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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 20:02:07 GMT -6
I think we could be measuring sleet in inches tomorrow in the metro with these trends. A true sleetmageddon lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2022 20:04:29 GMT -6
nam appears a tick south too..
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 20:05:50 GMT -6
Looks like the NAM is a skosh colder, has fr rain at 9am. Edit..shut up 920. Lol It’s uncanny. This cracks me up every time. It even creeps me out sometimes |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 20:09:36 GMT -6
Verbatim that NAM run has 1-3” of sleet, ~0.25” of freezing rain, and 1-3” of snow in the metro
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 20:10:58 GMT -6
Wow
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 20:13:11 GMT -6
How’s the Hi res NAM looking?
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2022 20:16:47 GMT -6
hi res nam looks like a wall of sleet late morning to early afternoon. Looks convective on the models to me too
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2022 20:16:49 GMT -6
How’s the Hi res NAM looking? Has close to 3" sleet and 1-3 snow. Temps falling to freezing around 900am |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 20:19:05 GMT -6
Thanks guys
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2022 20:20:39 GMT -6
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Feb 16, 2022 20:23:33 GMT -6
That’s ridiculous. The GHD storm 1.0 had about 3 or 4 inches of sleet and it was brutal |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 16, 2022 20:25:10 GMT -6
That even has us in southern St.Clair with over an inch of sleet |
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 16, 2022 20:26:44 GMT -6
Can’t wait to see Glenn’s in house IBM model tonight. 😂
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2022 20:30:20 GMT -6
Models are really pumping up the Fgen forcing on the tail end of this storm...thinking that could drop several inches in the Metro if trends continue. The EC is bullish with this potential...the 18z run drops 2-4" in the Metro increasing to 6"+ across the N counties. Sleet contamination could temper totals though. The TROWAL will hang up the cold air until the lead disturbance passes through mid-morning. That's when the models are printing out some crazy strong forcing and QPF along with thunder potential with 100j/kg of CAPE noted over the Metro on the 18z EC run at 21z. Should be fun!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 16, 2022 20:31:13 GMT -6
3" Stripe of sleet right over my house. This system seems more like the GHD Storm than the one 2 weeks ago did. Actually has a decent low and everything. Obviously some differences of course as no 2 storms are rarely exactly alike. But this system is a mess and seems to have tricks up it's sleeve.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2022 20:32:44 GMT -6
Looks like HRRR RAP, NAM HIRES NAM all pound us with well beyond warning criteria just with sleet tomorrow..and the euro..interesting. This doesn't add in the ZR and snow
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 16, 2022 20:33:38 GMT -6
Also End of the month into March might be trending colder, even seeing hints of a SSW event in the stratosphere on the GFS that could disrupt the PV towards early March, which could then manifest as another powerful cold surge into early April. Lots of what ifs in there, but perhaps Winter isn't done afterall unlike what was thought a week or so ago.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 20:34:21 GMT -6
I might have to find the axe pick if the 3km NAM is correct
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2022 20:35:32 GMT -6
Models are really pumping up the Fgen forcing on the tail end of this storm...thinking that could drop several inches in the Metro if trends continue. The EC is bullish with this potential...the 18z run drops 2-4" in the Metro increasing to 6"+ across the N counties. Sleet contamination could temper totals though. The TROWAL will hang up the cold air until the lead disturbance passes through mid-morning. That's when the models are printing out some crazy strong forcing and QPF along with thunder potential with 100j/kg of CAPE noted over the Metro on the 18z EC run at 21z. Should be fun! Interesting the surface low is flat but deepening nicely |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 20:38:56 GMT -6
What’s 3km show snow?
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 20:41:36 GMT -6
Sometimes those deeping lows will keep the def zone going a little longer , depending on the strength and actual trajectory of the departing low
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2022 20:41:40 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 16, 2022 20:41:45 GMT -6
Moderate showery RAIN falling in west Belleville.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 16, 2022 20:43:31 GMT -6
Deformation band is skinny as a noddle, but quite vigorous, some lollipops of a foot plus in there, might still be a tier of counties too far north when going trends. |
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
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Post by BDS on Feb 16, 2022 20:45:16 GMT -6
Dang…Anything but sleet! Even halving these totals will lead to a disaster commute tomorrow and schools scurrying to dismiss early. |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2022 20:48:04 GMT -6
Kuchera numbers will likely be more accurate on the southern edge versus the middle of the band. This is more likely the numbers up north  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 16, 2022 20:55:23 GMT -6
Moderate showery RAIN falling in west Belleville. We had a pretty good batch come through my part of St. Peters between 7 and 8. Picked up maybe .10-15 really quick. |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 16, 2022 20:57:08 GMT -6
I might have to find the axe pick if the 3km NAM is correct I'm gonna take a long rope find a hill to sled down.  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 16, 2022 21:02:16 GMT -6
Here it is, my prediction for Belleville, IL (2.25" of RAIN, 1.5" of Sleet, .15" Ice Glaze, 1-2" of Snow on top)
Note a quicker change over to freezing or frozen precipitation or intensity could increase or decrease these numbers. Could be higher especially on the sleet and snow to a lesser extend or less if the cold air delays.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 16, 2022 21:06:06 GMT -6
Looks like the heaviest rain band has/is setting up just along and south of I-44 screaming up into Scott, AFB, IL
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