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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 11, 2022 21:25:12 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 11, 2022 21:28:48 GMT -6
The base reports no significant damage at this time!
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 11, 2022 21:45:11 GMT -6
Wow
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Apr 12, 2022 6:47:17 GMT -6
Just had a gully washer here ….. water standing everywhere
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 12, 2022 7:06:29 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 12, 2022 9:10:49 GMT -6
With the orientation of the front tomorrow from southwest to northeast surging southeast and shear vectors mostly parallel to the front I suspect there will only be a very short window for storms to remain discrete. Most likely storm mode will become messy then quickly transition to linear which may mitigate the tornado threat somewhat. However, with moderate instability and very strong shear there could easily be a few, possibly significant, QLCS tornadoes along with a heightened severe wind threat.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 12, 2022 9:20:17 GMT -6
With the orientation of the front tomorrow from southwest to northeast surging southeast and shear vectors mostly parallel to the front I suspect there will only be a very short window for storms to remain discrete. Most likely storm mode will become messy then quickly transition to linear which may mitigate the tornado threat somewhat. However, with moderate instability and very strong shear there could easily be a few, possibly significant, QLCS tornadoes along with a heightened severe wind threat. Linear storm mode is terrible and way too common around here. Could be a decent chase in east central mo |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 12, 2022 9:28:04 GMT -6
Or wait on the il side and hope for the best. Might make that play. Storm mode might be messier, but the roads and views are decent. Might try this one after a long hiatus.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 12, 2022 9:48:50 GMT -6
Unless the clouds break we may have trouble getting to the forecasted upper 70s today.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 12, 2022 10:02:00 GMT -6
Gonna warm up pretty quickly later. Tonight is going to be warm and muggy. Ac time.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 12, 2022 10:47:07 GMT -6
Sun poking through some breaks here.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 12, 2022 10:48:58 GMT -6
Or wait on the il side and hope for the best. Might make that play. Storm mode might be messier, but the roads and views are decent. Might try this one after a long hiatus. Ya according to the SPC placement and talk. Seems like tornado threat is pretty worrisome here with their placement of the 10% hatched area from just west of immediate STL area thru Central KY, TN. Down to northern LA. Wind threat of 30% from just east of here STL to pretty much the same area mentioned above. And large hail of 15% down around the boothill. So I'd say if they do infact upgrade to a Moderate(Not that the level matters). It will probably be either just east and south of us. But could include parts of our area.    |
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 12, 2022 11:12:28 GMT -6
From the fox2 Afternoon forecast it sounds like it starts off Isolated on the Missouri/St. Louis side and explodes on the ILL side.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 12, 2022 11:37:26 GMT -6
Tomorrow upgraded to a moderate risk for portions of the area driven by a 45% # wind  |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 12, 2022 13:40:50 GMT -6
NWS Conf call at 13:30 today, nothing that hasn't really already been put out their already, so no need to recap, however they do have a heightened concern over timing, as this event is likely to impact the area earlier than normal and schools and businesses will likely still be occupied. Latest Sitrep covers updates: www.weather.gov/media/lsx/DssPacket.pdfThe NWS did ask that the preparedness info in the below slides be aggressively shared with the public, so here you are  Edit: I cant seem to get the individual slides to post correctly, please visit NWS STL Twitter twitter.com/NWSStLouis?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor/photo/1 |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 12, 2022 13:52:01 GMT -6
What is the time line?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 12, 2022 13:54:27 GMT -6
Metro area could really dodge a bullet on this, but the metro east and especially southeastern tier of counties is under the gun. Models seem to be heading towards a faster exit from the area, but if incorrect or too fast then things could get ugly. Timing is key!
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Post by ajd446 on Apr 12, 2022 13:57:07 GMT -6
I feel the missouri side of the metro may have the greatest tornado concern because they may be more supercells then linear closer to the initiation point. Just my 2 cents
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 12, 2022 14:07:56 GMT -6
Metro area could really dodge a bullet on this, but the metro east and especially southeastern tier of counties is under the gun. Models seem to be heading towards a faster exit from the area, but if incorrect or too fast then things could get ugly. Timing is key! I hope thats what happens. |
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Post by dschreib on Apr 12, 2022 14:14:31 GMT -6
Let's not talk about dodging bullets just yet. A lot of people scan this board, and no need to have anyone let their guard down prematurely.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 12, 2022 14:20:21 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 12, 2022 14:21:52 GMT -6
Metro area could really dodge a bullet on this, but the metro east and especially southeastern tier of counties is under the gun. Models seem to be heading towards a faster exit from the area, but if incorrect or too fast then things could get ugly. Timing is key! Per the NWS, actually what happens with the storms overnight (or lack therof) is the primary concern on how tomorrow may play out. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 12, 2022 14:22:02 GMT -6
Let's not talk about dodging bullets just yet. A lot of people scan this board, and no need to have anyone let their guard down prematurely. I’m not goingggo let anything down tomorrow. Just saying I hope. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 12, 2022 14:24:37 GMT -6
Let's not talk about dodging bullets just yet. A lot of people scan this board, and no need to have anyone let their guard down prematurely. Agree. Too many possibilities and too soon to say anybody has dodged anything. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 12, 2022 14:28:41 GMT -6
lol
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 12, 2022 14:50:18 GMT -6
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Post by jeepers on Apr 12, 2022 14:53:06 GMT -6
Metro area could really dodge a bullet on this, but the metro east and especially southeastern tier of counties is under the gun. Models seem to be heading towards a faster exit from the area, but if incorrect or too fast then things could get ugly. Timing is key! Per the NWS, actually what happens with the storms overnight (or lack therof) is the primary concern on how tomorrow may play out. Which is oftentimes the case. Can make the difference between rainy weather and a unwelcome hoohaa. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 12, 2022 18:15:42 GMT -6
I still think STL metro needs to be ready as early as 10AM. These things always seem to be faster than progged. Immediate metro and into IL are my greatest concerns.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 12, 2022 18:28:20 GMT -6
I still think STL metro needs to be ready as early as 10AM. These things always seem to be faster than progged. Immediate metro and into IL are my greatest concerns. As always... I be ready to give updates sir. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 12, 2022 18:44:06 GMT -6
Wow!! North Dakota appears lined up for an incredible blizzard.
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