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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 22:07:41 GMT -6
The snowfall charts can get a little wonky if you're pulling from Pivotal...and even some of the other sources.
When you get the tiger striping... I usually just go to the QPF page and guestimate from there... and match it against the snow depth.
The QPF is a solid 0.20 to 0.30 area wide...using 1/10... thats 2-3... using a 1/15 then your 3-4.5 ... so we are right in the ballpark with what we've been talking about...a widespread 2-5 type storm.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 19, 2022 22:08:00 GMT -6
Outcomes like what NAM/GFS are showing with brief but perhaps heavy post-frontal snow and abrupt temp and wind changes seems like a good use case for the Snow Squall Warning.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 19, 2022 22:10:13 GMT -6
As all these people start to get all Gloomy Gus about the models I'm going to parrot Chris...
Steady as she goes.
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 19, 2022 22:15:26 GMT -6
I’d take a good 3 in enough for a white Christmas but not enough to shutdown the area for the weekend.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 22:19:20 GMT -6
As all these people start to get all Gloomy Gus about the models I'm going to parrot Chris... Steady as she goes. I think the models so far support the going forecast. The gloomy feelings come from being teased with those two consecutive runs over the weekend. That was just pure torture to watch that eye candy and know there was a strong likelihood it would go poof... and it has. I'm not saying you discount those runs... there's always something you can learn from those runs. But the wishcaster in all of us wanted that to dream set-up to play out... even though we knew in our hearts it probably wouldn't... because the science did not support it. With so much jet max energy diving southeast that thing was going to just keep on chugging. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2022 22:21:14 GMT -6
GEM looks great almost identical for days
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 22:23:04 GMT -6
This will make me sound a terrible, evil, no good person...
But I really don't care what happens here as long as the east coast misses out on blizzard! They get enough!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 22:23:49 GMT -6
GEM looks really good
Looks like it actually has a Memphis low before rapidly lifting it NE as it strengthens
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2022 22:24:20 GMT -6
This will make me sound a terrible, evil, no good person... But I really don't care what happens here as long as the east coast misses out on blizzard! They get enough! This we can all agree on |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 19, 2022 22:25:24 GMT -6
The east coast sucks. Haha
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 19, 2022 22:31:27 GMT -6
Yep agree.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 22:50:02 GMT -6
UK is pretty stingy... mostly likely because of how quickly it whips the vort in the base of the trough to the northeast. Maybe 2-3 on average across most of the area...even a little less in spots.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 22:51:03 GMT -6
00z Ukmet is east as well.
Looks like Indiana might be the place to be unless we see quicker strengthening in future runs.
So it goes. Hard to stay in the bullseye for 3-4 days.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2022 22:52:54 GMT -6
Steady as she goes. I'm not waiting up for the Euro.
Given the remaining inconsistencies... I might just blanket the entire view area with 2 to 5 and call it a day. I don't want to focus more energy than I need on the snowfall totals when the message all along has been not to focus on the exact numbers... and just focus on the impact.
But for now... what's out there covers the situation.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 19, 2022 22:53:40 GMT -6
That being said, if i have wasted 10 days of my life tracking this thing for an inch or 2, may as well commit me now. That's what she said. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 19, 2022 23:30:47 GMT -6
Boy the mood has changed around here fast.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 19, 2022 23:31:49 GMT -6
How do i access the windchill maps?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 19, 2022 23:40:24 GMT -6
Boy the mood has changed around here fast. Ya I'm kinda glad I didn't get too hyped up like you guys did this weekend because I was working. However, I did take a glance at the gfs southern low scenario. It did look really good. |
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Dec 19, 2022 23:43:57 GMT -6
Boy the mood has changed around here fast. Ya I'm kinda glad I didn't get too hyped up like you guys did this weekend because I was working. However, I did take a glance at the gfs southern low scenario. It did look really good. People have been mad at Mother Nature for years it seams, and we have an event to track and watch unfold right before Christmas and people lost interest? |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 19, 2022 23:49:09 GMT -6
Ya I'm kinda glad I didn't get too hyped up like you guys did this weekend because I was working. However, I did take a glance at the gfs southern low scenario. It did look really good. People have been mad at Mother Nature for years it seams, and we have an event to track and watch unfold right before Christmas and people lost interest? Oh I'm still very excited. But I'm not all invested in snowfall amounts. Of course I would LOVE a big snow for Christmas. At this point I hope we at least get something else Christmas Day. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 19, 2022 23:54:06 GMT -6
Nothing wrong with a 2-4, potentially a bit more in spots a couple days before Christmas, with bitterly cold temps that will ensure it sticks around long enough.
Honestly, with my planned short travel and so many others, I could do without a repeat of Jan 2014. I remember I-55 was still partially covered 3 days after that one.
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 19, 2022 23:58:51 GMT -6
Nothing wrong with a 2-4, potentially a bit more in spots a couple days before Christmas, with bitterly cold temps that will ensure it sticks around long enough. Honestly, with my planned short travel and so many others, I could do without a repeat of Jan 2014. I remember I-55 was still partially covered 3 days after that one. As I said it won’t keep people home from doing stuff on Christmas Eve if it’s just a few inches. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 0:16:33 GMT -6
Euro looks solid
Kuchera map is printing out 5-7" area wide
Take some of that off due to "fluff" factor and your still looking at a solid 3-5"
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Post by MakeitRain on Dec 20, 2022 0:39:41 GMT -6
Coming back to STL Thursday night from Florida. May have to move the flight.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 1:31:25 GMT -6
Snow ratios are going to be 15-1 maybe 20-1.
The air mass that the precip is not only falling through but being created by is one of the coldest with depth of cold st Louis has seen the last 150 years.
The homeless are going to suffer so bad. If you do are going to be in areas that a lot of homeless are. Give out blankets or warm jackets.
Regardless of why or what those people have done to get there. They are still human beings. And I can assure everyone here that this incoming weather is scary for many of them who will be stuck outside.
When I was homeless on drugs in 2015-16. I was outside all night with no money, no nothing, no hope. I sat down in front of a shop n save in Belleville Illinois about 1230am and it was 15F and windy.
The manager came up to me and let me in and took me to the pharmacy waiting area and let me sleep there warm in a chair until 7am.
They let me do that 3 nights in a row. Other employees bought me snacks. I was so EMBARRASSED I broke down in tears hard over how generous people were to me while knowing I was "chasing the dragon".
I can't even IMAGINE how I would have survived that otherwise.
Anyways the models are showing temps reaching -30C around 875mb.
That's just unreal. Friday it's going to be below 10F with blowing and drifting snow.
It's very possible that it will be below 10F from Friday at midnight(AM) until early Saturday afternoon. About 36 hours of air temps between -5 to 6-7F.
Amazing.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 1:40:44 GMT -6
Nothing wrong with a 2-4, potentially a bit more in spots a couple days before Christmas, with bitterly cold temps that will ensure it sticks around long enough. Honestly, with my planned short travel and so many others, I could do without a repeat of Jan 2014. I remember I-55 was still partially covered 3 days after that one. As I said it won’t keep people home from doing stuff on Christmas Eve if it’s just a few inches. People will regret that. Temps are going to drop from near 40 around noon to 10F by 3-4pm and moderate to heavy snow. By 7pm temps will be closing in on 0F. By 10pm -3 to -6F. Euro at noon:  remove duplicate elementsEuro at midnight:  remove duplicate elementsUnreal |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 20, 2022 2:45:05 GMT -6
Snow ratios are going to be 15-1 maybe 20-1. The air mass that the precip is not only falling through but being created by is one of the coldest with depth of cold st Louis has seen the last 150 years. The homeless are going to suffer so bad. If you do are going to be in areas that a lot of homeless are. Give out blankets or warm jackets. Regardless of why or what those people have done to get there. They are still human beings. And I can assure everyone here that this incoming weather is scary for many of them who will be stuck outside. When I was homeless on drugs in 2015-16. I was outside all night with no money, no nothing, no hope. I sat down in front of a shop n save in Belleville Illinois about 1230am and it was 15F and windy. The manager came up to me and let me in and took me to the pharmacy waiting area and let me sleep there warm in a chair until 7am. They let me do that 3 nights in a row. Other employees bought me snacks. I was so EMBARRASSED I broke down in tears hard over how generous people were to me while knowing I was "chasing the dragon". I can't even IMAGINE how I would have survived that otherwise. Anyways the models are showing temps reaching -30C around 875mb. That's just unreal. Friday it's going to be below 10F with blowing and drifting snow. It's very possible that it will be below 10F from Friday at midnight(AM) until early Saturday afternoon. About 36 hours of air temps between -5 to 6-7F. Amazing. Friv I'm so sorry you were going through a rough time during that yr. I hope that things have improved for you. And that you are doing much better. We have all become family during the past several yrs. And I don't want to hear of you struggling like that. Makes me so sad. And I totally agree about the homeless. I really hope the heating shelters are in full force for them this week. 🙏 |
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Post by fojginmo on Dec 20, 2022 3:20:35 GMT -6
Not to nitpick the LSX office, but their official forecast has 1-2" downtown, yet they are saying it's likely downtown receives more than 2"? I sure hope so. Before I moved downtown most weather events happened say 44 & north. Now that I’m downtown it has been to the south. I want some decent winter before I move back down south. |
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 20, 2022 3:49:16 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 20, 2022 4:11:14 GMT -6
For those who were wondering why there wasn't one as of 3 AM Metro STL now has a Winter Storm Watch for Thursday and Friday.
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