Chris's Corner - The Christmas Edition for 2022

Euro looks to be a heavy hitter

wind chill -30 or lower thur night and fri morning on euro

Area wide 2-5 inches, blizzard conditions, temps around -10 F, and WC of -30 F.

Snow increases as you move northeast through Illinois.

Ratios will be higher than 10:1, but not as high as the Kuchera is printing out

Cobb method has been pretty consistent around 15:1 which sounds reasonable

The snowfield seems very much aligned west to east across the cwa rather than sw to ne with a sharp cutoff to the se. I'm guessing due to the fact this is a hybrid and not an amplified true S stream system.

IDOT has been treating the bridges and overpasses with brine for 2 months now. I guess they want them to degrade prematurely *shrug*

Not sure mild is a good way to describe it. Definitely not a blowtorch but also not grueling dangerous cold. I’m actually seeing a “normal” weather pattern developing. Temps look to hover around seasonal norms with ebbs and flows each way. I also wonder if the cold will depart as quickly as modeled, given the teleconnections and blocking. Time will tell.

Siberia is getting warm. Polar vortex is strengthening after this event. That is a setup for a mild pattern.

These stretched PV events are easier to repeat than a full split though, so could be a temporary moderation.

Hard not to have a mild pattern after it gets this cold, especially when your source region (Siberia) gets very warm.

This will put my backyard over 12" on the season maybe even over 13". With almost all of our snow falling January to March it looks like 20-25" could be easily attainable.

If things go better than normal 30"+ is in the cards.

Well if somebody smart said it, and you say it wasnt you, then it must be me. Bahaha

Ok...this is where I'm going to start my forecast numbers... my first map for this storm.
I'm still leaving it somewhat open ended... it is Monday after all.
I should also clarify... that while I strongly feel that we need to focus on impact more than actual numbers... and that 1 vs 2 vs 4 inches won't make a ton of difference while the snow is falling... I do think that the duration of the major impacts would be extended considerably by a 6+ inch snow vs. 1-2-3-4 inch snow. It might take until Saturday to get roads in decent shape with a 6+ snow... vs sometime late Friday with a 1-2-3-4 inch storm. A LOT will depend on how well road crews will be able to stay on top of the blowing and drifting. Thursday evening through Friday morning look especially bad to me... with those 30+ mph winds and blowing snow. Clipper's... even hybrid clippers can by their very nature move faster than forecast... so it would not surprise me to see the period of intense snowfall tail off faster than modeled. So that's why I remain cautious on with snowfall totals... which will still be difficult to measure anyway.

So... with all that... a blend of the 12z guidance...with a slight deduction for potentially faster motion. Here are my first set of numbers...

Looks like the Springfield MO office just issued winter storm watches for there northern tier of counties

It's been a minute, I hope everyone is doing well. As you can imagine, the hive is buzzing here. Amazing that the weather community has been talking about this arctic cold front for almost a week now, and we are still three days away from it plowing through. Quite the testament to our advancement in computer weather models the past two decades. I can only think of maybe one or two cold fronts in my lifetime that have come through here with such vigor as we are all forecasting on Thursday. The sudden drop in temperature, increasingly strong wind, and burst of snow will make for quite the wintry snow-globe scene heading into the Christmas Holiday Weekend.

Hi fish. Good to hear from ya!