00z Hrrrrrrrr is messy looking around here tomorrow. Wouldn’t have to worry about much severe weather in the metro if it were correct.
After what we've seen the past several months, I'm rooting for this outcome myself.
Ya, if this system would just slow down some. And we could get storms to fire in the late afternoon/early evening time. We would probably be in the "prime" zone.
But since its coming in before max heating. Our chances aren't as great!
Not sure how to put a Twitter video in here but here is a link to Stu Ostro's page. Pretty wild. If someone could post this video here I am sure it would be a hit. Pretty wild.
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 13, 2022 3:48:06 GMT -6
Convection out west is still holding together. Nothing severe. It will either lesson the severe threat here if atmosphere can't recover before the front moves through or make things worse...
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 13, 2022 4:32:24 GMT -6
I don't know about the severity of these storms on the Mo side today...I mean obviously we may see something. And SPC has been focusing areas south and east for a couple of days. I was hoping the timing would of been later for us.
Female met keeps saying ‘later this afternoon’, over and over with a minimizing tone. Affect is sort of flat. Same tone tgroughout. If she was the only person speaking, I would have tuned out long before she spoke at the end about risk.
Off 109, S of Wildhorse and N of Manchester
"On cable TV they have a weather channel -- 24 hours of weather. We had something like that where I grew up. We called it a window." - Dan Spencer
Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 13, 2022 6:22:18 GMT -6
HRRR continues to speed things up, with storms arriving by lunchtime for most of us. This could mitigate the severe threat a little, but don't let your guard down just yet...lots of shear in play.
Last Edit: Apr 13, 2022 6:22:28 GMT -6 by STGOutdoors
HRRR continues to speed things up, with storms arriving by lunchtime for most of us. This could mitigate the severe threat a little, but don't let your guard down just yet...lots of shear in play.
HRRR certainly painting a different picture this morning than it did yesterday. However completely agree that it has to be taken with caution as the severe threat certainly isn't off the table.
HRRR continues to speed things up, with storms arriving by lunchtime for most of us. This could mitigate the severe threat a little, but don't let your guard down just yet...lots of shear in play.
With all the other dynamics in play, sunshine may not matter.
WEAX Mascoutah IL,
'Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather.' John Ruskin
Mesoscale Discussion 0472 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Areas affected...central and eastern MO...western IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131238Z - 131445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible through the mid morning. Storm coverage and the limited magnitude of the risk will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance in the short term (through 10am).
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of thunderstorms over central MO in the vicinity of a cold front pushing east-southeast across the lower MO Valley this morning. Surface temperatures ahead of this thunderstorm activity are in the mid to upper 60s with lower 60s dewpoints, yielding a marginally unstable airmass.
There is some uncertainty regarding destabilization this morning over the mid MS Valley due in part to an extensive cloud shield and deleterious effects emanating from the puddle of convectively processed air over the lower MS Valley at least potentially affecting this region. Nonetheless, as an intense mid-level shortwave trough over the TX Panhandle approaches this region later today, an uptick in both storm coverage and intensity is expected. However, in the meantime, the overall limited buoyancy in place across the mid MS Valley through mid morning will likely limit both the magnitude and coverage to a potential severe threat. Marginally severe hail and wind damage would be the hazards with this activity.
..Smith/Guyer.. 04/13/2022
Last Edit: Apr 13, 2022 6:48:50 GMT -6 by WEAXWATCHER
WEAX Mascoutah IL,
'Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather.' John Ruskin
There is some uncertainty regarding destabilization this morning over the mid MS Valley due in part to an extensive cloud shield and deleterious effects emanating from the puddle of convectively processed air over the lower MS Valley at least potentially affecting this region.
9 times out of 10...
This bro lives a stones throw NNW of Brighton, IL.
"The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it." ~Patrick Young
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 13, 2022 6:57:26 GMT -6
Waiting for snow The first of the year I just can't believe That it almost is here Like cousins and Christmas And places to go Nothing takes longer Than waiting for snow - John McCutcheon
Not sure how to put a Twitter video in here but here is a link to Stu Ostro's page. Pretty wild. If someone could post this video here I am sure it would be a hit. Pretty wild.
Waiting for snow The first of the year I just can't believe That it almost is here Like cousins and Christmas And places to go Nothing takes longer Than waiting for snow - John McCutcheon
Waiting for snow The first of the year I just can't believe That it almost is here Like cousins and Christmas And places to go Nothing takes longer Than waiting for snow - John McCutcheon
Hrrr says line moves in between noon and 1. Ya’ll buy that? I’ve got family members trying to get into position and the thought was to travel home for lunch and stay.
Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 13, 2022 7:14:12 GMT -6
From the latest outlook:
For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours.
Short-range models show the main show developing around the lunch hour with a pre-frontal confluence working across the Metro. They are focusing a bubble of 2000j/kg+ SBCAPE associated with a strengthening LLJ and low-level moistening...so there's definitely some juice to work with despite the cloud cover and less-than-ideal timing. HRRR depicts a QLCS rapidly developing across S/Central MO and working across the Metro with a strong wind and tornado threat.
This bro lives a stones throw NNW of Brighton, IL.
"The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it." ~Patrick Young
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