My honey kept waiting for the sun to appear and warm up to melt it off his truck!! He gave up and brushed the pretty snow off it! I asked if he measured first! Nope! It’ll prob be frosty to scrape in the am for church!
Ok southern folks. Your years of complaining can end now lol! Congrats on your suprise. There is literally no shred of data that anyone could trust that came out with enough time to adjust to this. Yes, there were one or two clues... but we've jumped on those clues before only to have it not play out... way more often than not. The science simply got beat last night.
This reminded me of being a kid along time ago when forecasting wasn’t that great on snow totals , they would always use 1-3 inches and you would wake up to 8 inches of snow ….. last night honestly made me feel like a kid again
Bingo! This is exactly my mindset today. Times sure have changed and surprises are hard to come by in my opinion. This definitely eases some of the frustrations of years past.
I have some snow left here...about an inch or so melted off yesterday, but everything is still nice and white. The jackpot was just to my west, hopefully you guys to the west and north of the metro get a good ground covering of at least an inch +.
“Don’t knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn’t start a conversation if it didn’t change once in a while.” ~ Kin Hubbard
It looks like most models have the St. Louis split tomorrow night, maybe an inch or less for metro area. Areas south possibly a little more with a heavier band setting up well north /west of the metro. Basically what the NWS has forecast. But if they don’t treat the roads enough to cause issues Tuesday morning
Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 13, 2022 11:21:38 GMT -6
Looking at the 12z data and I am pretty comfortable with the idea of widespread light snow event for most of our area. The track of the key features (500mb vort max and 850mb low) is generally just southwest of I-44 when you take the composite of the morning data...and this falls pretty close to previous output. Considering the speed of this forcing and thermal profiles...while applying a modified GYB technique...the swath of most significant snow will line up from Central/North central Missouri up to near Quincy and Hanibal area. I expect a solid 2-4 inches up in that region...and maybe upwards of 5 if the speed of this thing slows down a bit. I would include Pike County, MO in the 2-4 range for this sytem. Further south...in line with the track of the 500mb vort max and 850mb low center, I expect a rather short duration, but potentially quite intense burst of snow that may only last 2-3 hours at most. This will be the result of intense, but short-lived, forcing directly in advance of the above mentioned features...working in concert with what models forecast to be strong frontogenesis in the 700mb layer in advance of the system. Typically, we get some convection...or convective elements... in advance of vort max enduced precipitation...and this can sometimes mess with precip types...even in otherwise cold columns. Once the burst of more intense snow passes (again 2-3 hours max) the dry slot works in and we lose most of the cloud ice. This will lead to a region of either very fine snow, drizzle or even some light sleet that will persist through about midday Tuesday. Accumulations for the lion's share of the viewing area will run from 1-2 inches...with two exceptions. The first, I mentioned above...Pike County MO should see 2-4 with isolated heavier amounts possible. The other exception will be in areas southeast of the 850mb/500mb vort track...Roughly along and southeast of a line from Farmington up to the Kaskaskia River (same areas that saw big suprise snows). This is not a good set-up for snow for you guys. It's hard to get much snow south of the 850mb/vort track...so I'd say less than 1" for most areas that hit the jackpot in the suprise event the other night (near and south of the Kaskaskia River).
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
gonefishin - WashMO: We have Grandparents Day/Open House at school on Sunday. Getting nervous about the idea of our grandparents walking between church and school with icy conditions. Glad it’s not my call. Hoping the ice holds off.
Jan 26, 2023 9:16:44 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: The RAP has seen the light! 21Z run is back on course for a major winter storm for almost the entire area!
Jan 23, 2023 16:20:25 GMT -6
ajd446: Is it me or does it appear the 21z sref had a decent shift NW.
Jan 22, 2023 18:29:06 GMT -6
bfsmith81: Christmas Edition thread seems to be broken? Last page of the thread won't load now, with an HTTP 410 error.
Jan 15, 2023 12:29:29 GMT -6
maddogchief: LOUD NOISES!!!
Feb 25, 2019 2:31:00 GMT -6
grizzlebeard: I'll put this here since it rarely rolls over: Please include your location in your profile, or identify your location when posting observations. You saying it is 20 and raining doesn't help if we don't know where you are. That is all.
Feb 7, 2019 13:44:40 GMT -6
giarC71: Hello...this could be historic. And those models of 16 inches or 19 inches.. coild be real..
Jan 11, 2019 18:04:52 GMT -6