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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 6:27:08 GMT -6
But the 6z GEFS took a huge shift north west. We had been in th 6-8” range for several runs now we’re down to the 2-4” range.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 6:30:28 GMT -6
6z NAM nearly identical to GFS has the low north west of STL at 84h with rain an 38. Would probably end up with backside snow, hopefully there two amped up to quickly causing them to eject our faster further northwest. I could see the GFS start to come in weaker and further south over time.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 6:38:15 GMT -6
The GFS is definitely the amplified outlier...a few hour delay in the bombogenesis would make a signficant difference in track. One issue is that the system quickly becomes nearly stacked...the 700mb low tracks from KC to STL but the SLP is tucked in and nearly tracks overhead. If that's the case...the typical GYB method may not work ideally here.
The large-scale pattern still argues for this to dig strongly into the S Plains...models have a 180-200kt jetstreak aimed into N/central TX that puts us squarely in the favorable LER dynamics. It seems like the GFS may be lifting it northward a bit too quickly to me looking at this upstairs.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 6:41:12 GMT -6
6z euro is fantastic. It’s a lot quicker and kind of flies through but the track is perfect.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 6:57:52 GMT -6
6z euro is fantastic. It’s a lot quicker and kind of flies through but the track is perfect. It's still way north with the mid-level low though...wouldn't get much if any wrap around. Still a ton to sort out here... |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 6:58:46 GMT -6
6z euro is fantastic. It’s a lot quicker and kind of flies through but the track is perfect. It's still way north with the mid-level low though...wouldn't get much if any wrap around. Still a ton to sort out here... Yea, most of my fantastic wording was just being thrilled the 850 wasn’t going through Central MO. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 7:10:43 GMT -6
Personally im waiting until the 12z models. If the west/northwest trend continues then...
But it feels like a further south then east track is a plausible scenario.
Afd really gets into a pretty detailed scenario but bottom line we all still get cold, blustery, and snowfall.
Imo, the forecasted accum numbers that are most likely outcome, will likely mislead the publics perception and undermine the seriousness of the overall message of how dangerous this storm could be.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 7:16:31 GMT -6
The verbiage used up north where the winterstorm watches are in effect are just pure deep winter. Feels like we havent seen anything like this kind of cyclone in years.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 7:20:16 GMT -6
The classic GYB isnt going to work with southeastward digging upper system. Still those 850/700 tracks are important...but so is the lift being generated along the slope of the artic front... and the jet dynamics. If there is such a tthing... this is a classic hybrid.
The amount of jet energy still in the backside of the trough argues for continued digging to the southeast. I still really like the blend of Euro and GEM. The 06z RGEM is a carbon copy of the GEM at 84hrs...and the NAM looks somewhat similar. Granted, it's hars to give too much weight to 84 NAM and RGEM output... but it is noteable.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 7:39:50 GMT -6
This is the worst time of day. No new data to pick apart.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 7:52:16 GMT -6
Buckle your seatbelts.
NAM is off
Should get a good look at SREF plumes today as well.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 7:55:01 GMT -6
Another thing im keeping in mind, with the high winds, feels like that could result in dendrites being picked apart, presenting as lower snow totals. Is that the case here?
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 8:03:37 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 8:07:32 GMT -6
Another thing im keeping in mind, with the high winds, feels like that could result in dendrites being picked apart, presenting as lower snow totals. Is that the case here? Chris had mentioned that earlier and I agree. It'll still be powdery, but maybe not fluff. Either way, it will readily blow around and drift. |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 19, 2022 8:10:10 GMT -6
It seems like the NWS is trying to not sound the alarm too quick? Still talking minor to moderate impacts?
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 19, 2022 8:11:50 GMT -6
Looking at last the Euro... it seems way too quick at scouring out the cold air in the eastern/Southeastern US...back into the Ohio Valley. The GEM actually is actually a reasonable compromise in that regard. It also shows a plausible compromise with the evolution of the surface low. The GFS just looks too fast wrapping that up while the Euro puts all of its marbles in the north and only develops a modest series of waves that advance along the arctic front. So... going with the KISS principle (keep it super simple) I like something akin to the GEM as a compromise right now. That’s not what KISS stands for Chris… |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 19, 2022 8:21:33 GMT -6
There was a very significant drop in the 12Z NBM snowfall. The metro area is now at 3-4" through Saturday morning. The GEFS, GEPS, and EPS all agree that the 850 mb low track will track north of St. Louis placing us in a less favorable position for snow. However, they also agree that we will likely get some snow out of this and with temperatures crashing the odds of a white Christmas are decent.  |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 19, 2022 8:22:31 GMT -6
It seems like the NWS is trying to not sound the alarm too quick? Still talking minor to moderate impacts? NWS STL along with the TV market has had some weather events over the last decade-15 years that has caused them pause. You have to remember the approach is much better to ramp up as needed instead of sensationalizing and then eating crow as the event draws near. NWS has the unique responsibility to earn and keep the public trust so that their warnings are heeded when needed. All of that said, I have to agree with their messaging at this time. The current model agreement warrants minor to moderate impacts. They can’t match their messaging to each run of a model, especially when there is not agreement outside of cold, wind, and some snow. |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Dec 19, 2022 8:24:01 GMT -6
So... going with the KISS principle (keep it super simple) I like something akin to the GEM as a compromise right now. That’s not what KISS stands for Chris… Lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 8:24:27 GMT -6
This is far from a minor to moderate impact event...
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 8:25:51 GMT -6
Another thing im keeping in mind, with the high winds, feels like that could result in dendrites being picked apart, presenting as lower snow totals. Is that the case here? Chris had mentioned that earlier and I agree. It'll still be powdery, but maybe not fluff. Either way, it will readily blow around and drift. Ah i mustve missed that. Agree with the powdery statement, and the readily blowing around thing. Also, I typically dont give the GEM time of day. In the past, it usually paints more snow as an outlier, but chris says it looks like a reasonable compromise, so i may have to check it out later today. Rt now, im kind of thinking moderate impact, mainly due to those rapidly falling temps and howling winds. But i can certainly see how roads conditions can be severely compromised in this circumstance. The page extension by my house is usually the worst. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 19, 2022 8:32:34 GMT -6
this is a high impact event, even if we get 1 inch
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 8:36:57 GMT -6
There were several times where that 1/4/2014 storm should a decrease in snow amounts leading up to event only to come back just as strong if not stronger 2-3 days before.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 8:37:34 GMT -6
this is a high impact event, even if we get 1 inch I try to stay fairly level headed but I will be pretty heated if we get one inch.  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 8:38:44 GMT -6
NAM is digging and a bit further east than GFS at same time.
Through 75 they are fairly similar. Nam maybe 50-75 miles further east.
And then proceeds to catapult due N. Boo.
Doesn't really strengthen as it moves through area either which would argue for a further east placement and not a borderline negative tilt.
Does have some solid backside snow though.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 8:43:22 GMT -6
NAM not good
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 8:45:41 GMT -6
It's not bad. It would drop 2-4 if not 3-6 inches on the backside. Would be 4-6 hours of blizzard conditions Thursday evening. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 8:45:47 GMT -6
I would be more concerned if the nam at 84 hours showed our dream scenario.
It’s like the gfs at hour 272.
And it still shows a high impact event with a couple inches of snow.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 8:45:54 GMT -6
Yes but there is a Massive difference from 1” of wind blown snow to 8” + of wind blown snow with drifts . It’s going to be nasty to travel and be outside but 1” of snow is very manageable vs. 6+” of snow . Let’s not act like it’s close to the same
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 19, 2022 8:47:56 GMT -6
It seems like the NWS is trying to not sound the alarm too quick? Still talking minor to moderate impacts? They mentioned a wind advisory for Friday, so there's that. |
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