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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 15, 2022 16:01:52 GMT -6
Thanks everyone for the Bday wishes. I wish it was cooler, but what'ya gonna do?! Can't..... Resist.......
It's cooler by the lake.
Haha, should have gone out to Litchfield! |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jun 15, 2022 16:26:58 GMT -6
Happy Birthday!!
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Post by weatherj on Jun 15, 2022 16:30:21 GMT -6
Happy Birthday brtn !
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Jun 15, 2022 16:48:36 GMT -6
Happy Birthday BRTN! Wishing you many more.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 15, 2022 17:43:02 GMT -6
18Z GFS has got the hot stuff all throughout it's entire run after this weekend. 597DM ridge just wants to camp, and camp, and camp... It's going to be a very long Summer... Maybe.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 15, 2022 17:46:14 GMT -6
Also FWIW the SPC has declared the storm complex that started near Chicago on the 13th and ended on the 14th in the VA/NC border as an official 'derecho'.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jun 15, 2022 18:42:26 GMT -6
The 12Z euro next week high temps:
Monday:. 98F
Tuesday:. 103F
Wednesday:. 106F
Thursday:. 102F
Friday: 106F
Then going into Saturday. At 6-7AM the euro has 26-30C 850mb temps over a huge area moving NE. We are already running 27/28C.
925mb temps at 6-7AM are 31C and 32-33C over a huge area to our West and South.
Saturday if it's sunny would probably be pushing 107-110.
I don't know.
These numbers coming out this early on a model are insane
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jun 15, 2022 18:54:10 GMT -6
I’m already sick of working in the heat and it’s only been a week lol
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 15, 2022 20:04:56 GMT -6
Darn it, Friv! It’s too early for this junk! I sure hope it isn’t like this in Michigan! Hot car trip there and back!
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399
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Post by lunchladyd on Jun 15, 2022 20:52:53 GMT -6
Are those storms out west and north west going to make it here? Sure would like to see some rain, for the plants.
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 15, 2022 22:11:36 GMT -6
Overnight Thursday/ Friday morning is a watcher
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 15, 2022 22:11:58 GMT -6
Merry birthday BRTN
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Post by amstilost on Jun 15, 2022 22:56:11 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Brtn.....
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 16, 2022 6:39:16 GMT -6
It is likely that we are going to log another record for the highest daily low. The low so far this morning is 82F. There is a chance the value at midnight could be lower, but as of right now the NBM is saying that 82F observation will be the new record. The previous record was 79F in 2016.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 16, 2022 8:22:22 GMT -6
Models this morning are favoring the MCS late tonight tracking right down the Mississippi. Hopefully we can get a good area wide soaker before the heat builds back in next week.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 16, 2022 8:47:20 GMT -6
Models this morning are favoring the MCS late tonight tracking right down the Mississippi. Hopefully we can get a good area wide soaker before the heat builds back in next week. Seems like models have shifted the boundary/instability gradient and MCS centroid a bit north the past couple runs...hopefully the complex will chase the deeper instability southward down the river valley like you said. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 16, 2022 8:56:29 GMT -6
Wouldn't get my hopes up
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 16, 2022 8:58:51 GMT -6
Very little shear available so any MCS that does develop will need to be cold pool driven. High mostly uncapped MLCAPE should be present well into the evening/night so the potential is there. Some areas just to the north of I-70 in MO/IL that have basically seen no severe weather for several months have a modest chance of seeing their first watches/warnings in quite some time. While we are no strangers to high cape low shear severe MCSs, it seems like we just can't be conservative enough with severe weather forecasting around here over the last several years.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 16, 2022 10:06:34 GMT -6
I'm getting my hopes up
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jun 16, 2022 10:16:49 GMT -6
BRTN I would be perfectly happy losing sleep to that.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 16, 2022 10:22:43 GMT -6
I'm getting my hopes up
Ya CAMs look favorable. Fingers crossed.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 16, 2022 10:36:44 GMT -6
Model blend definitely seems to favor along/N of 70...but I think outflow will tend to propagate it southward with time. Metro definitely looking to be in the crosshairs.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jun 16, 2022 12:19:30 GMT -6
I don't have to roll out of bed until 0650, I am ready.
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Post by jeepers on Jun 16, 2022 12:21:23 GMT -6
Bring it. Break this mess.
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 16, 2022 15:59:05 GMT -6
Storms already trying to get going in SW IA and NW MO. These may struggle some initially but certainly once LLJ kicks in the storms will mature and should develop a cold pool. Once that happens most trajectory guidance (propagation vectors, thickness, and instability gradient) would suggest a east-southeastward movement. Plenty of instability out there, mesoanalysis showing extreme 6500 j/kg of SBCAPE in eastern MO currently which will wane but should remain high even as the sun goes down. Lets see how this plays out.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 16, 2022 17:20:56 GMT -6
The last few runs of the HRRR have been hitting the area hard tonight. Latest run is *chef's kiss*  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 16, 2022 17:37:17 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 16, 2022 17:58:03 GMT -6
The last few runs of the HRRR have been hitting the area hard tonight. Latest run is *chef's kiss* <fingers crossed> |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 16, 2022 18:05:21 GMT -6
Storm initiation has been earlier than CAMS indicated, but it remains to be seen if this cluster near Kirksville blasts off or just bubbles along as it tracks to the east/southeast.
I do tend to agree that there should be an increase overnight as the LLJ tries to ramp up... but looking at the 850 winds only shows 10-15kts of 850mb flow... with an occasional 20kt barb. That's not exactly eye popping... but it may be enough to get things going. If the outflow boundary orients more perpendicular to the 850mb flow... then obviously that will help.
The long term motion of the current small cluster is following the theta-e gradient left behind by the remnant outflow from last night's convection... so a bit of south of due east motion. The trends seem to keep this little complex shuffling along and we may need to wait for more pronounced development with the subtle increase in the 850mb flow after sunset....that's when an uptick should commence over northern Missouri.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 16, 2022 18:10:31 GMT -6
The 23z HRRR doesn't look very realistic.... the 22z on the other hand looks reasonable... except that it has no indication of the ongoing activity. So....
The new little cell that has popped up near Moberly may be interesting. It's actually right on an apparent boundary that is lifting back north...likely the outflow boundary from last night. Wondering if that may acquire more of a supercell structure at least initially considering its location on that boundary.
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