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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 10:05:44 GMT -6
GFS has us getting down to -4 Friday morning with wind chills of -30
That's deadly cold
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 10:06:00 GMT -6
Ok... FINALLY...the painful process of birthing agreement in the models has born some fruit.
There is now decent agreement amongst all the data to start feeling more certain about snowfall amounts.
I'm definitely feeling confident in winter storm conditions with near blizzard to full blown blizzard conditions over most of the area for at least a few hours Thursday afternoon/evening. A very dangerous time to be on the roads Thursday into at least midday Friday.
How this range gets broken down still needs to be worked out... but I'm thinking the range for snow across my 35 county viewing area will be from 2 to 6 inches. I'm thinking the metro is more in the 2-5/3-5 type range...with any 6" totals being north of I-70... and the 1-3/2-4 type range being over southeast MO into southwest IL. Again... those are rough numbers for now. I will try and put something a little more graphically presentable together later... but I'm on vacation (technically) and have to hustle to the doctors office.
Steady as she goes captain!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 10:06:31 GMT -6
Depending on snow depth, Friday has a solid chance of staying below 0 F all day, especially away from the city.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 10:11:10 GMT -6
12z ggem is a real solid hit.
A touch southeast of the Icon and gfs increasing snow totals for the metro.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 10:11:15 GMT -6
Well, as long as we can all still make it to the Walmart self checkers holiday party, then Im good.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 10:11:20 GMT -6
GEM is pretty much the same as the rest if not a bit further east. Lot of good runs this morning.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 10:11:59 GMT -6
Depending on snow depth, Friday has a solid chance of staying below 0 F all day, especially away from the city. Definitely a good possibility with intense CAA through the day...similar to 2014 |
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Post by stegenwx on Dec 19, 2022 10:14:09 GMT -6
Are we now pretty sure this starts as rain for south of the Metro?
And how confident are we in the precip shield sticking as the low moves away? Models are showing it, but didn't know if that was digital snow.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 10:20:45 GMT -6
Chris’s forecast is basically what I’m thinking 2-5” or 3-6” range for the metro and crazy blowing snow Thursday afternoon and night. As Chris mentioned even after the snow stops falling, Friday the winds are still fairly strong which will create a ton of blowing and drifting
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 10:21:40 GMT -6
Pretty crazy to think we are probably going to see two storms within a year with temperatures near/below zero with accumulating snow falling.
This was unimaginable during the mid/late 2000s when mild winters became the norm.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Dec 19, 2022 10:22:58 GMT -6
We are supposed to see Home Alone performed by the symphony on Thursday evening. That is not looking good. I would not mind seeing this thing start about 10 to 12 hours later than it is currently showing.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 10:23:00 GMT -6
Pretty crazy to think we are probably going to see two storms within a year with temperatures near/below zero with accumulating snow falling. This was unimaginable during the mid/late 2000s when mild winters became the norm. Maybe a trend setter fot this winter perhaps? |
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Dec 19, 2022 10:24:06 GMT -6
Pretty crazy to think we are probably going to see two storms within a year with temperatures near/below zero with accumulating snow falling. This was unimaginable during the mid/late 2000s when mild winters became the norm. I definitely remember telling my wife we wouldn't see this again...... |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 10:27:21 GMT -6
Both the gfs and ggem show more energy diving down on the 26th that could add some light snow as well before we rapidly warm up.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 10:27:56 GMT -6
GEFS with a notable shift east with the surface low Thursday afternoon
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 10:30:54 GMT -6
GEFS with a notable shift east with the surface low Thursday afternoon Just noticed that. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 10:32:49 GMT -6
GEFS with a notable shift east with the surface low Thursday afternoon Individual ensembles are kind of bad though. Not my favorite there |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 10:47:27 GMT -6
UKIE is getting a stronger push from the blocking so it should move SE here.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 10:47:28 GMT -6
Ukie coming in line with the other models
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 10:48:04 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 10:48:07 GMT -6
It does seem like models are slowly converging on a solution where the mid-level low closes off to our NW and slides SE overhead or just to the N/NE. Definitely more of a hybrid clipper than a Southern Low. The biggest question is whether the mid-level low slows down and pivots enough to get the wrap around/TROWAL this far SW or not...that seems to be the difference between 2-4" or 6"+. I'd say the IL counties have a better chance of seeing that.
There's still a chance the primary shortwave/jet streak digs further S and allows the mid-level low to close off in a more favorable spot for the region. The consensus is for the vort max to track across S MO up into N IN...that's very favorable for significant snowfall here and gives room for the wrap around to extend further SW as the cyclone begins to bomb out to our E/NE.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 10:49:04 GMT -6
Not very robust with precip totals but great track.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 19, 2022 10:53:54 GMT -6
We have family coming to town the middle of next week. I know there was mention of some snow on the 26th but is there the potential for anything beyond that?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 19, 2022 10:56:48 GMT -6
This is starting to look like one of those 2-5" "blue northers." Very impactful with the intense cold and wind. I suppose we could still see a bigger back side hit as BRTN said, though I wouldn't count on that for now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 11:05:07 GMT -6
It should be noted that the primary bundle of energy involved with this system is still offshore in the GoA and won't be fully sampled until 00z Wed. There's still plenty of time for subtle shifts.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 11:18:01 GMT -6
We have family coming to town the middle of next week. I know there was mention of some snow on the 26th but is there the potential for anything beyond that? Most signs point to a mild pattern heading into the New Year as the Polar Vortex strengthens and returns to the Pole. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 19, 2022 11:35:43 GMT -6
I honestly think this thing starting out as rain makes this storm even worse ….. with the crashing temps all the doors and locks will freeze shut and the ice on the ground will let the snow blow even worse …. I’d rather just get snow
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 19, 2022 11:52:28 GMT -6
Seems to be the going prediction, It's a rain that quickly changes over to sleet and then very quickly to snow/wind driven snow that drops 3-7" with winds to 35-45mph with gusts up to 50-55 mph especially northeast of St. Louis. measurements will be meaningless as it will all be drifting/blowing around which means some spots will be almost bare while other places could have drifts a couple feet tall. Nevertheless between the combination of extreme cold, wind, and snow this is a high impact system. Sorta of like a mini-me January 2014 storm. Similar conditions, but less beefy totals.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 19, 2022 11:54:30 GMT -6
We have family coming to town the middle of next week. I know there was mention of some snow on the 26th but is there the potential for anything beyond that? Most signs point to a mild pattern heading into the New Year as the Polar Vortex strengthens and returns to the Pole. Still think we'll get pounded again around or after MLK day and into February. CFS really going almost all in on February, Dave said it would be the coldest month compared to normal so pretty much verifies the trend to that direction. |
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on Dec 19, 2022 11:55:02 GMT -6
We are supposed to see Home Alone performed by the symphony on Thursday evening. That is not looking good. I would not mind seeing this thing start about 10 to 12 hours later than it is currently showing. We also have tickets. Deciding if we try to sell them or hope they cancel the show and receive a voucher. |
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