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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 29, 2022 20:22:04 GMT -6
The bigger the squiggle... the bigger the shake... that's about all there is that I can tell you.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 29, 2022 20:41:05 GMT -6
PDS tornado warning in KS.
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 29, 2022 21:00:18 GMT -6
I would think SPC will pull that slight risk back further west tonight...
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 29, 2022 21:10:54 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 29, 2022 22:01:26 GMT -6
WxChannel is showing incredible more video... classic plains tornado with the clear sky behind it.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 29, 2022 22:16:21 GMT -6
I would think SPC will pull that slight risk back further west tonight... Wouldn’t be the worst idea  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 29, 2022 22:48:36 GMT -6
I pulled my risk back to highway 67 including Saint Louis city and county on the 11 PM.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 30, 2022 0:43:18 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 30, 2022 7:30:03 GMT -6
Looks like the severe threat today may be a bit more robust than it was expected to be. Morning convection is moving out with a pocket of clearing working up 44 towards the metro. That should provide better destabilization for the front to work with later today.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Apr 30, 2022 8:02:53 GMT -6
Yea the clouds are thinning out quickly behind the rain this morning
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 30, 2022 8:35:25 GMT -6
Looks like there will be a fairly narrow window for potentially tornadic supercells to develop across far E MO into IL early this afternoon. Shear vectors are fairly perpendicular to the boundary with slightly backed surface winds veering with height...should promote initially discrete or semi-discrete storm mode with rotating updrafts...but instability will be pretty modest. HRRR shows the storms not really maturing until they cross the river so it'll be a close call for the Metro. I like Chris's idea of 67 and points east being the favored region today. May have to get out and chase if storms get frisky later on...
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 30, 2022 8:41:31 GMT -6
NWS weather story says 12 to 2pm... is that a fair time frame?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 30, 2022 9:02:21 GMT -6
NWS weather story says 12 to 2pm... is that a fair time frame? Yes, for points along/W of the river. 2-4pm seems prime for the IL side. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 30, 2022 9:47:44 GMT -6
Storms threat appears isolated and not widespread. I hate these things that may develop overhead. Makes decesion making much more complicated.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 30, 2022 11:07:03 GMT -6
showers developing over union lol
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 30, 2022 11:39:39 GMT -6
Very overcast here all of a sudden
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 30, 2022 12:11:14 GMT -6
Looking like a nothing burger for the metro...organized convection struggling to develop so far
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 30, 2022 12:14:49 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 30, 2022 12:50:13 GMT -6
Tornado watch issued north and east in IL.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 30, 2022 13:05:18 GMT -6
Amazing how storms just skirt all around the Metro.
The original forecast for today was spot on, really...
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 30, 2022 13:09:08 GMT -6
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Post by amstilost on Apr 30, 2022 13:15:33 GMT -6
Why did the SPC Watch Issuance disco show a large area in eastern and south eastern MO but then the Tornado Watch is issued further north and east completely out of the SPC disco. Am I missing a piece of info somewhere?
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 30, 2022 13:23:37 GMT -6
Sun is back out over here where no one lives.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 30, 2022 13:29:52 GMT -6
Why did the SPC Watch Issuance disco show a large area in eastern and south eastern MO but then the Tornado Watch is issued further north and east completely out of the SPC disco. Am I missing a piece of info somewhere? 2 watches issued |
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Post by dragons7stegen on Apr 30, 2022 13:37:26 GMT -6
Starting to get worried down this way. I’m curious between the updraft chart posted yesterday, the cells ability to push further north with each radar run and our illustrious history to have tornado ally skirt across St. Mary’s (city) and Perry county to our south if this continues to keep me concerned until dinner time. Sun has been out most of the day in Ste. Gen and has been windier in last couple hours around here. Hope we can avoid the super cells but I guess time will tell what this produces.
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Post by amstilost on Apr 30, 2022 13:58:09 GMT -6
I just seen that and I said to myself that was the missing info.😁
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Bruce - N0NSR
Weather Weenie
Posts: 57 
Snowfall Events: 2.5" - Jan 15, 2015
0.5" - Feb 4, 2015
2.0" - Nov 14-15, 2018
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Post by Bruce - N0NSR on Apr 30, 2022 14:27:46 GMT -6
Starting to get worried down this way. I’m curious between the updraft chart posted yesterday, the cells ability to push further north with each radar run and our illustrious history to have tornado ally skirt across St. Mary’s (city) and Perry county to our south if this continues to keep me concerned until dinner time. Sun has been out most of the day in Ste. Gen and has been windier in last couple hours around here. Hope we can avoid the super cells but I guess time will tell what this produces. Same here. We're about halfway between Farmington and Fredericktown; the sun has mostly been out for the past few hours and the wind is picking up. We've been bracketed multiple times by tornados the past few years - one of the October 24th tornados went about a mile north of me, and the one that hit Black River Electric, about 8 miles south. Never ever will I forget pulling into Black River about 15 minutes after the tornado hit and seeing all the damage. |
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Post by dragons7stegen on Apr 30, 2022 14:46:39 GMT -6
Does the storm northeast of Centerville and southwest of Farmington look to be forming any rotation ? Looks like it’s more intense after last radar scan.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 30, 2022 15:07:18 GMT -6
Does the storm northeast of Centerville and southwest of Farmington look to be forming any rotation ? Looks like it’s more intense after last radar scan. Just on this last scan yes |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 30, 2022 15:09:08 GMT -6
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