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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 20:26:01 GMT -6
where did you find this graphic? Can't see it on the nws page, and it is not in my fb. Maybe I have to hit refresh or something? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 19, 2022 20:28:20 GMT -6
How long you all been watching the NWS? You know they ALWAYS start low, then will increase numbers as needed. Nothing new here, still 60 hours from this thing.
That being said, if i have wasted 10 days of my life tracking this thing for an inch or 2, may as well commit me now.
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Post by thechaser on Dec 19, 2022 20:31:57 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 20:33:29 GMT -6
How long you all been watching the NWS? You know they ALWAYS start low, then will increase numbers as needed. Nothing new here, still 60 hours from this thing. That being said, if i have wasted 10 days of my life tracking this thing for an inch or 2, may as well commit me now. my gridpoint forecast says 1 to 3. The zone forecast for St. Charles County says light accums. I just don't see that graphic, so I'm wondering if it was taken down? It was timestamped 16:11, so Idk. |
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Post by cnagel3 - Festus on Dec 19, 2022 20:34:01 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 20:34:07 GMT -6
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Post by amstilost on Dec 19, 2022 20:47:01 GMT -6
I know, out of it's range, but I'm not 'impressed' the the 0z Nam. 500 and 850 lows way north from my view.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 20:48:34 GMT -6
I know, out of it's range, but I'm not 'impressed' the the 0z Nam. 500 and 850 lows way north from my view. The 00z nam would be awful lol. Thankfully, it is way outside its reliability window. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 20:49:54 GMT -6
NAM continues its mainly quick cold front snow 1-3” only snows for about 6 hours doesn’t really develop a low until after it passes us
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 20:51:26 GMT -6
It’s really not an organized low just a glorified post frontal 4-6 hours of snow, definitely not a good outcome for snow lovers
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 20:55:01 GMT -6
Next up RGEM and Icon, they have been pretty consistent, hopefully there trends hold serve. BAM weather and !AccuNotWx! just did Twitter live shows and both favor the 18z Euro which is pretty good for us. It shows the more southern solution, not quite as good as The GEM but better than the GFS. Hopefully tonight’s 0z Euro holds that trend as well.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 20:55:31 GMT -6
It’s really not an organized low just a glorified post frontal 4-6 hours of snow, definitely not a good outcome for snow lovers It’s not transferring the energy to the southern low soon enough. The northern wave is too dominant at first messing the whole thing up. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 21:06:39 GMT -6
RGEM continues to look solid
Cant knock its consistency
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 21:08:32 GMT -6
RGEM rock solid, looks 4-6” through the area
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 19, 2022 21:10:11 GMT -6
RGEM rock solid, looks 4-6” through the area meh..with 10-1 ratios it's half that |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 21:13:48 GMT -6
RGEM rock solid, looks 4-6” through the area meh..with 10-1 ratios it's half that You two have switched roles lol |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 21:19:52 GMT -6
I’m trying to remain positive:)
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 21:22:16 GMT -6
meh..with 10-1 ratios it's half that You two have switched roles lol Much like models switch roles. LOL |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 21:27:27 GMT -6
00z Icon is solid.
Definitely a shift east.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 21:30:41 GMT -6
00z Icon is solid. Definitely a shift east. ICON is frozen on hour 63 for me on Tidbits lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 21:31:37 GMT -6
00z Icon is solid. Definitely a shift east. ICON is frozen on hour 63 for me on Tidbits lol Yes, that happens a lot. Hate to give away my secret, but weather.us is way faster for the Icon. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 21:36:37 GMT -6
Hey it finally loaded
Ya, that's a good jog east on the ICON
Has the low bombing out east of Indy
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 21:37:50 GMT -6
It shifted east and actually lowered our snow by a little bit over all similar to gem and RGEM, maybe a little southeast of those by a touch
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 21:38:18 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 21:39:59 GMT -6
Not to nitpick the LSX office, but their official forecast has 1-2" downtown, yet they are saying it's likely downtown receives more than 2"?
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 21:46:26 GMT -6
Honestly some of their new graphics the last couple years are way to complicated and at times ridiculous.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2022 21:47:51 GMT -6
As we learned last winter, cold temperatures do not always translate to higher ratios. Not saying that is the case here. I've seen a lot of ppl asking about snow totals on social media and getting frustrated because they can't get answers. Good, I say. Unfortunately some have answered their frustration by posting a pretty bullish output. Not saying that won't be the case either. I know I'm resisting any temptation of sharing/socializing numbers, because any numbers formidable with a storm like this, do not do justice, and because I don't think we have a clear idea on how this is going to transpire. It's an impactful situation regardless of how much or how little it snows.
So many flights go through Chicago - that's my concern. The 12 to 18 inches of snow progged for them looks very reasonable with several different scenarios, and with all that wind...I don't know how quickly they are able to recover. I foresee a lot of people sleeping on the floor of airports waiting for a flight. Just the chain reaction of other feeder airports to Chicago could be bad.
For St. Louis, I'm actually trying to look ahead at potential post-storm clipper activity - conceptually it wouldn't surprise me to see a clipper early next week, but I'm sure much of any moisture is scoured out. Still could see a surprise or two. I'm also looking ahead to just prior to New Years when I'll be driving to TX - fortunately no concerns attm, otherwise, I'd pull the plug and cancel hotel reservations.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 21:55:51 GMT -6
GFS still north and west with low, 1-3” around the metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 22:02:00 GMT -6
I sense a trend  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 22:02:30 GMT -6
Not to nitpick the LSX office, but their official forecast has 1-2" downtown, yet they are saying it's likely downtown receives more than 2"? That usually means something is in the process of updating. It can take a little while for grids to update and then populate out to everywhere. |
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