through the Midwest just ahead of the northern stream trough on
Thursday. Ahead of this trough, rain will develop across the
northern part of the CWA late this morning and then spread south as
mid level ascent and low level moisture transport increases ahead of
the trough. Then rain will become widespread across the area this
evening as there will be strong mid level frontogenesis, a
coupled jet structure, and PWATS climbing about 1.0". In addition,
there will be a chance of thunderstorms over much of the southern
half of the area as MUCAPES will be up to 500 J/kg.

A cold front will enter the northern CWA this evening and move
slowly south. The front will be slowed as a surface low moves along
it, most likely across the southern CWA on Thursday in response to
the upper trough moving across the area. This will bring a round of
sleet and freezing rain north of the front before the changeover
to snow. In addition, there is good agreement that a deformation
zone will move across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois
on Thursday associated with the upper low that will be capable of
producing a round of heavy snow. There is still a wide range the
snowfall values in the ensemble guidance over the northwest CWA
owing to slight difference in the tracks of the deformation zone
and QPF amounts which is leading to uncertainty this close to the
forecast time.

There remains the potential for a few severe storms Thursday morning
and afternoon along the low track over southeast Missouri into
southwest Illinois. While MUCAPES will only be around 500 J/kg, low
and mid layer shear will be more that sufficient for a few organized
severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and a tornado
or two and possibly some large hail.

The numbers on the northern half of that map seem like they might be a touch off.