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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 17, 2022 8:39:13 GMT -6
Models really over did it on the sleet yesterday big time.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2022 8:46:06 GMT -6
Looks like the prime time for thunder potential will be around the noon hour or a little after. Latest HRRR shows convection wrapping into the cold sector via TROWAL forcing...and also shows the dynamical cooling potential with the h85 0* isotherm crashing SE through the Metro. This is followed by a pretty intense looking Fgen mesoband along 44/70 and points N. Everything is on track here, folks.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 17, 2022 8:51:37 GMT -6
Radar is looking noice!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2022 8:52:15 GMT -6
Looking at radar and satellite, it appears the lead wave is near Rolla approaching STL. That will bring intense lift and a changeover to PL/SN along and to it's north once it begins to pass. Then the primary deformation/FGEN band will sweep through during the afternoon, potentially dropping a few inches along it's path. That's the way I'm seeing this play out. The SE sections are definitely in a bad spot for any appreciable snowfall with the dry slot aiming towards you guys and the warm mid-level air lingering. There may be a zone of impactful ZR somewhere in between...but I think sleet is a bigger concern.
Good luck and be safe out there!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2022 8:53:00 GMT -6
It sure is!
Locked and loaded.
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Feb 17, 2022 8:54:42 GMT -6
34 and light to moderate rain in Ballwin.
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Post by birddog on Feb 17, 2022 8:56:50 GMT -6
.68" of rain here. 32.1° wind gusts up to 20 out of the North.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 17, 2022 8:57:54 GMT -6
when will this crap go over to sleet here...just pouring
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228
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Post by steve on Feb 17, 2022 8:58:00 GMT -6
Just a little Sleet is starting to mix in here in Wentzville
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 17, 2022 8:58:05 GMT -6
Models really over did it on the sleet yesterday big time. Which is illustrative that ppl need to quit with their weather apps that derive output from a model and listen to chris. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 17, 2022 8:59:42 GMT -6
Models really over did it on the sleet yesterday big time. Which is illustrative that ppl need to quit with their weather apps that derive output from a model and listen to chris. Shenanigans |
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Post by jeepers on Feb 17, 2022 9:05:22 GMT -6
33 on the Davis.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 17, 2022 9:05:53 GMT -6
Have hit freezing here in lake St Louis
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 17, 2022 9:07:03 GMT -6
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2022 9:07:15 GMT -6
Folks South of 70 aren't getting Jack.
The mid level features are ripping the dry slot North faster and farther than they modeled last night.
It's a big change for the immediate metro.
Ic your live in Wentzville to Troy MO to Jerseyville IL you will probably see an hour maybe more of sleet.
If you live along 44/64 you might see a brief changeover to sleet.
Folks along and North of 70 might get an inch of snow this afternoon.
44/64 maybe sleet and snow showers no accumulation
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 17, 2022 9:09:13 GMT -6
Latest HRRRrrrr is showing a lot of sleet in the metro brteeen 10am and 1pm
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 17, 2022 9:09:24 GMT -6
Just drove to ofallon ice forming on car and sleet starting. Here we go
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 17, 2022 9:10:44 GMT -6
Folks South of 70 aren't getting Jack. The mid level features are ripping the dry slot North faster and farther than they modeled last night. It's a big change for the immediate metro. Ic your live in Wentzville to Troy MO to Jerseyville IL you will probably see an hour maybe more of sleet. If you live along 44/64 you might see a brief changeover to sleet. Folks along and North of 70 might get an inch of snow this afternoon. 44/64 maybe sleet and snow showers no accumulation Latest HRRR and RAP beg to differ. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 17, 2022 9:14:01 GMT -6
RGEM on the north camp, actual frozen line doesn't past south of I-44/I-70 (MO/IL respectively) Keeps us all (metro and points southeastward) rain and we miss the deformation zone north of I-70. Next...  |
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455 
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Post by luvhockey on Feb 17, 2022 9:17:08 GMT -6
Very tiny sleet on my windshield mixed with the rain in Arnold.
Rain is "thick" too if that makes sense
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2022 9:18:11 GMT -6
Wind backing out of the NE and pressure falling ahead of that lead wave.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 17, 2022 9:20:41 GMT -6
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399
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Post by lunchladyd on Feb 17, 2022 9:22:33 GMT -6
Pouring sleet here.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 17, 2022 9:23:07 GMT -6
925 steadily getting colder. Would think sleet will become more widespread the next couple hours  |
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228
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Post by steve on Feb 17, 2022 9:24:12 GMT -6
Sleet is pinging here in Wentzville now
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on Feb 17, 2022 9:24:17 GMT -6
Ice forming on bushes and sleet mixing in on the south side of Troy, MO
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Feb 17, 2022 9:25:39 GMT -6
Heavy rain starting to mix with sleet in WashMO.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2022 9:28:51 GMT -6
Things are right on track , I just saw on the MoDOT cams heavy sleet just west of Warrenton, they were plowing the sleet off the highway. Temps have begun to slide again after a couple hour hold.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 17, 2022 9:29:29 GMT -6
Sleet st.peters 32
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Feb 17, 2022 9:34:23 GMT -6
Pretty much all sleet now. This is going to get bad fast if it keeps up this hard.
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