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Post by mosue56 on Nov 12, 2022 13:49:11 GMT -6
My honey kept waiting for the sun to appear and warm up to melt it off his truck!! He gave up and brushed the pretty snow off it! I asked if he measured first! Nope! It’ll prob be frosty to scrape in the am for church!
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 12, 2022 15:02:26 GMT -6
At least monday night looks like a widespread 1 to 3 based on NWS thinking just got to see where that heavy band sets up which could be a nowcast situation.
Very early to have this much winter weather this far south.
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Post by weatherman222 on Nov 12, 2022 15:26:14 GMT -6
Ok southern folks. Your years of complaining can end now lol! Congrats on your suprise. There is literally no shred of data that anyone could trust that came out with enough time to adjust to this. Yes, there were one or two clues... but we've jumped on those clues before only to have it not play out... way more often than not. The science simply got beat last night. This reminded me of being a kid along time ago when forecasting wasn’t that great on snow totals , they would always use 1-3 inches and you would wake up to 8 inches of snow ….. last night honestly made me feel like a kid again Bingo! This is exactly my mindset today. Times sure have changed and surprises are hard to come by in my opinion. This definitely eases some of the frustrations of years past. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 12, 2022 15:55:08 GMT -6
18z Icon has a nice 3-6 inch band Tuesday morning just north of 70.
Personally, I think anyone south of that band is just getting mood flakes or a light coating.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 12, 2022 16:35:39 GMT -6
Not really. We had two recent winters with Veterans Day snows. The difference this year is the prolonged cold, though.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 12, 2022 16:38:25 GMT -6
Not really. We had two recent winters with Veterans Day snows. The difference this year is the prolonged cold, though. You can thank the polar vortex stretch. See, sometimes it does have material impacts on STL weather. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 12, 2022 17:11:28 GMT -6
I remember sometime in the early 80’s we had a winter where we were playing hockey on the pond by Christmas …… it has happened before
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 12, 2022 21:30:26 GMT -6
Has Radarscope always covered Australia? Tonight I noticed a weather warning for that part of the world, including a radar image
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Post by bear1 on Nov 12, 2022 22:48:06 GMT -6
I've been using radarscope free for the past 3-4 years & I've always gotten the severe weather alerts for Australia along with radar image if you press 1 of the alert icons.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2022 6:06:54 GMT -6
Whatever does fall Monday night/Tuesday morning will be gone by noon. Hi res nam does like an area just north of 70.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2022 8:19:36 GMT -6
The 06Z nam. Actually drops the most snow over the Southern half. It has a stronger more compact vort max even closing off for time over SWMO. There is a 4-6 hour period of very strong large scale accent. It's crazy that this snow if it materializes will probably melt during the afternoon if it even accumulates. And yet another brutal shot of cold air comes barreling in afterwards. Then again in Belleville this morning it looked and felt like January.  South facing hill retained most of the half foot+.  This railing at the metrolink says it all.  I'm in Collinsville on my way to work. Not one HINT that only 10 miles SE there is a half foot of snow+ on the ground. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 13, 2022 8:33:42 GMT -6
The 06Z nam. Actually drops the most snow over the Southern half. It has a stronger more compact vort max even closing off for time over SWMO. There is a 4-6 hour period of very strong large scale accent. It's crazy that this snow if it materializes will probably melt during the afternoon if it even accumulates. And yet another brutal shot of cold air comes barreling in afterwards. Then again in Belleville this morning it looked and felt like January. South facing hill retained most of the half foot+. This railing at the metrolink says it all. I'm in Collinsville on my way to work. Not one HINT that only 10 miles SE there is a half foot of snow+ on the ground. I am absolutely amazed at how much snow is still on the ground…. A lesson in how fast ground temps can be overcome….. moderate snow and air temps are king |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2022 8:50:46 GMT -6
Easy to make out the snowband on satellite this AM...
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Post by weatherj on Nov 13, 2022 8:53:49 GMT -6
I have some snow left here...about an inch or so melted off yesterday, but everything is still nice and white. The jackpot was just to my west, hopefully you guys to the west and north of the metro get a good ground covering of at least an inch +.
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Post by landscaper on Nov 13, 2022 8:59:39 GMT -6
It looks like most models have the St. Louis split tomorrow night, maybe an inch or less for metro area. Areas south possibly a little more with a heavier band setting up well north /west of the metro. Basically what the NWS has forecast. But if they don’t treat the roads enough to cause issues Tuesday morning
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 13, 2022 11:21:38 GMT -6
Looking at the 12z data and I am pretty comfortable with the idea of widespread light snow event for most of our area. The track of the key features (500mb vort max and 850mb low) is generally just southwest of I-44 when you take the composite of the morning data...and this falls pretty close to previous output. Considering the speed of this forcing and thermal profiles...while applying a modified GYB technique...the swath of most significant snow will line up from Central/North central Missouri up to near Quincy and Hanibal area. I expect a solid 2-4 inches up in that region...and maybe upwards of 5 if the speed of this thing slows down a bit. I would include Pike County, MO in the 2-4 range for this sytem. Further south...in line with the track of the 500mb vort max and 850mb low center, I expect a rather short duration, but potentially quite intense burst of snow that may only last 2-3 hours at most. This will be the result of intense, but short-lived, forcing directly in advance of the above mentioned features...working in concert with what models forecast to be strong frontogenesis in the 700mb layer in advance of the system. Typically, we get some convection...or convective elements... in advance of vort max enduced precipitation...and this can sometimes mess with precip types...even in otherwise cold columns. Once the burst of more intense snow passes (again 2-3 hours max) the dry slot works in and we lose most of the cloud ice. This will lead to a region of either very fine snow, drizzle or even some light sleet that will persist through about midday Tuesday.
Accumulations for the lion's share of the viewing area will run from 1-2 inches...with two exceptions. The first, I mentioned above...Pike County MO should see 2-4 with isolated heavier amounts possible. The other exception will be in areas southeast of the 850mb/500mb vort track...Roughly along and southeast of a line from Farmington up to the Kaskaskia River (same areas that saw big suprise snows). This is not a good set-up for snow for you guys. It's hard to get much snow south of the 850mb/vort track...so I'd say less than 1" for most areas that hit the jackpot in the suprise event the other night (near and south of the Kaskaskia River).
Hopeuflly that all makes sense.
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