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Post by cardsnweather on Sept 18, 2022 6:16:52 GMT -6
Congrats Chris!
Quite the line the coming through. Didn’t really expect to see that.
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 18, 2022 6:34:09 GMT -6
The way this cimplex made it much further south than modeled makes me wonder if tonight's severe threat will be in the metro as well with the boundary further south
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 18, 2022 6:57:36 GMT -6
Very strong downpour with cloud to ground lightning in St.Peters
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 18, 2022 7:28:02 GMT -6
Really nice soaker this morning!
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Post by amstilost on Sept 18, 2022 7:51:04 GMT -6
Adorable looking puppy Chris.
I'm hoping to get some much needed rain 7 miles west of De Soto. It looks promising and I am hearing thunder.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 18, 2022 8:39:41 GMT -6
Pretty potent looking setup for severe wx developing into this evening. Models are showing a favorable combo of CAPE and SRH across the region with storm initiation taking place up in SE IA or far N/NE MO late this afternoon. This will favor the IL side as they track SE into late evening. But the retreating outflow from this morning's decaying complex needs to be watched out west. If anything can develop along that there would probably be a tornado threat with enhanced low-level shear/vorticity along it. But with the bulk of the large-scale ascent further N, that's a very conditional threat across most of MO.
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 18, 2022 8:43:46 GMT -6
An unexpected (for me at least) over achiever this morning for areas I-70 and S. We could definitely use the rain! Plus, I don't like going into fall/winter with any type of drought. It messes with our snow chances throughout winter typically. I know I'm getting ahead of myself since it's only Sept. The ground could be become dry or wet before winter, who knows! At least the ground isn't as dry as it was for areas I-70 and S in the metro.
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 18, 2022 9:01:37 GMT -6
I have a feeling the 11 a.m. or 1130 update will have the slight risk south and west into the metro as I notice short term models seem to be bringing the strong complex very close to the metro tonight.
I agree with you all it will be interesting to see what the outflow will do and if it has time to make it as far north as some models think for convective initiation.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 18, 2022 10:40:10 GMT -6
Meh. IL may get something, not much of anything west of the river. Spc outlook pretty much the same as earlier
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Post by REB on Sept 18, 2022 10:51:54 GMT -6
Nothing here.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 18, 2022 10:56:25 GMT -6
Challenging... and interesting set-up tonight. 500mb height rises are forecast over most of my forecast area in MO... but are more muted in IL. Hard to get too excited about storm potential in areas where heights are rising. However, small area of height falls associated with the shortwave topping the ridge does briefly knock down heights near and most definitely northeast of STL late this evening into tonight. The retreating outflow may mostly mix out in the strong daylight today... but the remnant reflection of it should retreat to northeast MO and western IL. I think SPC may be a touch too far north... but not by much. I Think the region from far southeast IA down to Hannibal...and extending over to about effingham and Vandalia are the place to watch... Early on... and along the western edge of the MCS... super cells will be a concern capable of damaging hail, wind and possibly tornadoes. STL meteo may be a struggle because of the rising heights...but it is worth watching for sure.
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 18, 2022 11:27:45 GMT -6
Thank you Chris for your thoughts.
I always get a bit nervous on southwest edges because of the supercell threat you mentioned.
Thank you for your insight and for this amazing weather forum!!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 18, 2022 15:15:47 GMT -6
6.9 earthquake in Taiwan. At least some significant damage. Haven't heard any injury or fatality numbers.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 18, 2022 18:18:59 GMT -6
Tornado warned cell in the Missouri/Iowa Border. That's the beginning of tonight's action folks!
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Sept 18, 2022 18:22:28 GMT -6
Chris, Rosie is so cute! I just love beagles.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 18, 2022 18:36:42 GMT -6
Chris, does Rosie have nice toes?
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Sept 18, 2022 18:41:21 GMT -6
Chris, does Rosie have nice toes? I just spit coffee all over my phone! |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Sept 18, 2022 21:06:07 GMT -6
Tornado warned cell in the Missouri/Iowa Border. That's the beginning of tonight's action folks! Looks like it wants to run the river south |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 18, 2022 21:16:26 GMT -6
Chris, does Rosie have nice toes? Are you going to put polish on her nails before it snows? |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Sept 19, 2022 7:39:10 GMT -6
Wow... What a cool breeze this morning out of the East thanks to the storms last night that dropped through Eastern Illinois.
It was very surprising to have such a cool breeze.
Unfortunately the breakdown of the Easterly wind is already underway.. in 2-3 hours it will be like it never happened.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Sept 19, 2022 8:03:27 GMT -6
Man, yesterday, while at my son's football game, the first half of the game was great with the nice breeze blowing. The second half was like we were trapped in an inferno as the sun melted us. Can't wait for the latter part of the week when it cools down.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 19, 2022 8:51:40 GMT -6
Man, yesterday, while at my son's football game, the first half of the game was great with the nice breeze blowing. The second half was like we were trapped in an inferno as the sun melted us. Can't wait for the latter part of the week when it cools down. Beautiful morning. Took the girls to the orchard. It got hot quick so we left. Just gotta get through this heat wave... |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Sept 19, 2022 9:00:38 GMT -6
Chris, does Rosie have nice toes? Are you going to put polish on her nails before it snows? I thought the same thing! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 19, 2022 9:08:21 GMT -6
Well that was a bust around here last night...those clusters ended up tracking quite a bit further east than what CAMs were showing. At least we got a little rain yesterday morning.
Looks like there's a decent chance of rain and storms Wed PM/Thurs AM with the front...models are showing some mid-level FGEN developing in response to shortwaves rippling over the boundary. That will be a nice relief from this hot spell with lows in the U40s possible Fri morning.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 19, 2022 10:32:56 GMT -6
Well that was a bust around here last night...those clusters ended up tracking quite a bit further east than what CAMs were showing. At least we got a little rain yesterday morning. Looks like there's a decent chance of rain and storms Wed PM/Thurs AM with the front...models are showing some mid-level FGEN developing in response to shortwaves rippling over the boundary. That will be a nice relief from this hot spell with lows in the U40s possible Fri morning. I hope that rain happens Thursday……we received nothing again this weekend……. |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 19, 2022 10:46:59 GMT -6
NBM is saying 97F tomorrow which would tie the record high.
GFS and Euro are both saying Wednesday will be near record high again, but I would not be surprised if the front encroaches at least enough to suppress the high if not just outright barrel through before peak heating. Wednesday is definitely the harder forecast in terms of the daily high.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 19, 2022 13:06:03 GMT -6
Most models have FROPA midday on Wednesday...would think highs will be at least a few degrees cooler than tomorrow. Southern counties will probably bake though.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 19, 2022 15:18:34 GMT -6
miserable out, for Sept 19
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Post by amstilost on Sept 19, 2022 17:16:45 GMT -6
After the gorgeous 2 weeks of weather today was pretty ugly.
Off topic and a Public Service Announcement. I don't think there will be a 'moderator' issue here, but anymore, who knows.
Women, please stay vigilant with your mammagraphy screenings. If you have not any screenings yet please reconsider and get them set up. Early, early detection is the key. We just had a scare with my wife but it was caught very, very early. It is still a major upset of normal daily life but nothing like it 'could have' been. Stay vigilant and if you are at the age or in the risk group and have not had any screenings, please do yourself and your family a favor by starting now. It really makes a difference.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 19, 2022 17:44:18 GMT -6
Yep, early detection is key and can make a huge difference in the outcome. Not only with breast cancer but others as well.
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