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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 30, 2022 13:38:16 GMT -6
PDS tornado watch across Minnesota
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 30, 2022 15:04:51 GMT -6
Is Agatha going to make it across Mexico and into the GOM?
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Post by REB on May 30, 2022 15:26:51 GMT -6
My goodness it’s breezy.
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Post by REB on May 30, 2022 17:46:06 GMT -6
Is Agatha going to make it across Mexico and into the GOM? The maps I saw suggested it. |
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Post by cozpregon on May 30, 2022 20:18:43 GMT -6
Jet looks like it will continue to be low latitude for the next couple weeks... nice MCS set up  |
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Post by cozpregon on May 30, 2022 21:14:32 GMT -6
Did see a shooting star in the high South sky when I went out to see the space station
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 30, 2022 22:12:15 GMT -6
Just saw another one. Traced it back to tonight's shower's radiant. It's gonna be more than 0!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 30, 2022 22:13:08 GMT -6
Jet looks like it will continue to be low latitude for the next couple weeks... nice MCS set up Look's like mine and Glenn's hot June is in Jeopardy! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 30, 2022 22:15:24 GMT -6
First half of June is looking moist for sure. Some good rains for the drought stricken plains as well hopefully.  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 30, 2022 22:17:44 GMT -6
Of course stupid mid level clouds have to now come in and ruin the show. From satellite they look micro-scale (not affecting large areas at any given time), but going to be annoying from time to time it would seem. More cloud issues across the northwestern third of the area however.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 30, 2022 22:48:18 GMT -6
Saw one maybe 2 more faint meteors, but so far not a lot of excitement. Still about 15 mins from the estimated peak though.
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Post by ComoEsJn on May 31, 2022 8:16:16 GMT -6
how is the timing looking for rain/storms today in the immediate metro?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 31, 2022 8:29:54 GMT -6
Models are showing the boundary stalling out across N/Central MO today which is probably going to limit storm potential until after dark for the Metro.
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Post by REB on May 31, 2022 10:20:36 GMT -6
BRTN,
How’s the knee?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 31, 2022 12:35:26 GMT -6
It's still kind of weak and tender but I've got almost the entire range of motion back. I was able to swim yesterday without a brace which seemed to help it a bit. I walked laps around the pool and doggy paddled my heart out, lol |
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Post by REB on May 31, 2022 12:45:05 GMT -6
It's still kind of weak and tender but I've got almost the entire range of motion back. I was able to swim yesterday without a brace which seemed to help it a bit. I walked laps around the pool and doggy paddled my heart out, lol So glad you are improving! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 31, 2022 17:42:56 GMT -6
The boundary out to the west really put the breaks on today...the latest HRRR doesn't get storms into the Metro until almost sunrise tomorrow. That's probably going to pretty well nix the severe threat except for an isolated strong wind gust. Theoretically this could raise the severe threat tomorrow across the SE 1/2 to 1/3rd of the CWA...but we'll have to see how far the boundary gets before the next wave comes out along it and how much instability can develop ahead of it. I'd say it's a pretty low-end risk overall.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 31, 2022 22:19:00 GMT -6
Looks like an MCV is getting wound up east of Wichita...that may be a player for us tomorrow AM. Lots of training storms along this boundary...that MCV may focus enhanced heavy rainfall along it's path.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 1, 2022 9:18:20 GMT -6
No severe weather today with the effective cold front pushed way to the south. Next severe threat looks like Sunday when the MCS train gets rolling.
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 1, 2022 11:49:36 GMT -6
No severe weather today with the effective cold front pushed way to the south. Next severe threat looks like Sunday when the MCS train gets rolling. Yeah next week looks active. Stronger mid-level jet residing through the middle of the country should help kick off and sustain MCSs on just about any of those days. Warm moist boundary layer, continuous infusions of EML, and adequate shear probably means some of those would be strong to severe. Would not be surprised if our area somehow dodges organized severe weather again, but I wouldn't bet on it. |
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Post by amstilost on Jun 1, 2022 13:50:57 GMT -6
Well another high chance for rain IMBY has fizzled so far. A major example of 'The Arch Effect' or just bad luck. Might need to water if nothing comes of this.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 1, 2022 19:52:56 GMT -6
Next week will be a pain to forecast with the MCS tracking ramping up. Unless we get some more significant perturbations in the westerly flow... we will have to rely on MCVs, subtle disturbances and the stalled effective boundary. I have low confidence in the models handling of those features even at close range.... so blanketing Sunday through Thursday with a daily "Chance for Storms" There will for sure be a LOT of dry time... but the orientation of the mid-level flow implies any MCS train that develops will have a wind threat... and as the effective boundary retreats during the day may have a hail and tornado threats. Headaches ahead!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 2, 2022 0:11:16 GMT -6
Boy it's been another crappy severe weather season for us weather nerds here locally.
I mean of course that's a good thing. But for a severe weather enthusiast, it sucks.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 2, 2022 8:46:03 GMT -6
Boy it's been another crappy severe weather season for us weather nerds here locally. I mean of course that's a good thing. But for a severe weather enthusiast, it sucks. That might change real quick next week. It seems like our "core season" for severe storms has been getting later...June is prime time around here |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 2, 2022 12:59:16 GMT -6
Boy it's been another crappy severe weather season for us weather nerds here locally. I mean of course that's a good thing. But for a severe weather enthusiast, it sucks. That might change real quick next week. It seems like our "core season" for severe storms has been getting later...June is prime time around here I sure hope so... |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jun 3, 2022 11:44:08 GMT -6
I think this has been a very cool wet 1st 6months of the year...
Not no many hot or humid days... or storms
Lots of cloudy rainy days
I hope it remains the same this summer! NW flow 🤞
Planning a trip To Maine (late June) and another to Alaska (late August) to beat the summer heat
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 3, 2022 12:23:35 GMT -6
RadarScope 4.7 looks like it will include super resolution Storm Relative Velocity. I’ve been hoping for that for a long time.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 3, 2022 12:43:04 GMT -6
I think this has been a very cool wet 1st 6months of the year... Not no many hot or humid days... or storms Lots of cloudy rainy days I hope it remains the same this summer! NW flow 🤞 Planning a trip To Maine (late June) and another to Alaska (late August) to beat the summer heat So far this season reminds me a bit of 2013 but not quite as cool and rainy. It seems like the mean ridge wants to keep retrograding westward...hopefully we can stay locked in this pattern through much of the summer. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jun 3, 2022 14:38:52 GMT -6
I was betting on an active pattern in june as well as well as cooler than normal. I was looking out into mid june a day or two ago and was concerned abt the model depiction scorching hot temps progged around 100 for several days in a row. I hope the ridge does retrograde a bit but wow, we need the rains out there to break down that expansive drought. Cpc has stl area progged for cooler than normal for next week. Guessing we could flip to extreme heat mid june if the ridge builds overhead.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 4, 2022 10:28:52 GMT -6
RadarScope 4.7 looks like it will include super resolution Storm Relative Velocity. I’ve been hoping for that for a long time. Finally! I've always thought they could use the modeled wind profiles from HRRR as a first guess at the mean storm motion. Obviously deviant motions would cause some error, but it is better than nothing. They could also use the SCIT information that comes with the radar feed to do it on a cell by cell basis. There are a lot of possibilities. I wonder how they are going to do it? |
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