|
|
Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jun 7, 2022 19:58:22 GMT -6
Watching Ryan Hall and earlier this evening he mentioned they were expecting a lot of hail, and the conditions were not that great for naders. Then all of a sudden the radar exploded and tornado warnings are everywhere. Of course Omaha gets all the good stuff now that I'm gone.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 7, 2022 20:00:20 GMT -6
Storms up in Nebraska and Iowa into northwestern MO are impressive some impressive HP Supercells. Unless they organize into a line/bow and propagate though, I don't see much if anything bothering us, meaning unless things change in the next few hours, this so called 'wet week' at least locally is looking like a bust.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 7, 2022 20:36:55 GMT -6
That MCS should have no problem making it into the metro late tonight/early morning. It will be elevated but 1500j/kg of MUCAPE with 60kts of effective shear is still a favorable severe environment  |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 7, 2022 21:38:43 GMT -6
Newer HRRRs the 01 and 02Z both show it making it as well as one of the WRFs and RGEM.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 7, 2022 21:45:50 GMT -6
Yeah, there should be enough juice to maintain it along/S of the boundary with the LLJ ramping up to around 20kts or more ahead of the maturing complex/MCV. I'm sure with the timing it will be in a state of decay/outflow dominant though...so gusty winds and lightning will be the main threat.
That supercell near La Junta, CO earlier was nasty looking!
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 7, 2022 22:31:19 GMT -6
Picture perfect QLCS out west...those are some very intense storms
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Jun 7, 2022 23:26:13 GMT -6
Cold pool developing- hopefully will help sustain it
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 8, 2022 2:00:40 GMT -6
Severe Thunderstorm watch up until 5am for portions of the area.
I'm wondering if this line will weaken some before it gets here.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jun 8, 2022 4:43:17 GMT -6
Est. 45-50mph gusts here 7 miles west of De Soto as gust front blew through.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jun 8, 2022 4:44:06 GMT -6
Lots of lightning, very little thunder yet.🤔🤔🤔🤔
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jun 8, 2022 4:46:59 GMT -6
Est 40-45 sustained winds now. More thunder too. Moderate rain so far
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jun 8, 2022 5:14:19 GMT -6
Light rain, light wind, occasional lightning, and internet's back, it's a good morning. Power flickered off for a few seconds twice as the main rain/lightning came through. Up to moderate rain now. 7 miles west of De Soto.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jun 8, 2022 5:27:11 GMT -6
Quick .45 inches of rain in St.Peters
Almost needed rain, however we have not been nearly as drybas others on this side of the metro.
After fridays rain chance definately looks more dry and summery
|
|
|
|
Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jun 8, 2022 5:54:25 GMT -6
That is a neat hook in the system up to the north.
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 8, 2022 6:42:28 GMT -6
.92" total this morning. Had .5" in less than 5 minutes. Very heavy downpour. Doggos were not happy with the thunder. I hope you all have a Happy Hump Day!
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 8, 2022 7:36:59 GMT -6
Guess the MCS made it afterall. That will help the rain situation a bit going forward. Also last 2 runs of the GFS have pulled back on the heat considerably again with now a trough settling in for a week between the 15th and the 22nd before the ridge slides back around the 23/24th of the month. Keeping the pattern of 2-3 days of a heat surge then a 7-10 day period of average to below normal temps before repeating the cycle over. Also known as part of the Rosby Wave Train or RRWT which has been quite active. Seems like as long as that's the case it could be hard for any weeks plus long heat waves to establish east of the Plains. Time will tell.
|
|
twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
|
Post by twocat on Jun 8, 2022 10:00:48 GMT -6
.28" according to the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete from the little system earlier this morning. Loud for about 5 minutes then just blew on by.
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Jun 8, 2022 10:19:52 GMT -6
.86 inches here. Thankful husband got the yard mowed yesterday while I ran errands all day.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 8, 2022 10:24:54 GMT -6
Got a little soaker this AM, but the gauge shows less than 0.25". Was definitely hoping for more...
Looks like any re-development today will likely be off to the east. Friday looks pretty unfavorable for anything substantial around here but we'll see how that trends.
Models are still struggling with how to handle the ridge next week. It's hard to imagine that much energy coming ashore and working inland not knocking down the ridge. It's definitely going to get pretty hot Tuesday and maybe Wednesday but if the GFS is in the ballpark that will be short lived as the NW flow comes back in. I still don't buy the prolonged heat wave that some of the globals are advertising. |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Jun 8, 2022 10:53:23 GMT -6
Got a little soaker this AM, but the gauge shows less than 0.25". Was definitely hoping for more...
Looks like any re-development today will likely be off to the east. Friday looks pretty unfavorable for anything substantial around here but we'll see how that trends.
Models are still struggling with how to handle the ridge next week. It's hard to imagine that much energy coming ashore and working inland not knocking down the ridge. It's definitely going to get pretty hot Tuesday and maybe Wednesday but if the GFS is in the ballpark that will be short lived as the NW flow comes back in. I still don't buy the prolonged heat wave that some of the globals are advertising. I'm sure we will get run by run updates. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jun 8, 2022 11:07:42 GMT -6
definitely get toasty for at least a few days before the ridge breaks down/ moves out. The cooler periods I think will be shorter and shorter as time goes by though. Per usual summer around here, except the few rare exceptions.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jun 8, 2022 12:52:47 GMT -6
Could snow.
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Jun 8, 2022 12:58:41 GMT -6
Got a little soaker this AM, but the gauge shows less than 0.25". Was definitely hoping for more...
Looks like any re-development today will likely be off to the east. Friday looks pretty unfavorable for anything substantial around here but we'll see how that trends.
Models are still struggling with how to handle the ridge next week. It's hard to imagine that much energy coming ashore and working inland not knocking down the ridge. It's definitely going to get pretty hot Tuesday and maybe Wednesday but if the GFS is in the ballpark that will be short lived as the NW flow comes back in. I still don't buy the prolonged heat wave that some of the globals are advertising. I'm sure we will get run by run updates. Anyone seen what the 18z models show as far as heat on the 17th/18th? |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 8, 2022 19:03:19 GMT -6
Nice little downpour that came through...wasn't expecting that
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Jun 9, 2022 7:45:40 GMT -6
Let's hope, like most of the winter/spring, that the models back off some next week. We haven't had much heat yet this year. Going straight to upper-90s, near 100, is going to be a bit of a shock to the system.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jun 9, 2022 8:25:07 GMT -6
Next week is going to be gross
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jun 9, 2022 9:03:40 GMT -6
Next week is going to be gross The older I get the more and more I hate the extremes. I am dreading this. Doesn’t help that the electric bill will be an arm and 2 legs. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 9, 2022 9:04:15 GMT -6
Next week is going to be gross 🤮  |
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Jun 9, 2022 9:30:57 GMT -6
Next week is going to be gross But I'm sure it'll be a dry heat. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jun 9, 2022 10:13:56 GMT -6
Latest GFS is rolling in with 850mb temp at 27C for St. Louis on Monday but clouds (if you believe it) keep us below 100F. Tuesday and Wednesday as heat builds give us another couple shots at 100+. Can't wait.
|
|
