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Post by landscaper on Dec 18, 2022 22:47:59 GMT -6
Ukie still a turd
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 22:52:24 GMT -6
To me it appears the GFS is struggling the most with this storm - So we can take that with a grain of salt? - Am I wrong? You should use caution throwing out data you don’t like. But yes, it has waffled from a coastal storm to the most extreme cutter. So, it deserves some extra scrutiny. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 18, 2022 22:53:13 GMT -6
Thank goodness we have human beings to make sense of all the models to give us real forecasts. I am definitely counting on Chris with his voice of reason on all the model differences. Still looks like a high impact weather event to me.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Dec 18, 2022 22:53:38 GMT -6
Was the dtirm sampled today and is that maybe why the adjustment to the west
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 22:54:03 GMT -6
Ukmet just refuses to join the party. It wouldn’t be as fun if every model showed a perfect outcome for 20 straight runs though, would it? |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 18, 2022 22:56:28 GMT -6
It looks like the GEFS total positive snowfall depth change ticked up on the NW and ticked down slightly on the SE side of the metro. We're still 84-120 hours from start-finish on this event. Remember, it is not uncommon for there to be curveballs throw out by models within this timeframe and the sword cuts both ways.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 18, 2022 23:02:54 GMT -6
Nope it's over
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 23:06:10 GMT -6
Relative to all monster snowfall makers for sure. But it still has an incredible temp drop (42 to 4) in 6 hours.... and 1-4 inches across the metro.. more north... quick drop off to the south. I keep falling back on the NWS goal post description for the extreme solutions. We've seen maybe both extremes in that range in the operational models over the past couple of runs. I wish I could stay up for the Euro... and maybe I'll get up and check it. We'll see. Quick summary of my thoughts...and it's been a while since I've said this... STEADY AS SHE GOES! I know folks want to get all wrapped up by the mood swings of the models and snowfall numbers. Don't fall into that trap (I almost did) and remember the type of storm we are dealing with... it's a super charged clipper aloft that is trying to undergo a complex transition and organization as it cross the Bistate area. It does not have a direct link to the GOM... which is still a concern and potential limiting factor for snowfall amounts IMO. In the past, I thought a blend of the Euro and GEM made good meteorological sense. I can't speak to the new Euro since I wont see it. But what I've seen from the GEM tonight still leads me to the idea. Snow begins sometime Thursday...it may start as rain or a mix Thursday morning with some bonus WAA forcing ahead of the arctic front... but I still like the idea of the main event being Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Accumulating snow still looks likely for most of the area...although it's getting a little more questionable over our far southeastern tier of counties...but we'll see. The combination of strong wind gusts, rapidly falling temps and snow/blowing snow will make for a very dangerous winter weather event. As I have said over and over and over again... the focus needs to be more on the impact and less on specific forecast accumulations. Even if the trend is towards the lower accumulations, the combined effects of the wind and extreme temperatures will make this a significant weather event. More snow will only make really bad even worse. The response is the same. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 18, 2022 23:07:13 GMT -6
It's not over until we see the AFD verbiage: "what a difference a day makes in the models". A common phrase I recall from 15 to 20 years ago...more than once. Fingers crossed. Also, Fish used to get on here and say "singing in the rain". I'm pretty certain, that will not be the case. But in the unlikely situation that either of those phrases are used, just remember, we are just getting started. The stepdown to this winter is reminiscent to my teenage years. I think this winter overall will be very different than what we've seen. JMO.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 23:08:57 GMT -6
To me it appears the GFS is struggling the most with this storm - So we can take that with a grain of salt? - Am I wrong? You should use caution throwing out data you don’t like. But yes, it has waffled from a coastal storm to the most extreme cutter. So, it deserves some extra scrutiny. For sure! Even if that run turns out to be wrong, there may be something in that run that helps unlock the forecast puzzle for you. We can't through out a "bad" GFS run anymore than we can throw out one of the last two "beefy" models. |
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Dec 18, 2022 23:11:48 GMT -6
weather.cod.edu has a nice feature where you can look at any product (say the 250mb winds on the GFS) for a given time and then toggle between each run of the model for that time so you can see trends. The 00z GFS has the 250mb trough a smidge farther west and a smidge more negatively tilted... and then it makes the cyclone much stronger. Or atleast thats what it looks like at first appearances.
After much closer inspection, the trough is only marginally deeper at 250mb than the previous runs. However, it has several more closed isoheights so it appears much stronger. So what gives? Making North America as my domain instead of the CONUS I found that the upper low over the Hudson Bay is quite a bit weaker than previous runs. My guess is that the increased heights over the northern US and southern Canada allow the downstream ridge to amplify a bit which, with the already highly amplified pattern, causes the trough to cut off and for the ridge to fold over the developing closed low. With previous runs, the stronger Hudson Bay upper low slowed the trough from going as strongly negatively tilted, which kept the surface-850mb lows from occluding as quickly, which kept the low farther south and for it to have more time to mature.
tldr, the weaker the Hudson Bay low, the quicker this trough will become strongly negatively tilted, meaning the surface low will more quickly occlude and gain latitude.
tldr v2.0, what everyone else has been saying
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 23:11:51 GMT -6
To me it appears the GFS is struggling the most with this storm - So we can take that with a grain of salt? - Am I wrong? You should use caution throwing out data you don’t like. But yes, it has waffled from a coastal storm to the most extreme cutter. So, it deserves some extra scrutiny. As I re-read this... I don't think the suggestion is throw it out... but take with a grain of salt? Maybe... after a thorough inspection. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 18, 2022 23:22:26 GMT -6
With 40-45 mph gusts and single digits, it’s going to be very hard to tell the difference between 6” and 10”. Biggest story is the cold, snow and wind combo + timing being that it’s 48 hours before Christmas.
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Post by TK on Dec 18, 2022 23:23:56 GMT -6
You should use caution throwing out data you don’t like. But yes, it has waffled from a coastal storm to the most extreme cutter. So, it deserves some extra scrutiny. As I re-read this... I don't think the suggestion is throw it out... but take with a grain of salt? Maybe... after a thorough inspection. Thanks Chris - I'm not saying throw it out but perhaps the GFS does not quite have a solid handle compared to other models- just an observation. |
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Dec 18, 2022 23:24:31 GMT -6
My first instinct, without looking at any other model, is to do just this. The GFS significantly weakened the upper low over the Hudson Bay which allowed for the surface low to occlude so quickly. Likely this is an outlier. There is a chance it is on to something, but without more data, I dont believe that is the case. I need to witness a 2ft snowstorm in my life and I am definitely on the wishcasting bandwagon that this one will do the trick 🙃 |
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Post by TK on Dec 18, 2022 23:32:38 GMT -6
I have been looking in the archives but cannot find it...I know the viewers are growing more and more each day with obvious interest. Can anyone post in Central time when each specific model come out? I think this would help the lurkers know when to tune in for the big model run comments from you all...Just my thoughts...Tks guys...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2022 23:36:18 GMT -6
As I re-read this... I don't think the suggestion is throw it out... but take with a grain of salt? Maybe... after a thorough inspection. Thanks Chris - I'm not saying throw it out but perhaps the GFS does not quite have a solid handle compared to other models- just an observation. That is a fair first assessment.. but apears to be a poor handle at 00z can sudenly turn into the accepted forecast if it keeps showing up in later runs. Which I think is what we are all getting out. It is an outlier, and can be treated as such for now. |
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Post by thechaser on Dec 18, 2022 23:36:21 GMT -6
I have been looking in the archives but cannot find it...I know the viewers are growing more and more each day with obvious interest. Can anyone post in Central time when each specific model come out? I think this would help the lurkers know when to tune in for the big model run comments from you all...Just my thoughts...Tks guys... Model schedule is at the bottom if you scroll a bit |
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Post by TK on Dec 19, 2022 0:02:56 GMT -6
I have been looking in the archives but cannot find it...I know the viewers are growing more and more each day with obvious interest. Can anyone post in Central time when each specific model come out? I think this would help the lurkers know when to tune in for the big model run comments from you all...Just my thoughts...Tks guys... Model schedule is at the bottom if you scroll a bit Tks Chaser |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 0:22:06 GMT -6
The Canadian and Euro are almost spitting images of each other.
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Post by thechaser on Dec 19, 2022 0:23:57 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 0:25:17 GMT -6
This is going to be a “super front” The temp drop and wind is going to be insane |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 19, 2022 0:29:04 GMT -6
The common theme that I see from the GFS, Ukie, and Euro is a more northward placement of the 850mb low, north of STL. Someone PLEASE point out my error.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 19, 2022 2:56:45 GMT -6
Man it looks like I missed alot of great babble yesterday. Just getting ready to get off of 3-12 hr days. Now I'll be off for 3 weeks. Yuppie. So I'll definitely be joining the weather babble for this upcoming storm potential.
I had to read through alot of discussion from you guys. Lol
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 3:54:54 GMT -6
6z is even further west.
Edit:brings low through Missouri in similar spot but is way faster. Some intense, heavy backside snow but not for long. Need a decent shift east for anything close to warning level snow on GFS.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 4:02:19 GMT -6
One trend that will need to be watched closely is that recent model
runs have been coming in warmer and warmer ahead of the cold front
on Thursday, especially in the slower GEFS solutions. Our northern
CWA is still expected to remain comfortably below freezing through
the event, but it`s looking increasingly likely that the rest of
the CWA, including the St. Louis metro, may push toward or just
above freezing on Thursday. This will obviously have implications
on snowfall totals and leads to further uncertainty in the forecast.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 4:12:57 GMT -6
GFS with a pretty notable shift west...it remains the outlier in that regard. A blend of it and the EC, which as Chris and other said is close to the GEM still gives us a blizzard. The GFS buries IL as it stalls out and deeply occludes. At ~4 days out there's still plenty of room for small shifts in the track and snowfall amounts, so don't be alarmed. The forecast of several inches of snow, near-blizzard conditions and dangerous cold still stands.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 5:40:36 GMT -6
6z Icon hammers the area with significant snow and blizzard conditions.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 6:06:05 GMT -6
00z GEFS mean still looks solid for the region with several inches in the Metro...more to the north. 850mb low tracks overhead, which isn't ideal and puts us close to the dry slot. The GFS has the trof becoming negatively tilted and closing off just a bit too soon/west....a few hours later and it would bury us.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 6:26:57 GMT -6
But the 6z GEFS took a huge shift north west. We had been in th 6-8” range for several runs now we’re down to the 2-4” range.
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