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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 6:33:29 GMT -6
That looks about one tier of counties too far north with core axis... to me... based on 850 track and sfc low. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 16, 2022 7:23:51 GMT -6
Huge jump in 09z sref plumes. Mean of over 5” with some big boys.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 16, 2022 7:27:06 GMT -6
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Feb 16, 2022 7:28:29 GMT -6
I am concerned about the time for the change over tomorrow from a school perspective. Trying to get our kids home early is a pain, and I just can't forget several years ago when we had kids stuck at schools into the night.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 7:50:54 GMT -6
I really dont get this storm at all. Lets see how todays models trend, and also watch real time data of the cold air advancing. Questions for the experts on here- is the cold air placement currently where it was modeled to be, is it advancing south a bit quicker in the plains, or is it lagging a bit slower? I feel the speed of the cold air will be a telling sign for this storm.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2022 8:12:57 GMT -6
meh
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 16, 2022 8:14:24 GMT -6
Are we just laying off the freezing rain aspect of this storm because of ground temperatures? It seems every model is forecasting a decent amount of it. Just curious
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 8:16:16 GMT -6
I am not as worried about the ground temps as I am about tree accretion and powerlines if we get enough ice. But as we know sleet can be a game changer. Im leaving this one too Chris because he knows best, but the trends and differences are huge 12 hours before the storm
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2022 8:19:06 GMT -6
not really that big. nam sucks, as expected lol
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 8:28:17 GMT -6
Yes NAM and HRRR both stink this morning…
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 8:37:10 GMT -6
The wrfs are nasty. Even the fv3 is nastier in the metro. Im not sure how good those models are, but they are icy
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Post by mchafin on Feb 16, 2022 8:43:00 GMT -6
I concur with the school issue on Thursday. I think districts will have a difficult time grappling with the “what if” scenarios. Calling off school in the morning with rain falling may look stupid if it doesn’t ice up later. But if they send the kids, and the storm does materialize then you’ve got a dicey situation. And Lindbergh has used 3 of their 4(?) snow days already.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 16, 2022 8:46:43 GMT -6
We were talking about the school situation here at my school and with bus driver shortages and rookie bus drivers, we are concerned about at what point do you "beat the weather" and release? This applies to private schools as well with teenage drivers. It is hard to look people in the eye with rain falling and say "it will get worse"
Just how much worse is the big question. Tough position for meteorologists as well as superintendents.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 9:03:40 GMT -6
I am not as worried about the ground temps as I am about tree accretion and powerlines if we get enough ice. But as we know sleet can be a game changer. Im leaving this one too Chris because he knows best, but the trends and differences are huge 12 hours before the storm Heavier rain does not build up on trees or powerlines as quickly... because a good portion of it rolls off before it can freeze. I see a faster transition to sleet that would cut into this either way. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 9:04:09 GMT -6
I concur with the school issue on Thursday. I think districts will have a difficult time grappling with the “what if” scenarios. Calling off school in the morning with rain falling may look stupid if it doesn’t ice up later. But if they send the kids, and the storm does materialize then you’ve got a dicey situation. And Lindbergh has used 3 of their 4(?) snow days already. Sounds like the perfect day to go virtual! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 9:04:32 GMT -6
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Post by amstilost on Feb 16, 2022 9:04:33 GMT -6
Looking at snow depth map there is snowless ground up to central IA and northern IL due north and to the northwest all the way to the Canadien border is lacking snow. This could have an impact on the temps with the cold front vs. what is modeled. I would think it would make for a slower 'creep' to freezing especially during max heating so the warmer model solutions likely correct. Just my $.02 Could be wishcasting but I don't want to see a lot of ice in the area. I think I'm pretty safe, where no one lives, with the warmer solutions. Most precip, or very light, will be all that is left after temp goes below freezing. Still some models clenching on to a colder solution. I seen a pretty good comment yesterday. I will copy and paste it and give attribrution with initials, we know. It struck me as common sense. A recent Rhode Island storm for context, I'm assuming per previous tweet. Not sure if the previous tweet was a direct 'dig' but the statement below is still valid IMO.
"Why is a storm that some models predicted but were ignored an over achiever? The weather never over or under achieves, it does what its is going to do according to the situation. We then say things like that to cover up our own mistakes, as if we cant be wrong." JB
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 9:09:50 GMT -6
Looks like this might be a sleet fest in the metro, maybe topped off by an inch of snow.
Might see some thunder sleet looking at soundings
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 9:10:54 GMT -6
Thats another questions Chris. Isnt it in the realm we get 1/2 inch of sleet and that is warning criteria for sleet which makes me curious that the watch was not brought into the metro for impacts. Or at least to the 70 corridor. I thank you for all your input. And I think your inpact map is perfect.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 9:15:21 GMT -6
Rgem holds with icy mess in the metro. It has been consistent
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 9:18:16 GMT -6
RGEM looks very sleety after 9 am as snow mentioned, I think there Could be some periods of moderate to heavy sleet at times from late McIntosh the afternoon hours
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 9:19:10 GMT -6
Thats another questions Chris. Isnt it in the realm we get 1/2 inch of sleet and that is warning criteria for sleet which makes me curious that the watch was not brought into the metro for impacts. Or at least to the 70 corridor. I thank you for all your input. And I think your inpact map is perfect. Has to be more than "within the relm" There has to be at least a 50% chance of warning criteria being met. Even with sleet that is questionable. This has the look of a warning for Pike Co... and a strong advisory down to I-70. Which... by the way... will be a thing of the past in the not too distant future. Winter advisories are likely going away in the next couple of years. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 9:20:21 GMT -6
Ok thank you Chris
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 9:20:59 GMT -6
What will be in place of advisories. Will it be special weather statements?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 9:37:09 GMT -6
What will be in place of advisories. Will it be special weather statements? Nothing. The last I heard was the forecast will stand on its own. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 9:42:23 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2022 9:42:26 GMT -6
From what I've looked at rather briefly, this is looking pretty icy and snowy Thursday afternoon/early evening along/N of 70. Models are trying to phase the mid-level shortwave into the N stream pretty early and "jump" it N across E KS or W MO. I'm not convinced that will happen. It looks likely that the N half of the CWA will catch the tailing Fgen enhanced deformation which should drop several inches of snow on top of some minor PL/ZR. The S half looks to get dry slotted, so winter weather looks limited down that way.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 16, 2022 9:48:10 GMT -6
GFS a little slower and slightly more south at hour 30 on latest run. Ice/sleet mess. Low sitting right about Cape Girardeau
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 9:48:30 GMT -6
Thats interesting chris, i feel winter weather advisories are needed for the general public.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 9:50:00 GMT -6
Wow gfs is a real mess in the metro
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