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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 16, 2022 16:14:20 GMT -6
In case you were wondering Albert Pujols now has a career ERA of 36.00. There goes his HOF chances |
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Post by MakeitRain on May 17, 2022 0:23:21 GMT -6
Hurricane Season what next week?
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Post by amstilost on May 17, 2022 5:22:18 GMT -6
What a gorgeous 53* it is this morning. Beautiful.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 17, 2022 7:14:29 GMT -6
What a gorgeous 53* it is this morning. Beautiful. Took the pup for a walk before 6 am and was cold. I got windows open again today. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 17, 2022 9:41:28 GMT -6
We could be about 5 days from our first landfalling tropical system in the eastern Gulf with another one (possibly stronger) 5 days later after that one. Could be busy in the tropics the next couple weeks close to home (US coast, especially the eastern Gulf)
Going with 22-25 Named Storms 11-13 Hurricanes 5-7 major Hurricanes
A very active season indeed.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 17, 2022 9:52:44 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 17, 2022 10:27:30 GMT -6
You'll love my Summer forecast than... Lots of heat especially June into July, then a pull back of the heat late July into August with a generally dry Summer outside of July. August more mixed in opinion but trending dry, and June quite Dry. July may see us on the MCS train or at least close enough to get some occasional action from it.
My May was a disaster though in terms of busting with cooler and drier expected, but ending up with much warmer and overall wetter (in places), kinda of going with the trend there, but with a dry trend as there some consensus of the Heat Dome shifting back overhead for several weeks before backing off west again, and the Bermuda High nosing in towards the end of Summer.
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Post by bdgwx on May 17, 2022 10:47:54 GMT -6
The GFS has been consistent with tropical development, but it doesn't have a lot of support from the other models right now. There is a weak low off the coast of South America, but most modeling show it driving too deep into Latin America and possibly crossing over into the Pacific for any kind of real development in the Atlantic basin. The highest odds are for a null event right now. I am surprised that the NHC isn't even giving it a 10% chance on their 5 day outlook.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 17, 2022 11:20:58 GMT -6
Hard to say if that potential TC is a legit threat or not at this range...but the MJO does look somewhat favorable for development in the basin with it coming into phase 3 around the timeframe the GFS has it nearing the Gulf. This current wave predicted the stretch of heat we saw last week very well.
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Post by mosue56 on May 17, 2022 11:37:04 GMT -6
So after the cooler week next week into Memorial Day, summer arrives?
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Post by jmg378s on May 17, 2022 11:42:37 GMT -6
Something to keep an eye on tomorrow is where outflow boundaries end up with the MCS that is expected to move through the area tomorrow morning. There is likely to be enough instability and shear for severe storms in place tomorrow, but without a large scale lifting mechanism from a trough or shortwave we'd need something else to provide that lift. Outflow boundaries could serve such a purpose but it's iffy. Marginal risk for tonight and tomorrow looks appropriate at this point.
Skipping to Friday as this is next period that SPC has highlighted for our area. It appears there will likely be a very strong cap in place and this is why I don't think clouds and junk convection is going to be in play during this period. In fact this capping may actually end up being a mitigating factor. NAM is showing massive 150j/kg CIN cap and GFS is correspondingly stingy with convection along the front until the sun goes down when storms are more likely to be elevated. It's possible the cap is overblown in models and there will probably be some severe weather, but possible cap issues and the concern about shear instability not overlapping lead me to believe there is still some uncertainty to iron out.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 17, 2022 12:40:04 GMT -6
Yeah, models develop a pretty stout pool of instability tomorrow behind the departing complex(es)...might be interesting if the LLJ can focus enough lift over a remnant boundary left behind. Tonight's threat looks pretty meager this far SE and probably limited to a marginally strong/severe wind gust threat.
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Post by cozpregon on May 17, 2022 12:51:43 GMT -6
The GFS has been consistent with tropical development, but it doesn't have a lot of support from the other models right now. There is a weak low off the coast of South America, but most modeling show it driving too deep into Latin America and possibly crossing over into the Pacific for any kind of real development in the Atlantic basin. The highest odds are for a null event right now. I am surprised that the NHC isn't even giving it a 10% chance on their 5 day outlook. BWG does... so it's got that going for it. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 17, 2022 13:01:33 GMT -6
I’ve been keeping my eye on tomorrow as well. Looks iffy if anything gets going but if it does parameters look good for supercells. Effective sig tors are pretty high even through there is very little directional shear.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 17, 2022 15:04:49 GMT -6
Be interesting to see if the lead complex in SW IA can make it into the Metro later this evening...THKN contours and corfidi vectors definitely support a SE slide with time. The HRRR has trended towards convection developing on it's southern flank along I-70. Could be some impressive rainfall totals if the two complexes overlap.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 17, 2022 15:31:44 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on May 17, 2022 15:37:36 GMT -6
Discussion said CU looked increasingly 99'd |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on May 17, 2022 15:42:27 GMT -6
Discussion said CU looked increasingly 99'd haha |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 17, 2022 15:56:14 GMT -6
I'm not agitated today.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 17, 2022 17:51:28 GMT -6
Helluva mesolow/MCV with that lead complex...thing is spinning like a top! Kind of seems like that is keeping it on a further E trajectory but it looks like the HRRR was onto something with the development to it's south. Plenty of convection getting going upstream...looks like a busy night across the region.
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on May 17, 2022 21:48:17 GMT -6
Some intense cloud to ground strikes with the cell in Troy Mo
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 17, 2022 23:30:28 GMT -6
Some intense cloud to ground strikes with the cell in Troy Mo Ya I actually went live on Facebook for it! Nothing super spectacular! It was my first time doing it. But I did manage to catch a few good strikes! |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 18, 2022 4:04:38 GMT -6
Good amount of rain and lightning coming from the west. Gonna be a noisy morning.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 18, 2022 4:56:08 GMT -6
Finally! I'm home for some thunderstorms! Had to trick the dog so she would potty faster, but made it back in before the rain hit. Now I'm sitting in my "office" at home watching it.
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Post by dschreib on May 18, 2022 6:57:40 GMT -6
Just an observation, as I'm not usually one to lob grenades at the NWS. I was watching radar while driving to work, since the wife and kiddo were still at home. Velocities indicated quite a bow going through southern St. Clair and Randolph counties earlier. I'm surprised that didn't get a warning earlier than it did.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 18, 2022 8:29:22 GMT -6
Some pretty intense C2G lightning this morning with the leading edge of that complex. Didn't get a whole lot of rainfall though...around a 1/4" or so...was expecting more between those two complexes.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 18, 2022 8:51:54 GMT -6
Looks like the remnant outflow has settled down around KY/TN and the bootheel region so that's not favorable for development later today. Tomorrow may have some potential though...models show a decent shortwave rippling through during the afternoon with strong instability developing. Wind shear looks marginally supportive for supercells if storms fire.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 18, 2022 9:36:36 GMT -6
Looks like the remnant outflow has settled down around KY/TN and the bootheel region so that's not favorable for development later today. Tomorrow may have some potential though...models show a decent shortwave rippling through during the afternoon with strong instability developing. Wind shear looks marginally supportive for supercells if storms fire. Just looking at the NAM for tomorrow afternoon….whoa   |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 18, 2022 10:01:22 GMT -6
That hodo looks much more impressive than I expected eyeballing mass field charts...but the NAM does tend to overcook the windfield at times. Looks like it's focusing enhanced shear south of the vort max which is certainly possible.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 18, 2022 10:19:41 GMT -6
Looks like some of the CAMs have strong helicity swaths around here tomorrow afternoon. Threat looks conditional based on the MCV timing/strength but something to keep an eye on.  |
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