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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2022 7:05:01 GMT -6
Tomorrow seems like a good setup for hailers underneath the mid-level cold core...with 700mb temps around 0* it won't take much of an updraft to get hail production. It's questionable that these would approach severe threshold...but worth watching. Wow that's only 10-11K feet above the ground. That's ripe for golf ball+ hailers It would be, but the potential is limited by marginal lapse rates and instability. Short-term models show drier air working in later today which would limit CAPE. So it's more of a sub-severe threat from what I'm seeing. |
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Post by dschreib on May 26, 2022 8:05:39 GMT -6
A monster in the gulf coming sooner than you think! this one will be remembered as the climate lockdown hurricane. Not that I want there to be that many, but I can't help think Hurricane Walter is going to be a crabby, stingy storm. Damn kids. |
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Post by jmg378s on May 26, 2022 9:28:11 GMT -6
There are several counties in the north part of our area that have not seen either a Severe or Tornado Watch yet this year. Even the watches for St. Charles and St. Louis counties from the event several days ago were issued by the local office rather than the SPC at the last minute. In an area of the country that is used to seeing several severe weather days each year in the Spring it's been pretty spotty for most and almost non-existent north of I-70.
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Post by REB on May 26, 2022 10:17:18 GMT -6
I am happy to see the sunshine but absolutely dreading the upper 80’s and 90’s.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2022 10:28:34 GMT -6
There are several counties in the north part of our area that have not seen either a Severe or Tornado Watch yet this year. Even the watches for St. Charles and St. Louis counties from the event several days ago were issued by the local office rather than the SPC at the last minute. In an area of the country that is used to seeing several severe weather days each year in the Spring it's been pretty spotty for most and almost non-existent north of I-70. It does seem like central IL has been a dead zone for severe weather this season...everything has been well to the north or south. Pretty remarkable that we're almost into June and the biggest severe event in recent memory was last December. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2022 10:38:21 GMT -6
I am happy to see the sunshine but absolutely dreading the upper 80’s and 90’s. Luckily, it looks like a pretty cool pattern will emerge later next week...so the heat and humidity will be fairly short lived. I get the feeling that's how much of the summer is going to go...with bursts of heat followed by storms and a cool down that has staying power. The MCS train should be getting ramped up next week. |
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Post by cozpregon on May 26, 2022 11:16:40 GMT -6
I am happy to see the sunshine but absolutely dreading the upper 80’s and 90’s. Luckily, it looks like a pretty cool pattern will emerge later next week...so the heat and humidity will be fairly short lived. I get the feeling that's how much of the summer is going to go...with bursts of heat followed by storms and a cool down that has staying power. The MCS train should be getting ramped up next week. I was thinking that too. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2022 15:04:54 GMT -6
Sure would be nice if mother nature was throwing us hints of the upcoming winter with this wound up mid-level low spinning in the wheelhouse. This thing would be a beauty in the middle of winter...probably still rain though, lol
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Post by dschreib on May 27, 2022 7:23:28 GMT -6
Sure would be nice if mother nature was throwing us hints of the upcoming winter with this wound up mid-level low spinning in the wheelhouse. This thing would be a beauty in the middle of winter...probably still rain though, lol Maybe some snow, followed by a couple days of freezing drizzle. Fun times. |
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Post by REB on May 27, 2022 8:55:48 GMT -6
Today just feels weird
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 27, 2022 10:31:14 GMT -6
It feels like fall. I'm getting chilly walking the dog. The misty spitting doesn't help. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 27, 2022 13:10:53 GMT -6
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Post by dschreib on May 27, 2022 13:53:08 GMT -6
That's like a couple days ago, with the northward moving storms. My mind just doesn't grasp the idea of anything severe moving north...or in the Jarrell case, southwest. |
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Post by amstilost on May 27, 2022 14:22:43 GMT -6
1997 was also a strong (Super) El Nino year. I have always wondered at what point will technology be able to pinpoint through reanalysis the main teleconnections to these extreme severe events.
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Post by REB on May 28, 2022 9:10:50 GMT -6
Have a great weekend everyone..
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on May 28, 2022 14:48:09 GMT -6
As i dont like the radars on the nws site, what kind of radar apps are out there and what features do they provide. I can spend some money to download an app(eg radarscope is 10, omega is 9, both pretty reasonable, imo)
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 28, 2022 15:04:09 GMT -6
As i dont like the radars on the nws site, what kind of radar apps are out there and what features do they provide. I can spend some money to download an app(eg radarscope is 10, omega is 9, both pretty reasonable, imo) I use Omega, I have radar scope too. Omega has some pretty cool features and a closer zoom. Radar scope you have to scroll through states to find a radar, omega you just have to press the radar you want on the map. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 28, 2022 15:10:25 GMT -6
I have both, but gravitate to radarscope. Partly because I've had it the longest, but also because it is clean and easy to use.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 28, 2022 15:20:59 GMT -6
Yep I have both as well. They each have their pros and cons but I usually use scope for its reliability. Omega has some issues with velocity dealiasing I hope they fix soon.
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Post by REB on May 28, 2022 16:45:33 GMT -6
I use radarscope.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 28, 2022 17:14:39 GMT -6
Another vote for radarscope.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 28, 2022 18:26:24 GMT -6
Radarscope for me.
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 28, 2022 21:05:46 GMT -6
RadarScope
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Post by bdgwx on May 29, 2022 15:56:15 GMT -6
There is a large spread in modeling regarding the severe potential for Tuesday. The SPC has gone with an enhanced risk to the west around KC. The ECMWF is more on the meh side of things while the UKMET is more robust and extends the risk further east closer to STL. The GFS is somewhere in the middle in terms of magnitude and a little further east than what the SPC outlook suggests. It is something to keep an eye on anyway.
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Post by Jeffmw on May 29, 2022 18:04:20 GMT -6
I know it’s not going to rain but with the clouds and wind looks like it could come down hard any min.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 30, 2022 7:17:06 GMT -6
I salute those w2ho died so that I can live free.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 30, 2022 8:59:02 GMT -6
There is a large spread in modeling regarding the severe potential for Tuesday. The SPC has gone with an enhanced risk to the west around KC. The ECMWF is more on the meh side of things while the UKMET is more robust and extends the risk further east closer to STL. The GFS is somewhere in the middle in terms of magnitude and a little further east than what the SPC outlook suggests. It is something to keep an eye on anyway. Gonna be interesting to see if remnant outflow becomes the dominant boundary and if so how, far east that gets. Shear/CAPE values are pretty supportive for severe storms with ~30kts 0-6km shear and 1500-2000j/kg CAPE. But there's not much forcing aloft other than weak diffluence so it's going to take good surface convergence for storm development. Instability looks pretty meager Wednesday with a lot of clouds and precip around so tomorrow afternoon/evening is probably the main window for severe weather. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 30, 2022 9:00:30 GMT -6
I salute those w2ho died so that I can live free. That's what it's all about! |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 30, 2022 11:48:29 GMT -6
Slight risk expanded south to cover north 60 percent or so of area..just south of 44 on north
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 30, 2022 11:53:00 GMT -6
Slight risk expanded south to cover north 60 percent or so of area..just south of 44 on north Model trends definitely support a threat down to 44/55 at least. |
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