|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 17, 2022 7:19:58 GMT -6
I think chris map is perfect 1 to 4 in st.charles, with 1 inch of mess to the south, and 4 to 7 to the north. Also friend in kansas city said the dry air is really killing the storm there. Heavy snow for 1 hour, now spitting flurries. About 1.5 inches is all they have at this point. We are not the only ones who struggle with snow lol
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2022 7:23:40 GMT -6
Our hopes at that “surprised” heavier snow line I think is fading fast. The models were trending south but never underestimate how stubborn that warm air stays around here! One thing I'm keeping in mind with this one is diurnal swing...we're fighting the insolation despite cloud cover and precipitation. It's not a slam dunk like GHD was, so there is bust potential for snowfall near the Metro. But this is a very dynamic system and things can change quickly. Definitely a nowcast situation. |
|
|
|
Post by goutkvols KCMO on Feb 17, 2022 7:27:19 GMT -6
Thundersnow in KC this morning.
We picked up a quick 4 inches in 2 hours in the Northland area.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 17, 2022 7:28:07 GMT -6
You must me in south kc. My friend is in kansas city kansas
|
|
steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
|
Post by steve on Feb 17, 2022 7:33:42 GMT -6
Been sitting at 33 since 5:30
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2022 7:33:55 GMT -6
Yes I heard kc is a hot mess on the roads heavy snow several inches in a few hours
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2022 7:34:51 GMT -6
Also kc is on the north western edge of the storm
|
|
|
|
Post by goutkvols KCMO on Feb 17, 2022 7:35:21 GMT -6
You must me in south kc. My friend is in kansas city kansas Im in the northern part of the city by MCI Airport |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 17, 2022 7:36:06 GMT -6
Crazy. Is there a sharp drop off in snow on the kansas side?
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2022 7:37:14 GMT -6
Thundersnow in KC this morning. We picked up a quick 4 inches in 2 hours in the Northland area. Nice... |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 17, 2022 7:38:12 GMT -6
I watch the temps in moscow mills for the st.charles county area in the Missouri agg site. That site dropped from 33 to 31 in the last hour. The freeze line is on the move. Should be entering northern st.charles county as we speak.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2022 7:39:25 GMT -6
Crazy. Is there a sharp drop off in snow on the kansas side? Yes, weaker lift and dry air advection is creating a pretty sharp gradient on the N side of the snow shield. Looking like a pretty narrow band...maybe as little as ~50mi wide tapering to minor amounts on either side. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2022 7:43:59 GMT -6
I watch the temps in moscow mills for the st.charles county area in the Missouri agg site. That site dropped from 33 to 31 in the last hour. The freeze line is on the move. Should be entering northern st.charles county as we speak. Temp dropped a couple degrees here in Brighton last hour or so...the cold air at the surface is creeping southward for sure. Last check was 33* and like you said, a stiff N breeze. But the question is how long the warm wedge hangs on. Looking like convection could modulate that some locally...I'd bet on a pretty splotchy looking snow field on the S end which is what the HRRRRRR was hinting at with all those bullseyes near 70. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2022 7:48:55 GMT -6
I haven’t looked at the HRRR or any hi res models, is everything still on track, the National radar looks awesome
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 17, 2022 7:52:38 GMT -6
Going to take a while.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 17, 2022 7:54:19 GMT -6
Honestly all is on track. Freezline was not supposed to be to the city until noon or 1 p.m.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 17, 2022 7:55:50 GMT -6
Thats what im expecting.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 17, 2022 7:58:20 GMT -6
Insolation will be a factor and caa should slow down.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2022 7:58:27 GMT -6
Radar out of SGF shows the warm layer collapsing on CC product with intense lift and convection. Giddy up!
|
|
lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
|
Post by lunchladyd on Feb 17, 2022 7:58:31 GMT -6
Reporting 30 degrees and freezing rain.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 17, 2022 8:06:03 GMT -6
Id say it reaches th st.peters ofallon line by 10 to 11. I am 32.9 on the thermometer the convection will help as some have alluded too
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Feb 17, 2022 8:08:17 GMT -6
St. Clair county is in prime dry slot position.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Feb 17, 2022 8:08:49 GMT -6
Man, next week looks really interesting. Multiple waves, blocking in place, overrunning event, and PWATS through the roof once again. Only 6 days out.
|
|
|
|
Post by pbc12871 on Feb 17, 2022 8:11:24 GMT -6
Brtn is right..those hills in St.Francois county are no fun when it's snowing/sleeting. Looks like I will be home today.
|
|
|
|
Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Feb 17, 2022 8:19:42 GMT -6
Brtn is right..those hills in St.Francois county are no fun when it's snowing/sleeting. Looks like I will be home today. Where is Pbc and what have you done with him? You are supposed to be complaining about your lack of appreciable precipitation in Ballwin. 😎 |
|
|
|
Post by pbc12871 on Feb 17, 2022 8:22:38 GMT -6
I got my snow for the winter with the last one. The rest is gravy lol. I honestly didn't think we were going to see anything at all this winter!
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 17, 2022 8:35:44 GMT -6
Guidance keeping the southeastern half of the metro all rain until the end of the event with only a dusting to at most an inch on the backside deformation zone.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 8:36:52 GMT -6
Guidance keeping the southeastern half of the metro all rain until the end of the event with only a dusting to at most an inch on the backside deformation zone. Which is what the forecast said all along. So we are on track. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 8:37:43 GMT -6
The fast forward motion of the WAA lift will be a big limiting factor today.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 17, 2022 8:38:46 GMT -6
Guidance keeping the southeastern half of the metro all rain until the end of the event with only a dusting to at most an inch on the backside deformation zone. Which is what the forecast said all along. So we are on track. If Belleville stays all rain your forecast will be spot on at least here. Overall a great forecast. Just wish we got more thunder. Maybe later on in the season. |
|
