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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 23, 2022 13:50:53 GMT -6
Even more unusual is the fact that all the trees are peaking in color now and likely to be shedding by Halloween, with some even bare by then. Also been several years since that has happened. Usually have to wait to Veteran's Day to Turkey Day with climate change for that to happen. Something just screams epic season ahead and we desire it. Unfortunately it comes during a period of energy uncertainty and high food/fuel prices which means those less fortunate are going to potentially suffer. Getting some 2006-2007 vibes early season (remember the November 20th-Dec 1st, 2006 Ice Storm), then we switch to something similar to 2013-2014 in Mid January into March. Those are the analogs I'm going with so far.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 23, 2022 14:24:53 GMT -6
12z gem showing 2-4 inches of rain by Wednesday morning. That should help. NWS going with 2-3" totals straddling 44/55...bring it on home! |
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Post by dschreib on Oct 23, 2022 15:02:31 GMT -6
Breezy...
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Post by jeepers on Oct 23, 2022 15:15:40 GMT -6
12z gem showing 2-4 inches of rain by Wednesday morning. That should help. NWS going with 2-3" totals straddling 44/55...bring it on home! YES!!! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 23, 2022 15:39:23 GMT -6
Got my Covid Booster, and Flu shot today @ the same time. Hopefully it won't be a dozy though others have said they felt terrible the following night and day, but for now all is good. Also things still look solid for a soaking rain starting tomorrow night into very early Wednesday morning. For fun the 15Z RAP actually is very close to some wet flakes in the high elevations of the northern and eastern Ozarks Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning, though 925MB temps are just a tad too high, and the other models are even less impressive. Nevertheless this will be a classic fall system. One of the most 'October's of Old' I've seen in a while. Not just the usual extension of Summer that we've been used to as of late (last 10 years or so). I have some pretty high hopes for this Winter, and I think it could be a wild ride. Earlier this year I got my booster and flu shot at the same time. Felt kind of gross the next day but wasn’t anything that bad. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 23, 2022 16:14:14 GMT -6
if you're wanting to go to Tower Rock, I'm guessing you might want to go tomorrow. With the heavy rains expected this week, and the upcoming weather pattern change, there might not be an opportunity again. I haven't checked the river stage forecasts, but I'm guessing they don't reflect the intense rains this week anyway.
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Post by thechaser on Oct 23, 2022 20:20:09 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 23, 2022 20:33:31 GMT -6
We all know that is 33 degrees with heavy rain in January followed by a rant from Snowman99 and Chris saying he will be taking a 2 week hiatus. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 23, 2022 20:45:30 GMT -6
We all know that is 33 degrees with heavy rain in January followed by a rant from Snowman99 and Chris saying he will be taking a 2 week hiatus. That made me LOL... The 00z models would be generating heartburn if this were a winter storm. The rain dries up fast as a dry slot swings through the southeast half of the area. The NAM3km is particularly amusing. The ole' STL snow hole... except it's rain. I'm going with at least 1" of rain in most spots... with some 2+ totals on the Missouri side of the river. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 24, 2022 7:44:07 GMT -6
We all know that is 33 degrees with heavy rain in January followed by a rant from Snowman99 and Chris saying he will be taking a 2 week hiatus. Lol, maybe. But with the west trend on models, we would all be sweating bullets at this point. While Columbia would be getting another slam dunk 1-2 ft, lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 24, 2022 8:37:02 GMT -6
Looks like the 'ol NW trend is alive and well...
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Post by dschreib on Oct 24, 2022 8:42:04 GMT -6
Looks like the 'ol NW trend is alive and well... Lather, rinse, repeat...for the last eleventy hundred years. |
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 24, 2022 8:58:01 GMT -6
NAM Looks like its coming southeast again, has heaviest band along and northwest of 44. We also see that a ton where things get too amped and then come back south.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 24, 2022 10:47:34 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is converging on the first flakes of the season around November 4th-6th. heck of a cold shot coming in with some energy, 12Z GFS really running home with it, showing a dusting to an inch mainly northwest of the metro, but flurries/mix possible through the area.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2022 11:41:59 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is converging on the first flakes of the season around November 4th-6th. heck of a cold shot coming in with some energy, 12Z GFS really running home with it, showing a dusting to an inch mainly northwest of the metro, but flurries/mix possible through the area. 12z gfs is a crazy run. As you say, it has that 1st week of November winter preview. Then, it has a major hurricane in the Gulf approaching New Orleans and a Plains snowstorm. Very exciting run for weather enthusiasts. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 24, 2022 12:19:35 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is converging on the first flakes of the season around November 4th-6th. heck of a cold shot coming in with some energy, 12Z GFS really running home with it, showing a dusting to an inch mainly northwest of the metro, but flurries/mix possible through the area. 12z gfs is a crazy run. As you say, it has that 1st week of November winter preview. Then, it has a major hurricane in the Gulf approaching New Orleans and a Plains snowstorm. Very exciting run for weather enthusiasts. Canadian's CMC/GEM shows the cold blast as well, but doesn't go out far enough for it to arrive to us. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 24, 2022 12:34:19 GMT -6
I noticed the 00z GFS was building a pretty cold airmass across S/central Canada towards the first of the month with a huge trof getting carved out. Seems like the Pacific jet is becoming active as we head further into Autumn.
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Post by amstilost on Oct 24, 2022 12:50:15 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is converging on the first flakes of the season around November 4th-6th. heck of a cold shot coming in with some energy, 12Z GFS really running home with it, showing a dusting to an inch mainly northwest of the metro, but flurries/mix possible through the area. 12z gfs is a crazy run. As you say, it has that 1st week of November winter preview. Then, it has a major hurricane in the Gulf approaching New Orleans and a Plains snowstorm. Very exciting run for weather enthusiasts. I'm going to say 'Book it, Danno'. I will give a play by play while in Chicago visiting. I will report from the back of the SUV. I am getting too old for wheel wells. I have been keeping an eye on the long range. Should be fun. |
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 24, 2022 12:55:12 GMT -6
Has the Gulf Hurricane started forming in the Atlantic yet?
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 24, 2022 13:56:25 GMT -6
if you're wanting to go to Tower Rock, I'm guessing you might want to go tomorrow. With the heavy rains expected this week, and the upcoming weather pattern change, there might not be an opportunity again. I haven't checked the river stage forecasts, but I'm guessing they don't reflect the intense rains this week anyway. Checking Hydrographs, it looks like the river is only forecast to rise about a foot. |
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Post by weatherman222 on Oct 24, 2022 14:05:39 GMT -6
1 year anniversary of the tornados that struck Southeast Missouri. Crazy night that I'll never forget. A year later and there is still debris to be cleaned up.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 24, 2022 16:28:03 GMT -6
That river stage forecast may be underdone. Parts of the floor to the island already reflect some rise of the river based on what pictures ive seen on the ms river fb page
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 24, 2022 17:18:44 GMT -6
18Z GFS back to ridge city through Mid-November.  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Oct 24, 2022 17:42:10 GMT -6
Sip sip sippin on that blizzard |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Oct 24, 2022 17:46:23 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is converging on the first flakes of the season around November 4th-6th. heck of a cold shot coming in with some energy, 12Z GFS really running home with it, showing a dusting to an inch mainly northwest of the metro, but flurries/mix possible through the area. 12z gfs is a crazy run. As you say, it has that 1st week of November winter preview. Then, it has a major hurricane in the Gulf approaching New Orleans and a Plains snowstorm. Very exciting run for weather enthusiasts. 18Z gfs has a hurricane the size of Texas bringing the apocalypse to Florida. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 24, 2022 17:59:01 GMT -6
So next Tuesday starts the Christmas Season.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Oct 24, 2022 19:48:18 GMT -6
Bring the snow, bring the cold. I have my household goods, a 2 car garage, and a remote job. My desk is facing out of the window so I can watch the weather when I work!
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 24, 2022 21:09:56 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 24, 2022 22:48:48 GMT -6
18Z GFS back to ridge city through Mid-November. Ya thats why we dont look out past 7 days unless theres some degree of consistency. Early november colds dont bode well for us for the winter as a whole, as you may know. We hv had snow on veterans day and the rest of winter was a rock. Lets bottle that cold up a little longer and ease into it...as if we had a choice. Glad to see the rain though. I saw a neighbor had their sprinkler going today. I guess they will mow for some time. I gave up on watering with the freeze, but i wish more grass came up. One more mow for me, but after halloween. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Oct 25, 2022 6:27:14 GMT -6
.08 so far, just killing it .....
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