|
|
Post by jeepers on Dec 18, 2022 22:04:18 GMT -6
uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
|
|
|
|
Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 22:04:23 GMT -6
It would not surprise me to be too far west for the eastern cwa, but too far west for the metro and western cwa as well ? Geez...lol. If so, good call on that possibility wsc.
|
|
|
|
Post by stegenwx on Dec 18, 2022 22:05:53 GMT -6
Iowa / Northern MO gets hammered. Lock that in. The usual outcome
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 22:06:23 GMT -6
Ends up ok but definitely not as good as earlier
|
|
|
|
Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 22:09:07 GMT -6
Could be a very early trend starter or a correction too far west...will remain to be seen.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 22:09:36 GMT -6
It would not surprise me to be too far west for the eastern cwa, but too far west for the metro and western cwa as well ? Geez...lol. If so, good call on that possibility wsc. There were gfs ensemble members showing this exact outcome. It’s in the envelope of possibilities, but it’ll be more important to see how much if any shift occurs with the 00z gfs ensembles. Anytime you have bombogenesis, you can have sharp northwest shifts. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 22:09:51 GMT -6
Who knows it could shift right back south by tomorrow
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 22:10:47 GMT -6
00z ggem will not cut too far northwest.
Deep breaths everyone. It looks solid.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 22:13:16 GMT -6
I’ll put money on majority of ensemble members being east of OP.
We are dealing with with some of the strongest blocking I’ve seen. I don’t buy the path the GFS shows there unless it strengthens even more. You can see the pushback it gets as it gets into Missouri. Key is going to be how far can it dig before pivoting.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 22:13:21 GMT -6
The Canadian is rock steady... and as I said earlier... it's a nice compromise between the earlier runs of Euro and the GFS.
I am confident that GFS is cranked up way too much too quickly.
But I could be wrong lol.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 18, 2022 22:14:16 GMT -6
Cutters this time of year are more typical. Cutters depicted on models this far out gives us more possibility, given that strong high, to put St. Louis on the high impact. jmo. Could be a sign that the cold air is dumping further west, which should help our cause.
|
|
weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
|
Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Dec 18, 2022 22:14:47 GMT -6
Oh man the 00Z CMC looks really good at 84hrs.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 22:16:40 GMT -6
I don't know what they've done to the GEM recently, but it's been impressive to say the least.
Once it locks onto a solution, it hardly wavers.
|
|
weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436
|
Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Dec 18, 2022 22:18:05 GMT -6
That Canadian run seems like a realistic outcome of what could happen IMO
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 22:19:20 GMT -6
New Gfs is rocky. Toss it out unless it comes back with better solution at 4 AM
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 22:19:47 GMT -6
Canadian is a full-out blizzard.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 18, 2022 22:20:45 GMT -6
Surface high location on the 00z GFS and 00z CMC is fairly similar.
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 18, 2022 22:22:24 GMT -6
Please disregard the GFS
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 18, 2022 22:23:22 GMT -6
Though it still gives us 6+"
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 18, 2022 22:23:58 GMT -6
As someone mentioned, I think now will start the correction back east, and I am betting it may hone in on St. Louis being closer to ground 0. I think the 12Z model on Monday could reflect that.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 22:26:06 GMT -6
Though it still gives us 6+" and like 50+ mph gust lol |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 22:31:11 GMT -6
Notable shift west (actually very sizable) on the 00z gfs ensembles.
That makes it a little more real, but still sitting in a great spot.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 18, 2022 22:32:07 GMT -6
gotta love the CMC sneaking in a nice round of WAA ZR up 44 in MO and along I-70 in IL
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 22:32:43 GMT -6
It would not surprise me to be too far west for the eastern cwa, but too far west for the metro and western cwa as well ? Geez...lol. If so, good call on that possibility wsc. There were gfs ensemble members showing this exact outcome. It’s in the envelope of possibilities, but it’ll be more important to see how much if any shift occurs with the 00z gfs ensembles. Anytime you have bombogenesis, you can have sharp northwest shifts. The power of the ensembles is that history has proven that operational models gradually shift toward the ensemble means. Not always...but usually. A weakness of ensembles is that they can smooth out extremes that may better describe the ultimate outcome. For instance... the ensemble mean may give you a really good idea of where the heavy snow band for a system ends up. But it waters down the max totals. If you have 10 models that all output 12 inches of snow...but they all place that band in slightly different areas. So you may get the average track... but you water down the average amount of snow. The average amount of snow in the band should be 10 inches. But instead, it held down because of the differences in placement. I hope that makes sense... it does in my brain. But I'm tired and have a cold...so who knows. |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 18, 2022 22:32:46 GMT -6
Also, the 00z GEFS is further west than 18z GEFS. Stronger ESE ridge on 00z.
Crazy to see a 1066-7 mb surface high modeled. As coz said, that would be a record!
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 18, 2022 22:33:02 GMT -6
we were just a hair too far west in earlier models, now we are a bit too far east. Really thinking that the possibility is there that we could be right on the pinpoint before it's said and done. Regardless as coz said, we stand to get a high impact storm in any scenario presented so far.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2022 22:40:45 GMT -6
GEFS low locations I added the operationals low (blue) in for comparison It's definitely on the western side of the envelope  |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 22:43:43 GMT -6
I will say the max band for the gfs ensemble mean is now over 12 inches which speaks to the ridiculousness of this storm.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 22:46:09 GMT -6
GEFS mean looks like 6-9” in the metro more north
|
|
|
|
Post by TK on Dec 18, 2022 22:47:27 GMT -6
To me it appears the GFS is struggling the most with this storm - So we can take that with a grain of salt? - Am I wrong?
|
|
