Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320
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Post by Jeke on Dec 19, 2022 14:38:47 GMT -6
It's been a minute, I hope everyone is doing well. As you can imagine, the hive is buzzing here. Amazing that the weather community has been talking about this arctic cold front for almost a week now, and we are still three days away from it plowing through. Quite the testament to our advancement in computer weather models the past two decades. I can only think of maybe one or two cold fronts in my lifetime that have come through here with such vigor as we are all forecasting on Thursday. The sudden drop in temperature, increasingly strong wind, and burst of snow will make for quite the wintry snow-globe scene heading into the Christmas Holiday Weekend. A very long minute and glad to see you back. Also, CONGRATULATIONS!
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 14:45:01 GMT -6
18z NAM is basically 2-3” in a six hour window a little less than earlier run.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 14:45:18 GMT -6
AccuWx is calling for 6-10" IMBY with 60mph gusts...lock it in, lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 14:56:18 GMT -6
Thanks for chiming in fish!
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 19, 2022 15:06:56 GMT -6
Not sure mild is a good way to describe it. Definitely not a blowtorch but also not grueling dangerous cold. I’m actually seeing a “normal” weather pattern developing. Temps look to hover around seasonal norms with ebbs and flows each way. I also wonder if the cold will depart as quickly as modeled, given the teleconnections and blocking. Time will tell. Siberia is getting warm. Polar vortex is strengthening after this event. That is a setup for a mild pattern. These stretched PV events are easier to repeat than a full split though, so could be a temporary moderation. Hard not to have a mild pattern after it gets this cold, especially when your source region (Siberia) gets very warm. I guess I’m misunderstanding your definition of mild. Normal high for STL on December 31 is 41 degrees. Temp forecasts for that time period are around 43-46 degrees. I guess I would consider mild to be 55+ and a blowtorch would be 65+. Probably arguing semantics at this point. My point is though we will warm and it’ll feel mild compared to what we are about to experience, when comparing raw numbers, it’ll be about normal to slightly above for the time period. I also don’t disagree that after major cold snaps we usually have a period of milder than normal weather.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 15:11:35 GMT -6
I'm trying to figure out the date of the "super front" years ago that had a 40-50* drop in several hours...seems like it was on election day. That's the only time I've ever seen a crash like the one we're about to experience. That was a lot different setup though, with 70s ahead of the front and 20s behind it.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 15:11:56 GMT -6
18z rgem is nice for the metro.
General 2-5 inches continues to look good.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 15:14:57 GMT -6
18z rgem is nice for the metro. General 2-5 inches continues to look good. RGEM remains rock solid... and looks very reasonable. Deduct a little for potential faster motion and we are in the balpark.
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 19, 2022 15:15:41 GMT -6
I'm trying to figure out the date of the "super front" years ago that had a 40-50* drop in several hours...seems like it was on election day. That's the only time I've ever seen a crash like the one we're about to experience. That was a lot different setup though, with 70s ahead of the front and 20s behind it. 2nd shotgun season of 2007 or 08 maybe? That was a rain to ice to heavy snow situation IIRC, but it was 50 or 60 on the Thursday or Friday preceding the storm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 15:16:38 GMT -6
18z Icon is also very nice.
Would be more like 3-6 inches with the Illinois side favored for the highest accumulation (potentially 6+) .
Pretty nice runs and consistency developing.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 15:18:02 GMT -6
I'm trying to figure out the date of the "super front" years ago that had a 40-50* drop in several hours...seems like it was on election day. That's the only time I've ever seen a crash like the one we're about to experience. That was a lot different setup though, with 70s ahead of the front and 20s behind it. There was 1986 in the middle of january where it got to 75 before a front passed through dropping temps quite a bit. In 1984 christmas eve i was still in cape...my brother got stung by a wasp on christmas eve, then that night it dropped into the 30s. Might hv been a bigger drop for you up here.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 19, 2022 15:18:11 GMT -6
A big arctic outbreak is almost always followed up by a major warm-up. How long it lasts can be variable, but for every action, there is an equal or opposite reaction. Somebody smart said that once... and it certainly wasn't me Newton?!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 15:24:45 GMT -6
I'm trying to figure out the date of the "super front" years ago that had a 40-50* drop in several hours...seems like it was on election day. That's the only time I've ever seen a crash like the one we're about to experience. That was a lot different setup though, with 70s ahead of the front and 20s behind it. 2nd shotgun season of 2007 or 08 maybe? That was a rain to ice to heavy snow situation IIRC, but it was 50 or 60 on the Thursday or Friday preceding the storm. That's what I was thinking...07/08. It was 70+ in the Metro and IL counties with severe thunderstorms along the front and it quickly changed to graupel/sleet showers and finally snow squalls with 40mph+ gusts.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 15:29:10 GMT -6
I think I remember that one. T storms to back end snow. 70 to mid 20s. With a mid March snow storm following that weekend.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 15:29:44 GMT -6
I was just reading the Chicago area AFD and they are already talking about this one potentially surpassing the infamous 2011 Groundhog Day blizzard
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Post by thechaser on Dec 19, 2022 15:32:57 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 19, 2022 15:34:14 GMT -6
I'm trying to figure out the date of the "super front" years ago that had a 40-50* drop in several hours...seems like it was on election day. That's the only time I've ever seen a crash like the one we're about to experience. That was a lot different setup though, with 70s ahead of the front and 20s behind it. I'm thinking 2007-2008. I went from 70 and a severe thunderstorm warning to upper 30's with graupel in what seemed like only a hour or so timeframe. There was another big drop on Groundhog day like 2005 or 2006. Went from 70ish with severe thunderstorms to 20s that night.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 19, 2022 15:34:19 GMT -6
Hi fish! I had a feeling this setup on Thursday hasn't happened in a long time. I was telling alot of my coworkers that. It happens much more often in our transition months. Like March and or November. But in December especially with air temps reaching low single digits and wind chill values -30 to -40 possible.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 15:39:08 GMT -6
I was just reading the Chicago area AFD and they are already talking about this one potentially surpassing the infamous 2011 Groundhog Day blizzard The top end potential is actually quite life threatening up here. Definitely scary when you have a 4 month old compared to the shear excitement I used to feel.
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Post by thechaser on Dec 19, 2022 15:50:56 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 15:51:35 GMT -6
There's our WSW...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 15:53:49 GMT -6
How often do we get a 72 hour lead time WSW?
Has to be pretty rare.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 15:57:07 GMT -6
No wind chill watch is pretty surprising
I mean, it's not like that won't verify
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 19, 2022 15:58:13 GMT -6
Nothing for here. Shocking
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 19, 2022 16:01:31 GMT -6
Why isn’t the metro under the Watch?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 16:01:54 GMT -6
Nothing for here. Shocking For now. I would not be suprised to see it extended south when snowfall totals get more squared away. The watch now is for the area where there is a high degree of confidence accross the board. If model trends continue, more counties will probably be added. You have arguably the best forecaster in the State Leading the forecast tonight... Fred is THE best!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2022 16:05:14 GMT -6
Quite a few models actually have a maxima of QPF across the S half of the CWA...closer to the vort max track. I'd say this is looking like a solid 3-6" snowfall pretty much area wide...maybe tapering to 1-3" across the S counties.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 19, 2022 16:09:05 GMT -6
That would be some heavy, heavy snow if GFS were to verify. Sucks it’s so fast.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 16:09:42 GMT -6
18z gfs is solid for 2-5 inches as well.
Nice. Things are coming together.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 16:10:50 GMT -6
Gfs is about the same , six hours of moderate to heavy snow 2-4” probably high winds. Chicago looks to be ground zero
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