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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 20, 2022 13:17:19 GMT -6
What's it showing for tropical activity? I don't know why I said tropical...I was referring to the cut off energy offshore I've been watching the tropics closely as we are heading down for the final week of the fishing rodeo in Destin. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 20, 2022 14:22:04 GMT -6
In case you are wondering... the term "Indian Summer" is no more. It has been switched to "second summer" No Comment on that one. |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Oct 20, 2022 16:05:51 GMT -6
 I'll just leave this here... 🌪 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 20, 2022 17:22:26 GMT -6
do you read posts before you comment? lol
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Post by cardsnweather on Oct 20, 2022 20:06:21 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 20, 2022 20:28:10 GMT -6
Channel 2 did a story on it last night. They have a sign posted that it's not legal to climb the tower. But they showed people climbing it. And some dope parked his car too close to the railroad tracks and a train hit it |
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 20, 2022 20:32:06 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 21, 2022 0:32:22 GMT -6
Compact little bowling ball on the EURO...would do some work around those parts with some colder air.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 21, 2022 3:49:31 GMT -6
Compact little bowling ball on the EURO...would do some work around those parts with some colder air. Sure would be nice if this pattern reemerges during the cold season... |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 21, 2022 8:19:30 GMT -6
Models are all over the place...not surprising though with a wholesale pattern change taking place. I wouldn't hold my breath for any signficant rainfall from the setup next week. There could be some storms around on Monday though. I agree. GFS has Roslyn making landfall at hour 90. But HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all show it offshore and keeping its warm core structure for much longer. HMON is the quickest with landfall and disintegration at hour 108, but HWRF and HAFS still have it offshore and quite intense at hour 126. I think there is a good chance Roslyn mostly misses the phase with the trough. If that is the case then we'll not only see less rain, but the possibility of windy conditions extending into Monday as well. Let's see what the 12Z Euro has to say. The tide is shifting. The hurricane models are still a bit more delayed with the approach of Rosyln, but not by much and in the end it doesn't really matter. There is a significant plume of moisture that is getting sucked into the subtropical jet, which is already primed from the Pacific cutoff low, and ultimately it all gets injected ahead of the approaching trough. Right now there seems to be a broad consensus that the MO/AR/OK/KS border area is the most likely spot for heavy rains. The GEFS and EPS both suggest 0.5-1.0" for the metro area. The UKMET is the most aggressive with QPF pushing 9"+ in southwest MO and 2-3" for the metro area. The GFS and Euro both were showing has 2-3" north of I-44 with generally less to the south. However, the 6Z Euro showed a pretty significant shift southeast.  |
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 21, 2022 8:59:16 GMT -6
Yay, we sure need the rain! Esp the Misssisippi for commerce! And improve the drought situation! Sure hope it’s enough to help!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 21, 2022 13:14:32 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 21, 2022 13:20:10 GMT -6
RadarScope now has an archive going back 27 years for some sites. That’s includes KLSX. I went back and looked at the EF4 that struck lambert on 4/22/11. Only issue is the velocity isn’t property dealiased.  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 21, 2022 13:33:52 GMT -6
RadarScope now has an archive going back 27 years for some sites. That’s includes KLSX. I went back and looked at the EF4 that struck lambert on 4/22/11. Only issue is the velocity isn’t property dealiased. Wow that's cool! |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Oct 21, 2022 14:14:00 GMT -6
do you read posts before you comment? lol not yours... Your way to negative for me to care 🤷 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 21, 2022 14:46:27 GMT -6
do you read posts before you comment? lol not yours... Your way to negative for me to care 🤷 lmao, wasn't just mine. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 21, 2022 15:49:04 GMT -6
Like the tweet says, I would take this with a grain of salt. Interesting nonetheless
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 21, 2022 18:06:55 GMT -6
RadarScope now has an archive going back 27 years for some sites. That’s includes KLSX. I went back and looked at the EF4 that struck lambert on 4/22/11. Only issue is the velocity isn’t property dealiased. Wow that's cool! Is this pro version only? Cant find it. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 21, 2022 19:05:38 GMT -6
This forecast is ALMOST enough to get me to fly to Yellowstone for $2k... ALMOST!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 21, 2022 19:18:49 GMT -6
Is this pro version only? Cant find it. Ya you need Pro tier 2 to view archived data |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 22, 2022 8:43:02 GMT -6
Models have trended towards a much wetter setup Mon PM into Tues with the low taking a favorable track for persistent and focused rainfall across the region. The EC and GEM are both bullish, showing potential for several inches.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 22, 2022 9:19:55 GMT -6
If only it was December, we'd be hopping for a thump of heavy wet snow. Hopefully a trend setter?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 22, 2022 11:02:21 GMT -6
This forecast is ALMOST enough to get me to fly to Yellowstone for $2k... ALMOST! Jackson has a number of live streams on YouTube. Not quite as good as being there but it's warmer and saves the twn grand. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 22, 2022 11:02:37 GMT -6
Hopping, hoping, whatever, we'd all have 34 and rain lol
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Post by REB on Oct 22, 2022 11:20:05 GMT -6
This forecast is ALMOST enough to get me to fly to Yellowstone for $2k... ALMOST! One of my special places in the winter. Haven’t been able to get there since Covid reared it’s ugly head . |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 22, 2022 17:08:48 GMT -6
What is interesting is that despite the drought we are still well above normal in precipitation.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 22, 2022 18:36:45 GMT -6
Teton Pass just west of the Grand Tetons Saturday evening.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 22, 2022 21:28:40 GMT -6
What is interesting is that despite the drought we are still well above normal in precipitation. Amazing what one highly anomalous heavy rain event can do to skew the data. The only thing worse than no data is incomplete data (in this case contextual data). |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 23, 2022 11:38:35 GMT -6
12z gem showing 2-4 inches of rain by Wednesday morning.
That should help.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 23, 2022 13:45:27 GMT -6
Got my Covid Booster, and Flu shot today @ the same time. Hopefully it won't be a dozy though others have said they felt terrible the following night and day, but for now all is good. Also things still look solid for a soaking rain starting tomorrow night into very early Wednesday morning. For fun the 15Z RAP actually is very close to some wet flakes in the high elevations of the northern and eastern Ozarks Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning, though 925MB temps are just a tad too high, and the other models are even less impressive. Nevertheless this will be a classic fall system. One of the most 'October's of Old' I've seen in a while. Not just the usual extension of Summer that we've been used to as of late (last 10 years or so). I have some pretty high hopes for this Winter, and I think it could be a wild ride.
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