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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on May 19, 2022 11:02:35 GMT -6
Any ground truths from wright city?
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 19, 2022 11:03:30 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on May 19, 2022 11:12:46 GMT -6
Oops
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Post by Frivolousz21 on May 19, 2022 11:15:37 GMT -6
Very windy in Edwardsville
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Post by Frivolousz21 on May 19, 2022 11:17:02 GMT -6
50mph gusts easy
Two large tree branches just snapped right outside the Holliday inn
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Post by Frivolousz21 on May 19, 2022 11:18:53 GMT -6
Make that 3.
The wind is roaring.
Now hail
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 19, 2022 11:18:54 GMT -6
It is dark outside, holy cow
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 19, 2022 11:35:52 GMT -6
Watch incoming
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 19, 2022 11:39:21 GMT -6
Noting as shown this is for the upcoming MCV not what has just rolled through. Looks like some moderate rain through 1 to 1:30PM then we break for some sun via satellite imagery over the eastern Ozarks along with the warm front retreating northward later this afternoon should prime us for the second round getting together now over Springfield, MO. |
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Post by cozpregon on May 19, 2022 11:46:17 GMT -6
Really getting going down SGF way  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 19, 2022 11:47:31 GMT -6
Perhaps I stand corrected.
You can already see those couple of cells east of Springfield, MO have a little "bend" to them.
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Post by weatherman222 on May 19, 2022 11:50:44 GMT -6
Neat setup today. And there is the watch!
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Post by jeepers on May 19, 2022 11:56:16 GMT -6
.69 in with first round.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 19, 2022 11:57:30 GMT -6
Nothing for the IL communities?
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Post by fojginmo on May 19, 2022 11:57:44 GMT -6
Thought this looked cool. Finally had a decent bit of weather that I could enjoy watching from my new place.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 19, 2022 12:17:13 GMT -6
The big Springfield cell might be fixing to spin. Hard to tell with it right over the radar at the moment.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 19, 2022 12:26:49 GMT -6
The big Springfield cell might be fixing to spin. Hard to tell with it right over the radar at the moment. There's several embedded supercells that are trying to tighten up. Wound up MCVs like this one can really raise the tornadogenesis potential with enhanced vorticity and shear. You guys down that way need to be watching that closely. For the metro and points north it seems like more of a conditional threat after that lead complex turned the atmo over. But there's some impressive moisture advection and clearing ahead of the circulation so we could see some destabilization before that arrives later this afternoon. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 19, 2022 12:30:58 GMT -6
The big Springfield cell might be fixing to spin. Hard to tell with it right over the radar at the moment. There's several embedded supercells that are trying to tighten up. Wound up MCVs like this one can really raise the tornadogenesis potential with enhanced vorticity and shear. You guys down that way need to be watching that closely. For the metro and points north it seems like more of a conditional threat after that lead complex turned the atmo over. But there's some impressive moisture advection and clearing ahead of the circulation so we could see some destabilization before that arrives later this afternoon. Indeed, I'm in alert mode now for sure. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 19, 2022 12:37:15 GMT -6
Starting to get that "inland hurricane" look to it...the fanned out anti-cyclonic cirrostratus blowoff is a sign of strong upper divergence over this and there's obviously good low-level convergence and deep convection underneath.
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Post by weatherman222 on May 19, 2022 12:37:48 GMT -6
The big Springfield cell might be fixing to spin. Hard to tell with it right over the radar at the moment. There's several embedded supercells that are trying to tighten up. Wound up MCVs like this one can really raise the tornadogenesis potential with enhanced vorticity and shear. You guys down that way need to be watching that closely. For the metro and points north it seems like more of a conditional threat after that lead complex turned the atmo over. But there's some impressive moisture advection and clearing ahead of the circulation so we could see some destabilization before that arrives later this afternoon. Not sure if this is totally a valid comparison to the May 8th, 2009 "super" derecho but it's still an MCV that's following a similar path. |
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Post by Kathy Walker - Fredericktown on May 19, 2022 12:41:31 GMT -6
There's several embedded supercells that are trying to tighten up. Wound up MCVs like this one can really raise the tornadogenesis potential with enhanced vorticity and shear. You guys down that way need to be watching that closely. For the metro and points north it seems like more of a conditional threat after that lead complex turned the atmo over. But there's some impressive moisture advection and clearing ahead of the circulation so we could see some destabilization before that arrives later this afternoon. Not sure if this is totally a valid comparison to the May 8th, 2009 "super" derecho but it's still an MCV that's following a similar path. Oh please don't say that. That was one of the worst day's in my life. Ex-husband and I were caught in it on Hwy 72 and F with trees and power lines down on the road and my vehicle got beat to crap complete with windows cracked by the hail with us sitting inside and praying we didn't get blown over. A nice, simple thunderstorm is fine with me. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 19, 2022 12:44:47 GMT -6
Not sure if this is totally a valid comparison to the May 8th, 2009 "super" derecho but it's still an MCV that's following a similar path. Oh please don't say that. That was one of the worst day's in my life. Ex-husband and I were caught in it on Hwy 72 and F with trees and power lines down on the road and my vehicle got beat to crap complete with windows cracked by the hail with us sitting inside and praying we didn't get blown over. A nice, simple thunderstorm is fine with me. Yep, that was a bad deal for this entire area. Still probably the craziest storm I've ever been through directly (barely missed the 2017 EF4 as you all know). I'll never forget the baseball hail and how black it was as that storm approached. Let's not do that again. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 19, 2022 12:58:18 GMT -6
REED is chasing SE MO
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 19, 2022 13:00:11 GMT -6
That was an extreme example...hopefully not a repeat in progress. Radar/sat shows an outflow left behind from the lead complex that swept across the S counties so hopefully that knocks down the instability a bit.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 19, 2022 13:01:43 GMT -6
I kinda figured. Saw his post this morning about favoring the MCV mode and heading to W KY. SE MO is definitely looking to be the favored region for this. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 19, 2022 13:01:51 GMT -6
A weather technical question. When that severe cell passed to my souther about 1215 this afternoon I was getting the distant rumble of thunder. But it wasn't the typical thunder that lasts maybe 5 or 10 seconds. I had one rumble that I thinking kept going for 30 seconds or more (I didn't time it). Then there was another a couple of minutes later that rumbled for more than 20 seconds (I did time this one). They weren't more that one that seemed to be a single boom. These were actual individual rumbles of thunder. And I wasn't downtown or something where it was echoing off the buildings.
What caused such an unusual duration of a single thunderclap?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 19, 2022 13:13:04 GMT -6
A weather technical question. When that severe cell passed to my souther about 1215 this afternoon I was getting the distant rumble of thunder. But it wasn't the typical thunder that lasts maybe 5 or 10 seconds. I had one rumble that I thinking kept going for 30 seconds or more (I didn't time it). Then there was another a couple of minutes later that rumbled for more than 20 seconds (I did time this one). They weren't more that one that seemed to be a single boom. These were actual individual rumbles of thunder. And I wasn't downtown or something where it was echoing off the buildings. What caused such an unusual duration of a single thunderclap? There was likely a low-level inversion in place that traps the pressure/sound wave and allows the wavelength to become longer as it disperses away from the strike. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 19, 2022 13:58:25 GMT -6
Looks like the outflow that came through earlier has turned into an effective warm front/differential heating zone from near Rolla to Redbud and is slowly lifting northward. Any right turning supercells that develop out ahead of the MCV in the warm sector along/near that warm front is going to pose a tornado threat...a strong tornado or two seems possible given the moderate 0-3km SRH/EHI with backed surface wind and strong surface CAPE developing. And a quick hitting tornado is also possible within the QLCS. This threat should build into at least the southern metro and S IL with moisture advection.
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Post by weatherman222 on May 19, 2022 14:03:24 GMT -6
Chris is in Bloomsdale and Reed is heading towards Salem. The environment is ripe out ahead of this MCV/bow. MU CAPE pushing 4,000 j/kg over far Eastern Southeast MO. Shear ahead of it looks healthy too.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on May 19, 2022 14:11:54 GMT -6
Tornado warning for Phelps county
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