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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2022 22:43:07 GMT -6
Hrrrrrr has been creeping that snow line alittle further south each run
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 16, 2022 22:45:12 GMT -6
So if we get 3" of QPF from a little after midnight through tomorrow a little after noon.
With temps dropping to about 10-15F by Saturday morning?
Like what kind of flash freezing will happen??
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 16, 2022 22:52:25 GMT -6
GEFS IS 30 MILES FURTHER SOUTH THAN 18z with snow band.
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 16, 2022 22:54:56 GMT -6
So if we get 3" of QPF from a little after midnight through tomorrow a little after noon. With temps dropping to about 10-15F by Saturday morning? Like what kind of flash freezing will happen?? With the wind speeds and rapid dew point falls there may be a lot of drying that limits it to puddles. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 16, 2022 23:18:14 GMT -6
Cold front at the river up in Burlington, IA
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Post by ams3389 on Feb 16, 2022 23:35:17 GMT -6
Interesting trends continue… I sure do appreciate and thank everyone for their knowledge. Always great learning from a far!
Does anyone know STL Weather Man on Facebook? I feel like a troll who just posts maps with no real educational background.
This site for me has been a safe place to learn and grow in my love for weather. Thank you all again.
Team Wilson! Oh and I still think Chris should be Chief! What the heck is an extreme weather specialist anyway? Are other news stations around the country trending their best met into this category?
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Post by TK on Feb 17, 2022 0:02:16 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 17, 2022 0:03:21 GMT -6
00z Euro  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 0:17:56 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 0:27:54 GMT -6
The 00z model is virtually unchanged from last night with the tracks of the 850mb and surface lows. The ensemble of those tracks continues to point to an axis of heavy snow from south of KC up into Pike County... which is in strong agreement with the EPS 18z snowfall output. Assuming the edges are too robust again...especially on the south side... there will be a quick taper off south of the Cuivre River of snow.
This definitely has the look of a quick switch to mainly sleet around midday for metro STL. It's just so hard to get decent snow with an 850mb low passing between Festus and Ste Genevieve...and a surface low that tracks to near near Paducah.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 0:46:06 GMT -6
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 17, 2022 3:04:37 GMT -6
It's pouring rain here...☔️
House Springs MO
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 17, 2022 4:44:16 GMT -6
Down to 35° @ 4:45
Didn’t think I’d be that cool already at this time.
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Lori41
Weather Weenie
Winter is my favorite time of year!
Posts: 24 
Snowfall Events: 2014
Jan 5th 14"
2018
traces..
April 1st 1.8"
2022
Jan. traces..
Feb.3-4 7"
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Post by Lori41 on Feb 17, 2022 5:32:33 GMT -6
At 4am, Roxana was at 42*. Now, at 5:30am we are 38*
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2022 5:42:06 GMT -6
33 and light rain wentzville
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Post by snowday_lover on Feb 17, 2022 5:49:04 GMT -6
Woke up to Iron County being added to the winter weather advisory but I can’t see where my forecast changed..  |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 17, 2022 5:52:50 GMT -6
35 and light rain here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2022 6:19:59 GMT -6
Reporting the same in Brighton. Push of cold air has slowed a bit ahead of the lead wave. But everything looks to be on track for a fast and furious hit of winter weather in a few hours or so. |
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 17, 2022 6:23:50 GMT -6
I have to work in Farmington from 9-6 today. Anyone care to venture a guess as to whether or not the drive home (or there) will be a disaster? I can stay home if I must but hate missing a day's pay!
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2022 6:50:29 GMT -6
It looks like Troy Mo and warrenton are down to 32 according to My weather channel phone app. We’re definitely a little colder than models had forecast. The rap and hrrr are initializing to warm each run by a few degrees. I agree with Brtn, the front and progression of cold air will slow down some as the low begins to eject and move our way. All the 6z data continues the overnight trends and several have the def zone coming through the metro for a few hours.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 17, 2022 6:56:49 GMT -6
I’ve plateaued at 34° for the last 90 minutes with light rain.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 17, 2022 6:57:42 GMT -6
33 with rain. Yes i was expecting to still be 40.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2022 6:58:56 GMT -6
I have to work in Farmington from 9-6 today. Anyone care to venture a guess as to whether or not the drive home (or there) will be a disaster? I can stay home if I must but hate missing a day's pay! Ozark hills and ice is a bad combination. I'd be calling off myself...the money ain't worth the risk. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 17, 2022 7:04:10 GMT -6
Lot of lightning flashes in the bootheel
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2022 7:04:10 GMT -6
Your probably fine until lunchtime, if work a half day than head home
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Feb 17, 2022 7:05:26 GMT -6
The freeze line has definitely stalled. Been at 33 for an hour and looks like Troy is bouncing back and forth
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Post by REB on Feb 17, 2022 7:05:51 GMT -6
temp is 37.8 degrees. 2.34 inches of rain so far.
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304
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Post by padlur on Feb 17, 2022 7:12:08 GMT -6
1.6" rain so far and 36 degrees here in Ballwin. Very light rain the past hour or so. Light winds.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 17, 2022 7:13:12 GMT -6
One thing to note. Winds out of the north are really picking up in st.peters the freezeline will likely blast through in my opinion around 9 or 10 am to at least the missouri river
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228
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Post by steve on Feb 17, 2022 7:14:51 GMT -6
Our hopes at that “surprised” heavier snow line I think is fading fast. The models were trending south but never underestimate how stubborn that warm air stays around here!
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