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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 9:54:55 GMT -6
Wow gfs is a real mess in the metro Taking it verbatim in the metro, it shows 0.1-0.3in of ice accreation, 0.5-1in of sleet, and 1-2in of snow.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 9:55:50 GMT -6
That would be fairly high impact snowstorm. basically ice stormish
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 9:59:04 GMT -6
Oh boy the GEFS took a significant shift south, I know sleet affects it but it shows the potential mess this could be if I am reading it correctly.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 16, 2022 9:59:24 GMT -6
Yeah, the GFS even shows up to .25" of ice accretion over here. I'm not sure I buy that one this far east, but it has to do with the overall shift south/southeast I would think.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 16, 2022 10:01:12 GMT -6
Looks like a ugly afternoon rush tomorrow... ❄️
Hope there's enough white stuff to make one more batch of snow ice cream 🍨
It's definitely not scared the public = Zero increase in firewood sales🪵
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 10:08:45 GMT -6
Oh boy the GEFS took a significant shift south, I know sleet affects it but it shows the potential mess this could be if I am reading it correctly. It did bump south with the surface low placement again. Surface low mean track is right across the boot heel. What does that mean sensible weather wise for us? Hard to say. Maybe ups the fzr/sleet potential.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 16, 2022 10:13:20 GMT -6
Going from thunderstorms to ZR would be fun.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 10:13:58 GMT -6
not really, i can go without thunder ice
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 10:23:25 GMT -6
The GEM holds course with Ice and Sleet
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 10:31:20 GMT -6
well the Ukie gets us good as well, bit south of its earlier run
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 16, 2022 10:32:00 GMT -6
UKMET is farther south as well and juiced up a bit. N half of CWA from SW to NE is looking like it could have a pretty impactful event on hand.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2022 10:42:03 GMT -6
The higher res models are starting to pick up on some intense banding within the cold sector. That should be fun.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 16, 2022 10:46:09 GMT -6
Yep, the Hi-res NAM crushes us with freezing rain and a decent amount of it. Starting to see a pattern as we get closer.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 10:50:42 GMT -6
Yep, the Hi-res NAM crushes us with freezing rain and a decent amount of it. Starting to see a pattern as we get closer. Lots of sleet on the 3km NAM as well
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 10:55:15 GMT -6
The entire watch area is a warning now
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2022 11:26:09 GMT -6
FWIW, the snow forecast from the NWS(that completely excluded IL) looks to be about 25-30miles too far NW with the southern gradient IMO. I think Chris has a petty good forecast, with impactful amounts of ice and 1-2 or potentially 3" of snow on top for the 70 corridor and points NW. Probably covered with an advisory, but a quicker changeover would potentially get it closer to warning criteria.
Definitely a south/flatter trend with the past couple cycles. But still a deepening storm, which should create strong lift within the cold sector as it passes. The mid-level Fgen looks pretty strong for a bit, coupled with strong upper divergence.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Feb 16, 2022 11:43:00 GMT -6
Dismissal tomorrow for the students looks like a mess. We don't have buses, so the kids will be getting picked up/walking in this stuff. Ugh.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 16, 2022 11:49:58 GMT -6
I am intrigued at how this plays out tomorrow. Rarely do we get a bigtime surprise with winter weather but who knows. Regardless, I think we have several more chances through end of February and March.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 16, 2022 11:51:53 GMT -6
The school questions are pretty simple IMO. If they don’t cancel classes and you’re worried about your child either driving themselves, riding the bus, or walking home……don’t send them to school. Schools should just call off tonight as I’m betting many do since virtual classes are available now. Why take the chance after so many bad calls in the recent past?!?!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 12:04:32 GMT -6
12z Euro I suspect it’s to heavy on fzr and more of that would be sleet
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 12:23:14 GMT -6
Wow thats quite impactful on the euro
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2022 12:40:51 GMT -6
It's conceivable we get a half inch of sleet or so I guess. That's warning criteria, for some reason, so who knows.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2022 12:44:01 GMT -6
It's conceivable we get a half inch of sleet or so I guess. That's warning criteria, for some reason, so who knows. I think the biggest reason is because it snarls roadways when it's more than a few tenths...especially when combined with ZR and snow on top.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 12:54:29 GMT -6
It’s funny to see all the social media weather sources that 3-5 days ago preached a huge warm up and almost winter cancel now are talking about the “big” turn of events and now it looks like 2-3 solid weeks of cold and stormy. Even certain people on here gave us the multiple “winter cancel “ posts last week, so funny !
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 12:58:39 GMT -6
Doesnt it seem colder temps are moving ahead of schedule slightly upstream. Front seems already near kc, st.joe already 49 at noon with north wind. I dont know may mean nothing.
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304
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Post by padlur on Feb 16, 2022 13:00:59 GMT -6
So has the system sped up or has the curve just flattened for these last minute changes that seem to be taking hold? Everything seemed so dialed in for mainly rain through most of tomorrow in the mid metro with a late changeover. Now it appears to be 6 hours sooner or so. Is it a trend or a blip in the data that will re-correct overnight?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2022 13:05:49 GMT -6
It’s funny to see all the social media weather sources that 3-5 days ago preached a huge warm up and almost winter cancel now are talking about the “big” turn of events and now it looks like 2-3 solid weeks of cold and stormy. Even certain people on here gave us the multiple “winter cancel “ posts last week, so funny ! Been the trend since early January...longer range models showing a pattern reversal with ridging across the Central/Eastern US only to show much more NW flow and cold air. Models have consistently struggled with the amplification of the N stream.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 13:29:17 GMT -6
18z hrrr extremely sleety and few inches of snow. Very interesting
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 13:36:21 GMT -6
The 12z Euro Ensemble (EPS) has barely wobbled from the earlier runs and is a dead match for the track of the 850 and surface lows for the axis of heaviest snow. Like I said last night, the ensemble is best used for finding the axis... but can be a little fuzzy or too robust on the edges because of the averaging. It can also downplay the narrow core of the axis for the same reason. Using my non-scientific approach to "cropping" the snow band...especially near the transition zone... the EPS strongly supports this morning's forecast update. Am I worried I chopped too much off on the southeast side of the snow band? Yes... always. But this is the one spot that we constantly over-forecast snowfall...just south of the transition zone. But truly believe the track of the key features and the speed this thing is moving will turn this more into a burst of sleet for the metro that will last for a couple of hours, topped off by a few hours of wind blown light snow and flurries. The amounts will be on the low end of the scale... but the impacts will be amplified by the time of day and falling temperatures.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 16, 2022 13:40:52 GMT -6
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service St Louis MO 138 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022
ILZ059-060-064-065-099>102-MOZ049-059>065-072-073-171345- /O.NEW.KLSX.WW.Y.0005.220217T1500Z-220218T0300Z/ Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL- Saint Clair-Monroe IL-Osage MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO- Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-Washington MO- Including the cities of Saint Charles, Cahokia, Litchfield, Alton, Washington, Saint Louis, Union, Belleville, Edwardsville, Sullivan, and Vandalia 138 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up to 3 inches, sleet accumulations around one half of an inch, and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Illinois. Portions of central and east central Missouri.
* WHEN...From 9 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday evening commute.
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