|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 8:52:08 GMT -6
Honestly, there is quite a bit to like about the NAM. I think it's a good start to 12z.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 8:52:15 GMT -6
There were several times where that 1/4/2014 storm should a decrease in snow amounts leading up to event only to come back just as strong if not stronger 2-3 days before. IIRC, models tried lifting that storm too far north around this timeframe and adjusted back south with time. The amount of digging and the timing of the negative tilt/pivot is crucial...a 50mi difference in track is huge. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 8:54:08 GMT -6
It seems like the NWS is trying to not sound the alarm too quick? Still talking minor to moderate impacts? They mentioned a wind advisory for Friday, so there's that. Everybody is managing the message a little differently. But that's not unusual. The uncertainty about snowfall totals is a big part of that. Looking at the NAM and it comes to a similar solution to Euro anf GEM.. just a touch faster. And it stops at 84hrs and its still snowing over eastern MO...with the 500mb diving southeast. Nothing in the NAM that changes my overall thoughts.. STEADY...STEADY... |
|
|
|
Post by weatherj on Dec 19, 2022 8:54:21 GMT -6
There were several times where that 1/4/2014 storm should a decrease in snow amounts leading up to event only to come back just as strong if not stronger 2-3 days before. IIRC, models tried lifting that storm too far north around this timeframe and adjusted back south with time. The amount of digging and the timing of the negative tilt/pivot is crucial...a 50mi difference in track is huge. Yeah, I believe the GEM and Euro were both mega amplified at first and then eased back SE a bit. |
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 8:54:25 GMT -6
There were several times where that 1/4/2014 storm should a decrease in snow amounts leading up to event only to come back just as strong if not stronger 2-3 days before. IIRC, models tried lifting that storm too far north around this timeframe and adjusted back south with time. The amount of digging and the timing of the negative tilt/pivot is crucial...a 50mi difference in track is huge. Correct. It is very common as energy gets closer to being on shore. I will never forget 5 days before GHD Blizzard in 11' where the GFS has two straight runs where it showed nothing! |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 8:54:49 GMT -6
It would be crazy if the Ukie was right all along, besides one good run it’s been a consistent cutter for days .
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 8:55:02 GMT -6
The 12z nam had a 1071 mb high in Montana at hour 72 lol.
That is absurd to see modeled outside of the fantasy land timeframes.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 8:55:20 GMT -6
this is a high impact event, even if we get 1 inch I try to stay fairly level headed but I will be pretty heated if we get one inch.  Sometimes i wish the public would not demand accum forecast. We are now starting to conclude that the most likely outcome is an inch or two. Ppl like to draw on their experiences. This could be different. But on the contrary, for purposes of public forecasting, high impact should be reserved for widespread travel difficulties. Isolated and sporadic travel difficulties would therefore fit into moderate. Im not going to conjecture what will happen, but the nws verbiage is ok for now. I see nothing wrong with the media messaging either. Most ppl know by now, to adjust their travel plans. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 8:56:24 GMT -6
It would be crazy if the Ukie was right all along, besides one good run it’s been a consistent cutter for days . It is the 2nd best weather model in the world, so wouldn’t be that shocking. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 9:05:51 GMT -6
I am writing the below in all CAPS on purpose...
WE ARE NOT GOING TO GET INTO A FURTHER DISCUSSION ON MESSAGING. PERIOD! END OF DISCUSSION. FOCUS ON WEATHER.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 9:09:47 GMT -6
RGEM goes Kaboom
Canada has held pretty steady.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 9:10:12 GMT -6
12z rgem is good for several inches of snow, strong winds, and temps crashing below zero.
A hair northwest of where we want the low, but obviously still yields quite the storm.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 9:13:13 GMT -6
12z rgem is good for several inches of snow, strong winds, and temps crashing below zero. A hair northwest of where we want the low, but obviously still yields quite the storm. If the low hits Notre Dame then we will all be happy. I would love to see it go from Memphis to ND instead of STL to ND, however. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 9:13:41 GMT -6
RGEM goes Kaboom Canada has held pretty steady. The 12z rgem is definitely northwest of its 6z run and the 00z ggem. So, definitely a trend there. So, the huge shift northwest on the gfs is likely overdone, but the idea of a northwest adjustment from yesterday seems to be right. |
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 9:15:16 GMT -6
NAM and RGEM both show temps around 5 degrees with moderate to heavy snow falling around 6 PM Thursday evening.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 9:17:03 GMT -6
RGEM goes Kaboom Canada has held pretty steady. The 12z rgem is definitely northwest of its 6z run and the 00z ggem. So, definitely a trend there. So, the huge shift northwest on the gfs is likely overdone, but the idea of a northwest adjustment from yesterday seems to be right. Which in reference to the GFS is not a suprise. I think most folks saw the Blizzard of 78 repeat as an outlier. Concerning for sure when it showed up 2x but an outlier. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 9:18:06 GMT -6
12z Icon looks a lot like the rgem.
It is also a bit northwest of its 6z run.
Clear trend emerging.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 9:19:41 GMT -6
Mets are talking about some front end rain in southeast missouri, along with a flash freeze ending as blustery snow so even if you have travel plans to the south, its going to be slick travels down into the bootheel if that happens.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 9:19:52 GMT -6
12z Icon looks a lot like the rgem. It is also a bit northwest of its 6z run. Clear trend emerging. If not for the ridiculous GFS runs yesterday, this mornings runs would have everyone really excited. That is legit wrap around snow with temps in the single digits. Full on Blizzard conditions for 6 hours. |
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 9:21:12 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by jeepers on Dec 19, 2022 9:23:17 GMT -6
Ok, that has me laughing. My sister currently lives an hour drive NW of Sault St Marie, ON on Lake Superior. This shows me being colder than HER.  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 9:23:29 GMT -6
Just looking over this mornings data, starting to see some consensus for a weak surface low to move overhead along the arctic front before bombing out to our northeast. Obviously this isn’t the ideal track for maximum snowfall but it would still bring several hours of snow with an incredible temp drop and very strong winds.
Like Chris has been saying, focus on the impacts and not the amounts.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 9:23:58 GMT -6
12z Icon looks a lot like the rgem. It is also a bit northwest of its 6z run. Clear trend emerging. If not for the ridiculous GFS runs yesterday, this mornings runs would have everyone really excited. That is legit wrap around snow with temps in the single digits. Full on Blizzard conditions for 6 hours. No doubt, Icon drops several inches, creates blizzard conditions, has temps at -12 F Friday morning, and keeps temps below 0 all day. That is about as extreme as it gets in STL. |
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Dec 19, 2022 9:46:18 GMT -6
What time are we thinking the snow is going to start Thursday?
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 9:47:20 GMT -6
Definitely seems models are getting closer to a consensus. The NAM /RGEM/ICON/Euro all look similar
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 9:50:54 GMT -6
First sref plume runs in range of at least part of the storm.
Mean is just below 2 inches at STL, but with at least a couple hours more snow to fall.
So, big picture I am conceptualizing 2-5 from STL north and occasional blizzard conditions based on current trends.
Subtle changes in track will modulate if these numbers rise sharply or if we need to focus on the low end.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 9:55:55 GMT -6
12z gfs looks like it will nudge east from its last 2 runs.
Should be more in line with other models.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 9:57:02 GMT -6
Solid improvement from GFS. Pretty consistent from the 3 so far this morning.
|
|
|
|
Post by stegenwx on Dec 19, 2022 9:57:28 GMT -6
A smidge east / south. Better than the other way I suppose
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 10:00:02 GMT -6
Several hours of blizzard conditions on the GFS Thursday afternoon
|
|
