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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 8:01:36 GMT -6
NWS STL will be updating their messaging soon to reflect the trends in guidance by HRRR. Quick synopsis is that storms entering SW MO from OK will build northeast along I-44 this morning with the northern extent reaching the STL Metro by the lunch hour. The front is making steady progress east and the amount of convective debris/cloud cover will limit insolation and instability. The threat of severe weather late this morning and this afternoon remains for locations largely from STL and points south and east. "IF" this line of thunderstorms becomes severe it will be capable of producing severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail and a few tornadoes.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 13, 2022 8:02:27 GMT -6
NWS STL will be updating their messaging soon to reflect the trends in guidance by HRRR. Quick synopsis is that storms entering SW MO from OK will build northeast along I-44 this morning with the northern extent reaching the STL Metro by the lunch hour. The front is making steady progress east and the amount of convective debris/cloud cover will limit insolation and instability. The threat of severe weather late this morning and this afternoon remains for locations largely from STL and points south and east. "IF" this line of thunderstorms becomes severe it will be capable of producing severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail and a few tornadoes. Two different times? Or in concert with one another? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 13, 2022 8:14:24 GMT -6
Man, these little cells down here ahead of the line are packing quite a punch considering their size, time of day, etc. Makes me think there's plenty of juice to go around.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 8:18:25 GMT -6
NWS STL will be updating their messaging soon to reflect the trends in guidance by HRRR. Quick synopsis is that storms entering SW MO from OK will build northeast along I-44 this morning with the northern extent reaching the STL Metro by the lunch hour. The front is making steady progress east and the amount of convective debris/cloud cover will limit insolation and instability. The threat of severe weather late this morning and this afternoon remains for locations largely from STL and points south and east. "IF" this line of thunderstorms becomes severe it will be capable of producing severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail and a few tornadoes. Two different times? Or in concert with one another? Once the front clears the metro around midday the storm threat will no longer exist. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 8:21:10 GMT -6
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Apr 13, 2022 8:22:34 GMT -6
Just poured rain here and quite a lot of wind. Silex area.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 8:24:23 GMT -6
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT WED APR 13 2022
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STILL FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, LARGELY
FOR AREAS FROM THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. AS OF 14Z, THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, JUST EAST OF
KIRKSVILLE AND JUST WEST OF COLUMBIA. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF IT HAVE WEAKENED A BIT, BUT THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND
INSTABILITY. LATEST HRRR HAS INITIALIZED THE CURRENT CONVECTION
WELL AND INDICATES THAT THE STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE STL METRO AREA BY 17Z-18Z TIMEFRAME.
IF THE LINE OF STORMS BECOME SEVERE, THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS GUSTS, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
ANOTHER ISSUE THAT HAS NOT BEEN ADDRESSED IS THE PROBABILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT ANYWHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS AND RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 13, 2022 8:38:14 GMT -6
HREF is showing some strong helicity tracks up 44 through this afternoon  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 13, 2022 9:05:42 GMT -6
Thank you, thank you guyatacomputer. You are very welcome. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 9:22:20 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 13, 2022 9:26:20 GMT -6
can't wait or the idiots on fb bashing the mets. Lame
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 13, 2022 9:29:30 GMT -6
Tornado warning probably warranted with the storm west of Mountain Grove...definitely starting to spin up.
Along and SE of 44/70 is looking like the prime zone for sure.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 13, 2022 9:42:50 GMT -6
Tornado warning probably warranted with the storm west of Mountain Grove...definitely starting to spin up. Along and SE of 44/70 is looking like the prime zone for sure. Some big looping hodographs ahead of that line coming up 44
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 13, 2022 9:45:09 GMT -6
can't wait or the idiots on fb bashing the mets. Lame I can... |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 13, 2022 9:46:25 GMT -6
can't wait or the idiots on fb bashing the mets. Lame Well, the major media outlets got everybody all fired up. Places cancelled events, etc.... Setup didn't warrant all of the hype considering the moderate while close to STL, never covered the majority of the population. Setup was always questionable with the morning convection and debris. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 13, 2022 9:51:47 GMT -6
I really hope that damn thing stays linear and the worst we have to worry about is a quick spin-up QLCS tornado or two.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Apr 13, 2022 9:55:30 GMT -6
that line in southern missouri marching along nicely. Placement of moderate area looks solid for sure. It's always a fine line between emphasizing bad weather and causing people to get overly concerned. Such a thankless job mets have.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 13, 2022 9:55:49 GMT -6
I'm not sure what to make of those cells over the eastern Ozarks out ahead of the main line. They concern me a bit though.
Man, I used to get all jazzed up about this stuff. Ever since 2/28/17 I don't want to see it at all. That and having a kid changed my perspective.
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Post by weatherman222 on Apr 13, 2022 9:57:48 GMT -6
can't wait or the idiots on fb bashing the mets. Lame Well, the major media outlets got everybody all fired up. Places cancelled events, etc.... Setup didn't warrant all of the hype considering the moderate while close to STL, never covered the majority of the population. Setup was always questionable with the morning convection and debris. I was surprised to see the number of school in our area that are releasing early or canceled classes all together. Can't say I recall schools canceling for the risk of Severe Thunderstorms. I don't have kids but I would think schools would rather have kids in a well built school building with trained staff monitoring conditions than let loose at home. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 13, 2022 10:01:48 GMT -6
can't wait or the idiots on fb bashing the mets. Lame I can... Ive seen them bashing nws...in all cases bc they didnt comprehend the correct message delivered, imo. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 13, 2022 10:01:56 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 13, 2022 10:04:02 GMT -6
Probably time for a watch, eh NWS?
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 13, 2022 10:09:48 GMT -6
Looks like a meso low getting going just south of Rolla.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 13, 2022 10:09:56 GMT -6
Ive seen them bashing nws...in all cases bc they didnt comprehend the correct message delivered, imo. dude, half of the people on HERE don't comprehend the message, much less the public lol. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 13, 2022 10:16:40 GMT -6
Watch out... southeast of STL City.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 10:16:43 GMT -6
Tornado Watch going up momentarily
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 13, 2022 10:17:09 GMT -6
Tornado Watch going up momentarily |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 10:39:47 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 13, 2022 10:40:48 GMT -6
Shaved the moderate and the enhanced risk south.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 13, 2022 11:02:32 GMT -6
This is all looking a bit disorganized at the moment, let's keep it that way.
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