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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 4, 2022 10:48:25 GMT -6
Looks like most of the storm action is going to miss St. Louis north and or south. June looks hot and bone dry after this coming week as originally forecasted by Glenn and me.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 4, 2022 11:03:32 GMT -6
RadarScope 4.7 looks like it will include super resolution Storm Relative Velocity. I’ve been hoping for that for a long time. Finally! I've always thought they could use the modeled wind profiles from HRRR as a first guess at the mean storm motion. Obviously deviant motions would cause some error, but it is better than nothing. They could also use the SCIT information that comes with the radar feed to do it on a cell by cell basis. There are a lot of possibilities. I wonder how they are going to do it? I’m wondering as well. I was hoping you could manually set it from a warning like in GR2 but that doesn’t look like the case. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 4, 2022 18:38:33 GMT -6
Might get some showers this evening afterall as small shield of mainly light rain seems to be trying to hold it's own as it approaches the metro area.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 4, 2022 19:49:26 GMT -6
Monday holds interest as some models show an MCV rolling through the area during the afternoon hours around peak heating. Might be a conditional threat severe storms especially along and east of the Mississippi depending on exact timing.
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Post by amstilost on Jun 4, 2022 21:37:07 GMT -6
Well what do you know...the radar thinks it's the middle of winter with snow about to move in and drying it up just before it gets here. How quaint.  |
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Post by amstilost on Jun 4, 2022 21:58:18 GMT -6
I picked 9-1/2 lbs of strawberries this evening to add to the 60 lbs already harvested since early-mid May. They are much sweeter now than they were in early May though. Some info says that too much rain makes them pretty tart. It has been dryer the last week or so here, 7 miles west of De Soto. Any gardeners can chime in on that claim, if it's accurate or maybe something else. We first thought that the previous two years of strawberries depleted the ground of the necessary minerals. Sharing knowledge is a wonderful thing.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 5, 2022 7:30:04 GMT -6
I picked 9-1/2 lbs of strawberries this evening to add to the 60 lbs already harvested since early-mid May. They are much sweeter now than they were in early May though. Some info says that too much rain makes them pretty tart. It has been dryer the last week or so here, 7 miles west of De Soto. Any gardeners can chime in on that claim, if it's accurate or maybe something else. We first thought that the previous two years of strawberries depleted the ground of the necessary minerals. Sharing knowledge is a wonderful thing. I would agree with that. Wet years tend to produce large, but tart berries. Thinking blackberries may show the same trait. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 5, 2022 9:05:32 GMT -6
It's looking like the timing of these shortwaves/MCVs isn't going to be very favorable for severe weather for the region, as well as the eventual placement of the boundary and instability pool.
Looking towards mid-month, the GFS looks awfully aggressive building the ridge in next week. A warmer pattern looks to develop, but I'm not sold on the heat wave that it's showing. The EC and GEM ensembles look much flatter overall which goes along with the seasonal trend so far.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 5, 2022 11:04:47 GMT -6
600DM 500MB ridge centered right on top of St. Louis down to Memphis on June 15th per today's 12Z GFS with us on the left side of the ridge under the thermal ridge. Oh boy, here it comes!?!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 5, 2022 11:30:16 GMT -6
That'd be a great birthday present...NOT
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 5, 2022 11:35:08 GMT -6
The dynamical MJO forecast has the current wave in phase 8/1(our cool phase) waning and then potentially reemerging back in the same quadrant...that certainly doesn't support the heat wave depicted by the GFS.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 5, 2022 12:03:46 GMT -6
GEM/CMC is now 'sorta of' on board, but less extreme then the GFS, same date time period, around the 14-16th time period for heat wave.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 5, 2022 12:28:54 GMT -6
It does look “ridgy” around mid month but the GEFS has a pretty low amplitude ridge compared to the GFS  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 5, 2022 15:22:38 GMT -6
EPS has the ridge building a bit in the long range as well.
Our first tropical storm of the year in the Atlantic has formed...Alex.
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Post by amstilost on Jun 5, 2022 17:38:00 GMT -6
I picked 9-1/2 lbs of strawberries this evening to add to the 60 lbs already harvested since early-mid May. They are much sweeter now than they were in early May though. Some info says that too much rain makes them pretty tart. It has been dryer the last week or so here, 7 miles west of De Soto. Any gardeners can chime in on that claim, if it's accurate or maybe something else. We first thought that the previous two years of strawberries depleted the ground of the necessary minerals. Sharing knowledge is a wonderful thing.  I would agree with that. Wet years tend to produce large, but tart berries. Thinking blackberries may show the same trait. Good to know, last years blackberries were pretty tart on the early ones but fully ripened berries were awesome. Both rows are loaded with buds and flowers this year. I'm finally starting to see quite a few honeybees now. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jun 5, 2022 19:30:52 GMT -6
I would agree with that. Wet years tend to produce large, but tart berries. Thinking blackberries may show the same trait. Good to know, last years blackberries were pretty tart on the early ones but fully ripened berries were awesome. Both rows are loaded with buds and flowers this year. I'm finally starting to see quite a few honeybees now. This is my first year to produce fruit. Hopefully the berries are still getting bigger |
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Post by amstilost on Jun 5, 2022 20:15:51 GMT -6
Good to know, last years blackberries were pretty tart on the early ones but fully ripened berries were awesome. Both rows are loaded with buds and flowers this year. I'm finally starting to see quite a few honeybees now. This is my first year to produce fruit. Hopefully the berries are still getting bigger Last year was the first our blackberries produced for us. They had been planted at the old house in 2018 but they didn't do very well there. We brought them with us to this place in Spring 2019 and they started slow in newly tilled field grass plot with horse manure and shredded leaves tilled in, but they have taken off like gangbusters since 2020. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 5, 2022 20:53:11 GMT -6
Wednesday looks it may have a severe chance
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 6, 2022 6:57:44 GMT -6
Rain looks pretty light later this morning...
Heavier stuff looks south of STL.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 6, 2022 7:30:01 GMT -6
Pop ups over the metro east into Illinois and southeast Missouri. Blinding rain in West Belleville, almost out of nowhere. Glad I got the dogs out when I did, I had to rush them all back in after being out for 10 minutes.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 6, 2022 7:30:13 GMT -6
look at the storms fire in IL as the rain fizzles moving into the area. Lmao
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 6, 2022 7:38:20 GMT -6
And like that, it's done. Just a soft rumble of thunder as the cell moves out.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jun 6, 2022 7:54:35 GMT -6
Decent downpour, few rumbles of thunder.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 6, 2022 8:15:34 GMT -6
C'mon, rain...I don't to have to water today
Sometimes it's like pulling teeth around here!
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Post by REB on Jun 6, 2022 8:55:49 GMT -6
We got .37 inches in our little downpour. Stopped in time for me to leave the gym without getting an early shower.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 6, 2022 10:16:32 GMT -6
These MCVs sure seem to like to track across S MO...poof goes any meaningful rain chances for today around here.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 6, 2022 10:47:23 GMT -6
Now the models are pulling back on the heat quite a bit for mid month. No longer showing 100s+ Looks more like a 1-3 day surge of low-mid 90s then back to upper 70s to mid 80s along with a return of the northwest flow, which would go along with the seasonal pattern.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 6, 2022 11:09:30 GMT -6
SPC D1-3 outlooks split STL N,S,E and W...lol
Lock it in
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 6, 2022 11:15:45 GMT -6
SPC D1-3 outlooks split STL N,S,E and W...lol Lock it in This has been one slow severe season around here. I think I can count on one hand how many thunderstorms I’ve seen this spring. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 6, 2022 12:55:49 GMT -6
SPC D1-3 outlooks split STL N,S,E and W...lol Lock it in This has been one slow severe season around here. I think I can count on one hand how many thunderstorms I’ve seen this spring. Other than the one MCV event last month with the swarm of weak tornadoes it's been mostly a non-event this spring for sure. |
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