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Post by jmg378s on Sept 27, 2022 18:25:20 GMT -6
Hmm, recon found lowering pressures and radar shows eye wall replacement that seems to be progressing quickly. Many 18z cycle models showing continued strengthening... they are seeing a favorable environment up to landfall that is. Not good.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 27, 2022 18:37:03 GMT -6
Hmm, recon found lowering pressures and radar shows eye wall replacement that seems to be progressing quickly. Many 18z cycle models showing continued strengthening... they are seeing a favorable environment up to landfall that is. Not good. Upwelling may be the biggest hindrance to intensification at this point...forward motion looks to have slowed considerably. |
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Post by REB on Sept 27, 2022 20:32:11 GMT -6
Chris, your explanations and graphics are the BEST!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 27, 2022 21:18:31 GMT -6
Looks like Ian is reaching peak strength. Might see it strengthen a bit more before landfall tomorrow. It’s looking all but certain it will cross Florida and make a second landfall in GA/SC, albeit in a much weaker state.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 27, 2022 23:09:00 GMT -6
The worst case scenario we talked about for Tampa Bay yesterday is shaping up for Fort Myers/Charlotte Harbor. The eye wall replacement appears to be about done and the larger eye is well organized and appears to be slowly contracting right now. As BRTN alluded to, the forward motion has slowed to a crawl and this will only build up the water levels more along the coast... with the eye crossing coast... and possibly going right up the gut of Charlotte harbor. My nephew's inlaws live in the mandatory evacuation zone...but well off the coast. Their road flooded in Irma...which passed to their east. This will go to their west and I fear it will be much worse.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 28, 2022 1:19:03 GMT -6
My wife's cousin waited too long to evaluate in Florida. They are in a horrible spot!! Really concerned for their safety today. With the shallow water all along the west coast of Florida. Not good!!!!  |
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Raja72
Weather Weenie
Waterloo, IL
Posts: 47 
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Post by Raja72 on Sept 28, 2022 1:33:27 GMT -6
My wife's cousin waited too long to evaluate in Florida. They are in a horrible spot!! Really concerned for their safety tomorrow. With the shallow water all along the west coast of Florida. Not good!!!! Praying for your wife’s family. My brother lives 5 miles east of the Caloosahatchee River in Fort Myers and my parents live in Estero, inland, but in the mandatory evacuation zone. None of them were able to evacuate. I am worried sick about all of them right now. It seems that the track might put them in a similar bad spot. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 28, 2022 3:19:11 GMT -6
My wife's cousin waited too long to evaluate in Florida. They are in a horrible spot!! Really concerned for their safety tomorrow. With the shallow water all along the west coast of Florida. Not good!!!! Praying for your wife’s family. My brother lives 5 miles east of the Caloosahatchee River in Fort Myers and my parents live in Estero, inland, but in the mandatory evacuation zone. None of them were able to evacuate. I am worried sick about all of them right now. It seems that the track might put them in a similar bad spot. Same to your brother. ❤️ |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 28, 2022 4:13:38 GMT -6
Ian now a CAT 4 storm! Winds up near 140mph.   |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 28, 2022 4:59:41 GMT -6
Ian now closing in on CAT 5 intensity! Winds up to 155mph.   |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 28, 2022 5:40:51 GMT -6
Incredible explosive intensification.
The saving grace now is models are giving this thing some forward speed. Should be a relatively quick hit for areas seeing the storm at its peak.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 28, 2022 5:41:05 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 28, 2022 5:43:18 GMT -6
Getting some areas at 160+ on Radarscope...
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 28, 2022 6:14:21 GMT -6
I have a niece and nephew that live in Fort Meyers , they evacuated to LaBelle about 30 miles inland….. at this point I’m not sure it’s far enough away! These poor kids just lost their father ( my nephew) in April …. Im not sure how much more they can take ….prayers for everyone in the path of this monster
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 28, 2022 6:17:15 GMT -6
Hard to see but spotty light frost in st.peters this morning. There is some light rooftop frost in the picture. Some of the earliest I have scene this far south. On other note prayers for Florida.  |
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Post by jeepers on Sept 28, 2022 6:36:08 GMT -6
This is just bad. Prayers for everyone.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 28, 2022 7:53:52 GMT -6
Hurricane Hunters took a big loss of elevation this morning in the turbulence. Plane dropped 700 feet. Holy cow.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 28, 2022 8:04:02 GMT -6
Hurricane Hunters took a big loss of elevation this morning in the turbulence. Plane dropped 700 feet. Holy cow. Read that too! Wow |
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Post by jeepers on Sept 28, 2022 8:11:01 GMT -6
That’ll rattle their cage a bit, no matter how professional they are.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 28, 2022 8:52:53 GMT -6
Ian is a monster!
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 28, 2022 9:08:42 GMT -6
There isn't a recon aircraft even remotely close to Ian right now. They're both over there sampling the atmosphere in Houston and New Orleans. WTF?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 28, 2022 9:16:03 GMT -6
Love him or hate him, Reed is giving us all a front line look on his live stream.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 28, 2022 9:26:07 GMT -6
There isn't a recon aircraft even remotely close to Ian right now. They're both over there sampling the atmosphere in Houston and New Orleans. WTF? I believe one just took off. There is a KHOU met and photojournalist on board. Chita Craft. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 28, 2022 9:32:38 GMT -6
There isn't a recon aircraft even remotely close to Ian right now. They're both over there sampling the atmosphere in Houston and New Orleans. WTF? Guessing they are trying to button up the track and intensity forecast as Ian re-emerges into the SW Atlantic? Radar data is showing Ian near CAT5 strength with a worst-case scenario track for extreme surge into Charlotte Harbor...yikes |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 28, 2022 9:36:03 GMT -6
cancelling end of October? wow. I have friends and family travelling from Charleston to Savannah today, then fly back from Savannah on Saturday to Baltimore. They thought about driving back to Charleston on Saturday to catch their flight, something I would discourage. I would advise them to stay put in Savannah bc with all the rain and tropical force winds, you just don't want to travel any coastal highway. Plus, they would have been travelling parallel to the projected weakening system. As it turns out, the projected path has shifted a bit in this morning's nhc update, putting Savannah in a more direct path of the tropical storm, particularly tybee and wilmington islands. I think it's better though, bc if the path stays put, they should be to the left of the center of the tropical storm, but had they tried to take the road trip, it might have actually been worse for them. Best to wait it out and drink a cold beverage or 6. I might opt for something less cold though - like a few scotches. Guessing the airports will be chaos, so likely their return plans will be delayed a day or two. I know attention is on the gulf side right now, and the atlantic pales in comparison, but with traveling friends who are from the midwest, my attention is on the atlantic side. Thoughts on my advice anyone?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 28, 2022 9:36:14 GMT -6
There isn't a recon aircraft even remotely close to Ian right now. They're both over there sampling the atmosphere in Houston and New Orleans. WTF? Might not be safe to fly into it. I read this morning a recon flight got jostled some 700 feet vertically and that combined with the intense eye wall lightning might make it to risky to fly into. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 28, 2022 9:44:00 GMT -6
There isn't a recon aircraft even remotely close to Ian right now. They're both over there sampling the atmosphere in Houston and New Orleans. WTF? Might not be safe to fly into it. I read this morning a recon flight got jostled some 700 feet vertically and that combined with the intense eye wall lightning might make it to risky to fly into. years ago I worked with a guy who flew recons into hurricanes back in his day. For some reason, we've had several former military meteorologists come through our team as data modelers. They seem to make great data modelers. At any rate, he could tell countless stories about his experiences. I would imagine he'd say, "meh!" about the 700 vertical jostling. It's been years since he's retired from our firm, so I don't know if he's still around. |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 28, 2022 9:46:01 GMT -6
Numerous 200+ mph bins at 9000 ft showing up the KTBW radar now. I would be surprised if Ian weren't a category 5 already.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 28, 2022 9:48:24 GMT -6
and now, as I speak, the latest update takes the path across Hilton Head island
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 28, 2022 9:51:20 GMT -6
Might not be safe to fly into it. I read this morning a recon flight got jostled some 700 feet vertically and that combined with the intense eye wall lightning might make it to risky to fly into. years ago I worked with a guy who flew recons into hurricanes back in his day. For some reason, we've had several former military meteorologists come through our team as data modelers. They seem to make great data modelers. At any rate, he could tell countless stories about his experiences. I would imagine he'd say, "meh!" about the 700 vertical jostling. It's been years since he's retired from our firm, so I don't know if he's still around. Dave Malkoff with TWC was on the flight. They lost over 1000 feet with the nose angled 15 deg up. |
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