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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 9, 2022 10:56:26 GMT -6
gfs has a hot week, followed by a cooler weekend, then the heat comes back the following monday
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 9, 2022 12:03:48 GMT -6
Glad everyone’s so excited about the heat wave, NOT!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2022 13:31:03 GMT -6
Still not buying the prolonged heat wave...let's see how it trends.
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Post by REB on Jun 9, 2022 13:59:31 GMT -6
Still not buying the prolonged heat wave...let's see how it trends. I sure hope you are right. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 9, 2022 19:18:00 GMT -6
Anybody going to see the 3rd Jurassic World movie? My kids are so excited as am I. Reviews are horrible for it. But, honestly didn't expect them to be positive. I've enjoyed every one.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 9, 2022 21:29:38 GMT -6
Anybody going to see the 3rd Jurassic World movie? My kids are so excited as am I. Reviews are horrible for it. But, honestly didn't expect them to be. Lol Me and a couple friends are going to see it this weekend. I love a good dinosaur movie. I haven’t looked at any reviews for it and probably won’t until after seeing it. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 9, 2022 21:53:42 GMT -6
We may need to keep an eye out for an MCS or two this weekend. The northwest flow will still be in place with a couple disturbances riding in the flow. Some pretty unstable air will be advecting in as the ridge begins to flex its muscle. The NAM has some eye popping derecho composite parameter numbers around here.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 9, 2022 22:28:38 GMT -6
Anybody going to see the 3rd Jurassic World movie? My kids are so excited as am I. Reviews are horrible for it. But, honestly didn't expect them to be. Lol Me and a couple friends are going to see it this weekend. I love a good dinosaur movie. I haven’t looked at any reviews for it and probably won’t until after seeing it. Ya I usually don't either. It popped up on my Facebook in bold print. But I haven't read any. |
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Post by jeepers on Jun 10, 2022 6:49:39 GMT -6
Saw Top Gun with my husband and remembered how fun it is to actually go to a movie in person. Don’t care much for reviews, I’ve ignored most of them for decades. So yes, Jurassic Park is on my to do list.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 10, 2022 8:09:58 GMT -6
Here is the latest NBM forecast for KSTL.
Being so close to the summer solstice, nearly cloud-free sky, little to no wildfire smoke, a 594 DM ridge, and strong southwest flow forecasted for Tuesday and Wednesday we could be looking at 900 W/m2 of irradiance mid day in combination with a 100F high. That should help drive up pool temperatures close to or even into the low 90s for some of you and if you're lucky.
This has the potential to be modestly glorious. I mean it's not going to be 2012 or anything, but there's still potential. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
NBE TEXT BULLETIN - STATION KSTL
KSTL NBM V4.0 NBE GUIDANCE 6/10/2022 1000 UTC
SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17|SAT CLIMO
UTC 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00
FHR 14 26| 38 50| 62 74| 86 98|110 122|134 146|158 170|182
TXN 81 66| 87 72| 92 78|100 80|100 78| 98 75| 91 70| 92 65 85
XND 3 1| 1 3| 3 3| 3 4| 2 3| 3 3| 2 2| 4
TMP 77 68| 85 75| 90 80| 96 81| 95 80| 93 77| 86 72| 88
TSD 2 2| 2 2| 4 3| 3 2| 3 3| 3 4| 4 3| 4
DPT 60 63| 62 67| 70 71| 68 69| 65 67| 65 67| 61 62| 58
DSD 2 2| 2 2| 3 2| 2 2| 3 1| 2 2| 4 3| 4
SKY 61 59| 36 36| 38 23| 20 6| 11 11| 22 35| 21 5| 6
SSD 38 34| 27 25| 23 16| 14 7| 8 14| 22 25| 26 8| 7
WDR 13 19| 25 18| 18 19| 20 20| 19 20| 20 28| 33 4| 3
WSP 5 2| 5 5| 8 6| 10 9| 11 7| 9 6| 7 4| 7
WSD 2 1| 1 2| 1 1| 1 2| 3 2| 2 1| 1 1| 2
GST 7 4| 6 10| 11 9| 11 11| 12 11| 11 11| 11 7| 8
GSD 3 3| 3 2| 3 1| 3 2| 4 3| 2 3| 3 3| 3
P12 60 22| 3 8| 15 10| 1 0| 1 5| 17 33| 9 8| 4 23 22
Q12 2 2| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
Q24 4| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 98
DUR 1 2| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
T12 40 28| 20 21| 50 28| 29 17| 25 18| 28 24| 38 18| 13
PZR 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
PSN 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
PPL 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
PRA 100 100|100 100|100 100|100 100|100 100|100 100|100 100|100
S12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
SLV 120 97|130 130|140 140|130 130|130 130|130 120|120 120|110
I12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
S24 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0|
SOL 32 1| 58 4| 47 2| 56 2| 65 2| 66 2| 39 2| 70
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 10, 2022 9:07:30 GMT -6
We may need to keep an eye out for an MCS or two this weekend. The northwest flow will still be in place with a couple disturbances riding in the flow. Some pretty unstable air will be advecting in as the ridge begins to flex its muscle. The NAM has some eye popping derecho composite parameter numbers around here. Last time I checked the models it looked like Sunday had decent potential for an MCS to develop nearby. It also looked like some potential for the warm front to light up Monday AM which could dampen the excessive heat a bit. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 10, 2022 9:24:54 GMT -6
We may need to keep an eye out for an MCS or two this weekend. The northwest flow will still be in place with a couple disturbances riding in the flow. Some pretty unstable air will be advecting in as the ridge begins to flex its muscle. The NAM has some eye popping derecho composite parameter numbers around here. Last time I checked the models it looked like Sunday had decent potential for an MCS to develop nearby. It also looked like some potential for the warm front to light up Monday AM which could dampen the excessive heat a bit. No shortage of cape if something gets rolling  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 10, 2022 9:31:59 GMT -6
Yeah, that's a loaded setup for sure...
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Post by dschreib on Jun 10, 2022 11:14:47 GMT -6
... This has the potential to be modestly glorious. I mean it's not going to be 2012 or anything, but there's still potential. Let's keep our fingers crossed. You misspelled "awful", "disgusting", or any other appropriate adjective that should be used in that sentence. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 10, 2022 11:32:25 GMT -6
Last time I checked the models it looked like Sunday had decent potential for an MCS to develop nearby. It also looked like some potential for the warm front to light up Monday AM which could dampen the excessive heat a bit. No shortage of cape if something gets rolling Nice shortwave moving thru that CAPE too. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 10, 2022 11:36:11 GMT -6
NAM has a solid cap here on Sunday though.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 10, 2022 11:44:58 GMT -6
Sunday is a day of interest, but it's got big bust potential. If we get hit by an MCS, we could get some pretty big winds, rain from it and keep a lid on temps, if we don't we could be looking at near 100*F heat from the metro and points southwest. Either way Monday through Wednesday better be some serious 'caveman' talk about how hot it's gonna be with upper 90s to low 100s shown on pretty much most to almost all major models at this point. Looks like Thursday the ridge starts to flatten and back off a bit with a new trough coming in, but looks temporary before another 2-3 day heat surge comes. Seems like after that things get back to the northwest flow and also depending if a hurricane can get going in the Gulf like the GFS is showing.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 10, 2022 12:03:40 GMT -6
Anybody going to see the 3rd Jurassic World movie? My kids are so excited as am I. Reviews are horrible for it. But, honestly didn't expect them to be positive. I've enjoyed every one. Plan on seeing it at the drive in this weekend at some point. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 10, 2022 12:06:44 GMT -6
Might need to watch trends to the NW this afternoon along the developing warm front draped across N Central MO up into S IA. Clearing out to the west is destabilizing things and the 60kt+ mid-level jet streak nosing in will create enough shear to organize storms if they get going. The latest HRRR drops a small complex down through central MO but I would expect a more SE movement with that towards the Metro. The 3km NAM has that complex dropping right down the river valley before falling apart on our doorstep around 9pm...sounds about right, lol
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Jun 10, 2022 12:34:11 GMT -6
Saw Top Gun with my husband and remembered how fun it is to actually go to a movie in person. Don’t care much for reviews, I’ve ignored most of them for decades. So yes, Jurassic Park is on my to do list. Has the audience behavior improved any? Last time wife and I went (long time ago) it was pathetic. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 10, 2022 13:06:52 GMT -6
Might need to watch trends to the NW this afternoon along the developing warm front draped across N Central MO up into S IA. Clearing out to the west is destabilizing things and the 60kt+ mid-level jet streak nosing in will create enough shear to organize storms if they get going. The latest HRRR drops a small complex down through central MO but I would expect a more SE movement with that towards the Metro. The 3km NAM has that complex dropping right down the river valley before falling apart on our doorstep around 9pm...sounds about right, lol Looks like we should see some development this afternoon  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 10, 2022 14:52:40 GMT -6
Once the mcs track finally shifts northeast we are going to bake! I hate heat. I hate reporting on heat. It can become incredibly dangerous for our vulnerable populations... and we can talk about for days and days and the affect is still the same. There are no real "sexy" pictures for TV... no dark, scary clouds to show, no EF5 tornado racing into the metro... no urgent story to tell. It is just a slow motion, silent killer that no matter what we do seems to sneak up on folks.
BE READY FOR HEAT next week folks...record heat is a real possibility... which is never good in summer.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 10, 2022 15:09:14 GMT -6
Let's go ahead and take a look at the current records.
Highest Max, Highest Min
June 13: 98 in 1952, 80 in 2017
June 14: 97 in 1987, 78 in 1981
June 15: 101 in 1952, 80 in 2016
June 16: 100 in 1952, 79 in 2016
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 10, 2022 16:31:12 GMT -6
Small supercell near Greenfield showing some rotation and a little hook. I'd bet it's pretty high based though.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 10, 2022 16:47:11 GMT -6
The storms on the Lincoln -Warren County line aren't showing much movement. People under them are getting a good dump of rain.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 10, 2022 17:10:22 GMT -6
Out here near Shipman and that storm has nice structure...very well defined and compact wall cloud
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Post by amstilost on Jun 10, 2022 19:56:31 GMT -6
If this cell misses me to the West I am going to scream. I've had a few drops of rain but it look like the cell just took an abrupt Southward shift.😭😭
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Post by amstilost on Jun 10, 2022 20:19:10 GMT -6
AAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!! Hope that didn't startle anyone.🤪🤪🤪
The pavement is just barely wet here, 7 miles west of De Soto, and a new cell has popped north-northeast of me in Jeff Co that looks to miss me to the north an East.
Prove me wrong, I could certainly use a good rain shower for the garden.
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Post by amstilost on Jun 10, 2022 20:27:58 GMT -6
I retract my 'scream', and will insert just a 'grumble'. Light rain shower but enough to make puddles in the driveway and the rain gutters flowing some.👍👍
Still hoping for more.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 11, 2022 7:49:09 GMT -6
So, where are the excessive heat watches? Looks like 4 days of big heat, starting tomorrow.
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