Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 13, 2022 14:55:16 GMT -6
To be honest guys, we could nit pick everything about every storm. I mean there is always a garentee change in the evolution with each storm. I still think the placement of the SPC severe weather zones looked good. Especially with the Slight risk and Enhanced risks. I mean come on, we've talked numerous times about those two zones these past several yrs. I could care less if I in. Slight or Enhanced zone. I feel like they are one in the same.
What I'm getting at is. I don't think anyone should crap on our local METS with their forecasts. They were all pretty on par. The moderate risk was south and southeast. That to me, was where they expected the "greater" severe weather to be. And it is/was. Now it may not of been "as" bad as they thought down that way. But going by current conditions down there. I see tornado warnings. Now was the moderate risk a bit too far north. Maybe...but I seen severe thunderstorm warnings just south of the STL area earlier. So....why are folks complaining on Facebook??? That was well advertised!
Now, I know I'm going to get back lash for staying this. But with both Spring or Winter seasons. I always want the most extreme here. So for me. I was disappointed NOT being in the Moderate risk. Lol
Before anyone says anything...No I don't want destruction. NO I don't want loss of life. I get that that sounds contradictory. But I love ALL WEATHER. So obviously I get hyped up with tornadoes, hail, intense lightning. And a good snowstorm.
Post by lunchladyd on Apr 13, 2022 17:54:34 GMT -6
Well I will tell you, it was quite the stormy day here in Silex. We had torrential rain, and wind. It was right when the kids were dismissing from school. Roads were washed out, and water pouring over the road in low lying areas. The cuivre river is bank full.
That’s all everyone talked about yesterday and this morning, news/schools sent out texts/ work everyone was talking about “severe storms and tornadoes “ great to get the word out, but at my office everyone is now talking about how over hyped the forecast was. Someone just mentioned today was like most of our winter storms that get predicted and never materialize… We didn’t even get thunder or lightning, no wind just some light to moderate rain.
And they should have been talking about it because the threat was real. Had they not been talking about it and the worst occurred, who knows...I do know darts would be thrown our way for NOT talking it up.
It was a good forecast, based on good science and good old shool tools. We will do our best to learn something from this, but Im not sure how much it will change in the future. The reality is that forecasting high end events will always come with the risk of a high end bust. There is NEVER a sure thing... just different levels of maybe. And at a level 3 out of 5... we were still only half way up the maybe list (does that even make sense lol?)
Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 13, 2022 19:28:22 GMT -6
They need bigger shovels up there.
As for today, Glenn made a great comparison this evening...it was like the game jenga. Lots of blocks are needed to build an outbreak... pull the wrong one and it falls apart. And pull the same piece out today... it collapses. Do it tomorrow... it does not. It's jist how crazy weather can be.
That's how I feel about lake effect snow lol. And maybe a classic plains tornado outbreak.
I think this is the 10 year anniversary of the last really large plains outbreak. Read it somewhere anyway.
Its the ten year anniversary of my last trip to the plains. I was accompanied by Bellevillewxguy and a former member of this board. If I recall correctly it was a high risk day during a multiple day duration event. The original target was extreme south central nebraska. That target busted the same way yesterday did here, and we were forced to make a huge correction mid-day after storms started firing in extreme southwest Kansas. Ended up on a great tornado around Great Bend, Ks that lifted just before Salina, Ks. One of the best nature experiences you can get.
Chris, its worth it to head out on a big day, but the bigger the day the bigger the traffic jam. This storm was on a Saturday and the police did a great job at keeping the main convoy at a safe distance, but some of the higher profile media guys blasted much closer and disregarded law enforcement. From a photogenic standpoint, this storm was as good as it gets. A distant second was the Litchfield, IL tornado the year before.
From a science prospective, the Mills Mall tornado in 2014 was memorable because it was 5 percent risk day, and I was able to watch the tornadogenesis cycle from start to finish while on the phone with Chris.
My bucket list: Multi day legit blizzard, Plains picturesque tornado chase, extreme lake effect snow event, major hurricane, but not too major lol, northern lights in Alaska or Norway, and achieving world peace. I'm afraid I will not live long enough.
Already have my hotel room in Cape Girardeau for the April 8 2024 solar eclipse- 4+ minutes of totality
I feel like a $100.
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
gonefishin - WashMO: We have Grandparents Day/Open House at school on Sunday. Getting nervous about the idea of our grandparents walking between church and school with icy conditions. Glad it’s not my call. Hoping the ice holds off.
Jan 26, 2023 9:16:44 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: The RAP has seen the light! 21Z run is back on course for a major winter storm for almost the entire area!
Jan 23, 2023 16:20:25 GMT -6
ajd446: Is it me or does it appear the 21z sref had a decent shift NW.
Jan 22, 2023 18:29:06 GMT -6
bfsmith81: Christmas Edition thread seems to be broken? Last page of the thread won't load now, with an HTTP 410 error.
Jan 15, 2023 12:29:29 GMT -6
maddogchief: LOUD NOISES!!!
Feb 25, 2019 2:31:00 GMT -6
grizzlebeard: I'll put this here since it rarely rolls over: Please include your location in your profile, or identify your location when posting observations. You saying it is 20 and raining doesn't help if we don't know where you are. That is all.
Feb 7, 2019 13:44:40 GMT -6
giarC71: Hello...this could be historic. And those models of 16 inches or 19 inches.. coild be real..
Jan 11, 2019 18:04:52 GMT -6