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Post by jmg378s on May 18, 2022 11:21:08 GMT -6
We barely see ordinary severe scenarios play out around here anymore let alone a remnant MCV generated scenario.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on May 18, 2022 11:58:30 GMT -6
Just an observation, as I'm not usually one to lob grenades at the NWS. I was watching radar while driving to work, since the wife and kiddo were still at home. Velocities indicated quite a bow going through southern St. Clair and Randolph counties earlier. I'm surprised that didn't get a warning earlier than it did. We had a sectional outdoor couch blown about 15 feet out at the lake at the rec area this morning…… Pretty sure winds were around warning criteria |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 18, 2022 14:28:24 GMT -6
18Z NAM intent on seeing some Monster Hailers tomorrow with a few to several large supercells showing up on the simulated satellite/radar maps. Tomorrow looks to be a 'sneaky' big day potential.
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Post by mosue56 on May 18, 2022 14:49:53 GMT -6
I wish fronts would just go through and keep going and not stall and come back as warm fronts. Can’t we warm up without them?
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Post by cozpregon on May 18, 2022 20:15:22 GMT -6
Heads up tomorrow afternoon is looking warranted
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 18, 2022 20:51:22 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on May 18, 2022 20:56:13 GMT -6
Would think the slight risk will be pulled a bit further north
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 19, 2022 6:44:39 GMT -6
Latest outlook expanded the slight risk some to include everyone along and south of 70. 5% tor, 15% wind and hail  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 19, 2022 7:34:00 GMT -6
We barely see ordinary severe scenarios play out around here anymore let alone a remnant MCV generated scenario. Today's looks to be at least partially a MCV generated scenario with frontal enhancement. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 19, 2022 7:34:57 GMT -6
Im not sure how today is going to play out... but MCV driven events are really really hard to pin down.
The lead convection in the warm air advection wing of the circulation continues to be quite robust...and it is moving right along. While the core of the circulation is further west.
I see two possible options here...
Lead convection re-intensifies as it encounters daytime heating. This overturns the airmass and leaves limited opportunity to recharge behind for storms near the core.
Option 2, lead convection weakens as indicated by most of the CAMs leaving behind a growing and mostly undisturbed resevoir of instability for the core to act on early this afternoon.
If the later occurs, very large hail and a significant wind threat will develop... and there could be a few HP supercells with an attendant tornado risk.
If the first option plays out... then most of the risk will be shifted into southeastern IL with the leading wave as it races east.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 19, 2022 7:53:19 GMT -6
The storms on the leading edge of the MCV are stronger at this time than most models had them. My money is on them weakening a bit, and muddying the atmosphere for this afternoon/evening, reducing overall severe risk. It sure is moving slow though, which may allow them to really pop early afternoon. Tough call like Chris said.
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 19, 2022 8:04:58 GMT -6
More storm warnings are popping along the line. All the way from Osage Beach to Mountain Grove now.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 19, 2022 8:05:11 GMT -6
Do we have an idea on the time? I have a dr appt at 1415 to get my ankle looked at, I really don't want to be out in severe storms. Just at home so I can watch.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 19, 2022 8:21:53 GMT -6
Do we have an idea on the time? I have a dr appt at 1415 to get my ankle looked at, I really don't want to be out in severe storms. Just at home so I can watch. 1:30 to 2PM if the line as it is survives, if not then more like 3:30 to 4:30PM maybe a bit later. Just depends how the current line evolves and whether or not it can survive into the afternoon, or dissipate soon and allow enough heating for new storms ahead or near the MCV. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 19, 2022 8:52:20 GMT -6
I get the feeling that cluster is going to make it into the Metro and become the dominate severe threat for today. It seems to be intensifying if anything...usually when these complexes survive past 10 or 11am they will keep trucking along. There's plenty of destabilization occurring ahead of it to fuel organized convection.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 19, 2022 8:58:47 GMT -6
I get the feeling that cluster is going to make it into the Metro and become the dominate severe threat for today. It seems to be intensifying if anything...usually when these complexes survive past 10 or 11am they will keep trucking along. There's plenty of destabilization occurring ahead of it to fuel organized convection. Some of the 12Z Models agree with this, but still manage to get some stuff going under the MCV as well as the afternoon progresses. It could be a potential double hitter. Seems even more plausible as the lead wave is gaining speed as well from the MCV allowing more distance between them and consequently more destabilization between the areas of storms. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 19, 2022 9:02:11 GMT -6
Faster arrival of the 1st wave now pushes it to 12:30 to 1:30 metro passage of the 1st band.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 19, 2022 9:05:20 GMT -6
That chunk down by Rolla looks robust
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 19, 2022 9:05:27 GMT -6
Just got back from a doctor appointment. Air is humid and has a feeling of instability.
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on May 19, 2022 9:23:02 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 19, 2022 9:29:52 GMT -6
And of course the forum server has to become wonky and throw off Bad gateway errors or long loading times...
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 19, 2022 9:35:10 GMT -6
Sure looks to me like this lead wave will soak up some energy. Not sure how much will be left and whether there will be sufficient time to destabilize again.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 19, 2022 9:41:49 GMT -6
Sure looks to me like this lead wave will soak up some energy. Not sure how much will be left and whether there will be sufficient time to destabilize again. lightning is/has been increasing around the MCV back in the MO/KS border so don't think so as this is a warm front/air mass coming north which will keep storms energized. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 19, 2022 10:08:19 GMT -6
Showers and storms now popping ahead of the main line into St. Clair County, IL
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Post by Snowman99 on May 19, 2022 10:08:43 GMT -6
Heavy rain lightning and thunder. Maybe a brief 50 or 55 guat. No hail. Meh
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Post by jeepers on May 19, 2022 10:30:39 GMT -6
Wind, moderate rain, BB and pea sized hail
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 19, 2022 10:38:21 GMT -6
Heavy rain, wind.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 19, 2022 10:48:03 GMT -6
Looks like this batch will stay south of me. As expected.
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Post by amstilost on May 19, 2022 10:50:47 GMT -6
I looked this morning at the forecast before heading out to the garden and it said I wasn't going to get any rain till 5:00 p.m. or after and then tonight. Got caught out in the garden as I could hear thunder and it started sprinkling I guess this was about 45 minutes to an hour ago. Walked into the house to a thunderstorm warning just west of me in Franklin County turned it off, 5 minutes later alarm went off again for Northern Jeffco. I believe this had to do with the earlier conversation about trying to pin down timing.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 19, 2022 11:02:06 GMT -6
My poor sister is heading to Manitou Springs today. LOL!
Friday A slight chance of showers before noon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 3pm, then showers likely after 3pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 51. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 10 to 20 mph becoming southeast in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night Rain showers before 7pm, then rain and snow showers between 7pm and 9pm, then snow showers after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 29. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Saturday Snow showers before 4pm, then rain and snow showers likely. High near 37. North northeast wind around 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Saturday Night A chance of rain and snow showers before 9pm, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. East wind around 10 mph becoming southwest in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Sunday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.
I told her to be weather aware and watch out for flash flooding. The NWS Denver said to be aware for major power outages with downed trees. I don't remember getting a snow storm there this late.
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