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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 16, 2022 21:11:10 GMT -6
RGEM flips back north. What a surprise.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 21:13:35 GMT -6
Rgem looks like a sleetfest to me. But north with snow, but not so much with all the sleet and ice in my opinion
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2022 21:16:03 GMT -6
Couldn't have said it better myself
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2022 21:17:06 GMT -6
RGEM flips back north. What a surprise. um..no |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 16, 2022 21:18:44 GMT -6
Models are really pumping up the Fgen forcing on the tail end of this storm...thinking that could drop several inches in the Metro if trends continue. The EC is bullish with this potential...the 18z run drops 2-4" in the Metro increasing to 6"+ across the N counties. Sleet contamination could temper totals though. The TROWAL will hang up the cold air until the lead disturbance passes through mid-morning. That's when the models are printing out some crazy strong forcing and QPF along with thunder potential with 100j/kg of CAPE noted over the Metro on the 18z EC run at 21z. Should be fun! Interesting the surface low is flat but deepening nicely The way it phases totally suppressed the Southern wave. If the northern developing TROUGH was a little weaker and slower we wouldn't be getting hardly any wintry weather. THE BLACK ARROW IS WHERE THE SYSTEMS WANT TO TO GO. THE PURPLE LINE IS WHERE THE SOUTHERN VOR MAXIMUM TRAVERSES. I think there is another 20-40 miles further South this may track and drag that deformation zone right down 70. With 44/64 corridors getting 2-3" of great backside powder. It also seems convection tonight is helping press the boundary later faster South be another factor the models have to catch up with. I TRULY BELIEVE THIS COULD COME THROUGH EVEN FURTHER FLAT. BRINGING A SURPRISE WHITE SETTING ALONG 44/70 AND NORTH   |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 21:19:53 GMT -6
It looks just like it has for days heavy sleet with 1-2” of snow at the end change over 9-11 am from north to south
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 16, 2022 21:25:01 GMT -6
Seeing 25-50 j/kg of elevated CAPE on the NAM as precip transitions to ZR then IP. Strong frontogenesis in the low to mid-level with very deep strong omega covering the mixed phase layer of the cloud. May see enough charge separation for a chance of some isolated thunder with the heavier sleet and freezing rain pockets.
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Feb 16, 2022 21:28:21 GMT -6
Glenn still didn’t mention sleet once. All freezing rain and snow
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2022 21:31:42 GMT -6
If it's all zr we are in trouble
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 21:33:32 GMT -6
Glenn still didn’t mention sleet once. All freezing rain and snow That seems odd |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 16, 2022 21:34:13 GMT -6
If it's all zr we are in trouble With it pouring it would have to get into the mid 20s fast for bad icing. I think the sleet will be so bad roads will be impassible in minutes. It will sleet so hard not won't be able to walk outside and not get wrecked. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2022 21:37:14 GMT -6
I don’t think he realizes what he’s saying, he basically said over and over rain to snow some freezing rain mixed in.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2022 21:39:34 GMT -6
The chief needs a talking too. He's sending the wrong message imo.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 21:48:06 GMT -6
Gfs holds course, maybe a touch snowier, as it puts that jagged 6 inch snow line in st.charles county. But we all know there will be a tin of sleet. Just stating what I am observing.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2022 21:48:53 GMT -6
Wow coz that snow line shifted south on hrrr
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2022 21:50:53 GMT -6
Wow coz that snow line shifted south on hrrr Deleted that post... that made zero sense. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2022 21:51:08 GMT -6
Nice 40" lollipop there on the HRRRRRRRRRRR
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 16, 2022 21:51:34 GMT -6
Nice 40" lollipop there on the HRRRRRRRRRRR Just going to say that, then the posts were removed. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 21:52:28 GMT -6
Models are definitely trending further south with that deformation snow tomorrow evening.
Looks like the northern 2/3rds of the area should get clipped by it
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 16, 2022 22:13:12 GMT -6
Ugh...for those of us who use the VRF cams at La Plata to see what is going on in the Kirksville area, we're out of luck until next winter as the static cams are out until summer for station renovations. All that is left is the PTZ can at the east end that is usually pretty fuzzy.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 22:20:18 GMT -6
Nice 40" lollipop there on the HRRRRRRRRRRR Am I missing something? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 16, 2022 22:20:24 GMT -6
Glenn just showed .25 ice and 4.5” of snow for downtown.
Referenced in house model that just came in. Almost sounded surprised when he was showing the 4.5” like he hadn’t seen it.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 22:21:58 GMT -6
03z RAP shows a ton of sleet in the metro and a couple inches of snow
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2022 22:23:14 GMT -6
Nice 40" lollipop there on the HRRRRRRRRRRR Am I missing something? Posted a snow map from the HRRR... but it was skewed a bit. I deleted it. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 16, 2022 22:23:22 GMT -6
03z RAP shows a ton of sleet in the metro and a couple inches of snow Bring it. |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 16, 2022 22:28:10 GMT -6
Yikes, pouring 7 miles west of De Soto and naturally the radar looks nothing like it does when it snows. I'm about to get dumped on. Pond should be full my morning. Nothing soaking in to this "moist" ground.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 16, 2022 22:28:59 GMT -6
The HRRR looks like it has an erroneous post frontal warm layer that's 2-3F warmer than the sorrounding temps. It slides WSW off lake Michigan pre day break and reaches the STL metro about 10AM and holds temps up an extra 2-3 hours. Click this link weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/#To to HRRR 03Z RUN. CLICK MIDWEST VIEW. RUN THE SLIDE WHILE LOOKING AT THE 2M TEMPS? THAT CAN'T BE LEGIT NO WAY THAT WOULDN'T WASH OUT |
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 16, 2022 22:31:56 GMT -6
Yikes, pouring 7 miles west of De Soto and naturally the radar looks nothing like it does when it snows. I'm about to get dumped on. Pond should be full my morning. Nothing soaking in to this "moist" ground. I still have snow piles in my yard and it's already very squishy. About to get worse. |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2022 22:36:24 GMT -6
HRR has heavy hit early afternoon.  |
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Post by Ofallon mo weather fan on Feb 16, 2022 22:38:38 GMT -6
Saw this on their Twitter account
NWS St. Louis @nwsst Louis
Cold front made its way through Quincy, IL about an hour ago. The temperature dropped 9 degrees in 15 minutes. It will continue a slower drop over the next several hours with rain changing to wintry precipitation. #ilwx
9:46 PM 2/16/22 Twitter Web App
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