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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2022 13:42:04 GMT -6
looks like the warning was extended south some..now includes Jeff city ..they weren't even under a watch or anything. Losers
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 13:50:31 GMT -6
Yes NWS upped the ante some , there forecast looks much better than earlier
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 16, 2022 13:52:03 GMT -6
What happened? Jeffco was under a flood. Now it’s a winter weather advisory? Geez
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 13:53:34 GMT -6
18z NBM has 1-3” of snow across the metro.
Northern counties approaching double digits
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 13:55:07 GMT -6
What was nbm showing before snow?
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 13:55:32 GMT -6
What is the 15z sref showing? Anyone…
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 16, 2022 13:56:09 GMT -6
What is the 15z sref showing? Anyone… Mean 3.5" for airport. Down a bit from 9z |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 13:58:54 GMT -6
What was nbm showing before snow? 12z NBM had 1 to maybe 2” in the metro so a small uptick and shift south this run. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 13:59:27 GMT -6
Yes, if you threw out the two crazy non realist 10-12” amounts it was probably about 3” at 9z
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 14:00:21 GMT -6
Baby steps, at least it’s trending in our favor for once …
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 16, 2022 14:04:23 GMT -6
18z NAM is further south at hour 24 on the Missouri/Arkansas border. Would not be surprised if by morning, another layer of counties are added to the warning but we shall see.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2022 14:12:02 GMT -6
That was the fun part of the job |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 14:16:36 GMT -6
18z 3km NAM drops the sleet hammer across the area  |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2022 14:19:26 GMT -6
NAM 3 is a massive sleet fest in the metro
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 16, 2022 14:21:30 GMT -6
2-3" of sleet. Geez. Bet that will last longer then 2-3" of snow.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2022 14:21:33 GMT -6
Models seem to be bringing the 700 def zone further into the metro tomorrow afternoon... holding on to at least some light snow well into the evening.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 16, 2022 14:24:52 GMT -6
The S and E counties are now in the game for ice it appears.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 16, 2022 14:32:51 GMT -6
18Z hires nam has sleet with -40 to -50 omega.
Could drop 0.75" of QPF in 3 hours.
Possible thunder.
Wow.
Might get 5-1 ratios
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 14:34:13 GMT -6
Let’s keep bringing the low tracking down, 20-25 more miles by tomorrow morning. WelI, I guess it’s safe to say it was a model beat down by the GEM /Euro/Ukmet,/RGEM compared to what the GFS/NAM/GEFS/Icon had , yesterday at noon they all basically had zero snow or sleet in the metro with temps in the 50’s tomorrow afternoon. A 995 low crossing over us or even slightly west of us. I can’t believe how many GEFS ensembles and the op were so wrong even 48 hours out. Snow showed a couple individual ensemble charts with not one of them having any accumulation in the metro. Talk about some serious model flaws, wow !
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 14:37:46 GMT -6
Sleet is at least plowable, we had the last storm salted twice and plowed off all lots in 3-4 hours. I absolutely hate freezing rain, I would take a sleet fest all day long over a freezing rain storm.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 16, 2022 14:38:38 GMT -6
The models have been trending faster with the northern Branch and shearing out the Southern vort.
This is allowing enough cold to turn the triple point like area of precip to insanely heavy sleet.
If anyone kicks to snow under 40-50DBZ returns could see 1" in 12 mins but it looks mostly sleet
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 16, 2022 14:42:13 GMT -6
That is some heavy sleet in downtown STL.   |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 14:44:17 GMT -6
It’s always exciting when frivolous starts getting all technical and telling us all the possibilities like possible thunder sleet or 40-50 dbz
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 16, 2022 14:45:38 GMT -6
Oh my. Starting to sound like the kids won’t have school the next two days. We shall see.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 14:47:44 GMT -6
Don’t think I had a sleet squall line on my 2022 weather bingo card
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2022 15:01:45 GMT -6
Don’t think I had a sleet squall line on my 2022 weather bingo card Bring it on! |
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Post by REB on Feb 16, 2022 15:06:22 GMT -6
Do any of you have weather Link Live for your Davis weather stations?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 15:06:57 GMT -6
Let’s keep bringing the low tracking down, 20-25 more miles by tomorrow morning. WelI, I guess it’s safe to say it was a model beat down by the GEM /Euro/Ukmet,/RGEM compared to what the GFS/NAM/GEFS/Icon had , yesterday at noon they all basically had zero snow or sleet in the metro with temps in the 50’s tomorrow afternoon. A 995 low crossing over us or even slightly west of us. I can’t believe how many GEFS ensembles and the op were so wrong even 48 hours out. Snow showed a couple individual ensemble charts with not one of them having any accumulation in the metro. Talk about some serious model flaws, wow ! Careful, technically they're not wrong.... yet. lol |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 16, 2022 15:08:41 GMT -6
Let’s keep bringing the low tracking down, 20-25 more miles by tomorrow morning. WelI, I guess it’s safe to say it was a model beat down by the GEM /Euro/Ukmet,/RGEM compared to what the GFS/NAM/GEFS/Icon had , yesterday at noon they all basically had zero snow or sleet in the metro with temps in the 50’s tomorrow afternoon. A 995 low crossing over us or even slightly west of us. I can’t believe how many GEFS ensembles and the op were so wrong even 48 hours out. Snow showed a couple individual ensemble charts with not one of them having any accumulation in the metro. Talk about some serious model flaws, wow ! Careful, technically they're not wrong.... yet. lol Was just thinking that we haven’t really had a “bust” yet this season…….. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 15:11:39 GMT -6
That’s true Chris, we’ll know in about 18-24 hours:)
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