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Post by landscaper on Dec 20, 2022 5:48:57 GMT -6
I like that new snow map and the NWS shifting the watch further south. Also, good disco this morning, the cover everything very well. I like the 2-5” area wide snow, the higher end of those up north of I70 and the lower numbers further south , north east of us, central Illinois should be in the 6+ range
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Dec 20, 2022 7:11:49 GMT -6
This place is quite. Waiting…
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Post by stegenwx on Dec 20, 2022 7:22:30 GMT -6
06 Euro not QUITE as robust as the 00z, but still a solid run. Take away some of those Kuchera totals like most are saying and I think 1-3 down south, 3-5 up north is a very prudent call.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 7:35:41 GMT -6
Significant delay in bombogenesis on all models has a large impact on temperatures. With the low making it further east, the core of the cold penetrates into the area. The euro is around -10 F Friday morning.
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Dec 20, 2022 7:43:02 GMT -6
Significant delay in bombogenesis on all models has a large impact on temperatures. With the low making it further east, the core of the cold penetrates into the area. The euro is around -10 F Friday morning. We always focus on the snow within these models, but how well do these models handle temperatures? That’s nearing the record cold of Christmas Day in 1983. That year it was officially-13F. |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 20, 2022 7:50:00 GMT -6
What are the chances the low track trends more south still, increasing snow totals?
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 20, 2022 7:57:30 GMT -6
Fox Weather this morning gave numbers for the metro area. 2-3in overall starts around noon and out by evening. Thursday
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 20, 2022 8:00:31 GMT -6
Quite a few SREF members show more than 6"
5 for Lambert and 7 for BLV.
A couple monsters in there for our Chicago folks.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 20, 2022 8:04:50 GMT -6
6z RGEM keeps chugging along. .35-.4 QPF pretty much area wide. That would be equate to 5-6" in spots and about as impactful as a storm as we've seen in the last 10-20 years.
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 20, 2022 8:08:26 GMT -6
Chris (or anyone), what are your concerns on power outages? This would obviously be a terrible situation with the brutal cold.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 20, 2022 8:14:07 GMT -6
Cards is SREF trending upwards for the average or has it been for awhile
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 20, 2022 8:18:55 GMT -6
There could be a few sporadic outages like we normally see with a high wind situation. Shouldn't be widespread.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2022 8:19:32 GMT -6
Chris (or anyone), what are your concerns on power outages? This would obviously be a terrible situation with the brutal cold. I'd say some isolated outages are possible with 40mph+ winds. I stocked up on propane and brought plenty of wood in yesterday! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 8:33:42 GMT -6
Chris (or anyone), what are your concerns on power outages? This would obviously be a terrible situation with the brutal cold. Possible...if we get wind gusts to 50 mph I would imagine we might get a few. Fortunately, this is going to quickly transition to a dry snow so build up on trees and powerlines is not a big concern. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 20, 2022 8:34:44 GMT -6
Nam wouldn't even cover the grass.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 8:34:44 GMT -6
What are the chances the low track trends more south still, increasing snow totals? Actually... any further south may decrease the totals at this point because it would take the pivot further east and out of our area. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 8:40:33 GMT -6
***DANGEROUS WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE BISTATE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY*** ***EXTREME COLD LIKELY ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS*** ***BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY FRIDAY*** We’ve been talking about the likelihood of extreme winter temperatures in late December for a couple of weeks now … and the next several days we will finally see it unfold. The day to focus on is Thursday as a powerful winter storm moves into the region. This will all unfold very rapidly Thursday. We may start very briefly as a mix of rain/snow/sleet... maybe for 15 to 30 minutes at most... then kick over to all snow… in the late morning to early afternoon timeframe. It’s all snow Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening… and for a couple of hours… that snow may be intense with rapid accumulation possible. Accumulating will rapidly wind down between 6pm and 8pm… with lighter snow/flurries thereafter. The DRAMATIC drop in temps takes place around noon as well. Temps will drop from the mid 30s mid-morning to just above zero by 6pm. Winds will rapidly increase from the northwest with 30-45 mph gusts likely...causing blizzard-like conditions for a while Thursday afternoon and extensive blowing/drifting of snow Thursday evening into Friday. Roads will get terrible quickly with this flash freeze set-up...and likely stay quite dangerous through Thursday night into Friday. I would expect some improvement by Saturday...at least on the main roads. Accumulations will range from 2-5 inches across the viewing area...with the 5 inch totals more likely to the north and northeast of STL. This storm will have a much more dangerous impact than its 2-5 inch forecast would imply because of the strong winds, extreme temperature drop and bitter cold winds. Travel is not recommended from Thursday afternoon until at least mid-morning Friday and alternate travel plans should be seriously considered. As for travel plans Christmas Eve and Day… the weather will be dry, but temperatures will remain bitterly cold…especially Christmas Eve… with some moderation expected for Christmas Day.    |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 20, 2022 8:41:23 GMT -6
Nam wouldn't even cover the grass. 12Z NAM stinks QPF wise for pretty much everyone. Light years different from even 6Z. Chicago would be cheated as well, only a couple inches for them. Not sure what to think of this run of the NAM. System moving through at warp 9 though probably won't put down much anywhere save for the eastern/central Great Lakes as it pivots back into Canada. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 20, 2022 8:43:03 GMT -6
FV3 has about 5 hours of pretty moderate to heavy snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 8:43:56 GMT -6
Nam and FV3 are pretty putrid regionally.
That giant snow maker for the Great Lakes looks dead.
Got sucked in again, damn.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2022 8:45:51 GMT -6
Just getting a look at the 00z/06z models and it's clear there's an easterly/weaker trend with the system overall. This thing is flying until it bombs out across the OHV/lakes. It's looking like a 3-4hr window of heavy snowfall is about all we're gonna get without any wrap around, so 3 or 4" seems like the ceiling unless it puts on the brakes sooner. Models have also trended a bit downward with the gust potential with the delayed bombogenesis...but still show 35-40mph gust potential with the strong gradient so it's still a highly impactful and dangerous event.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2022 8:49:24 GMT -6
Nam and FV3 are pretty putrid regionally. That giant snow maker for the Great Lakes looks dead. Got sucked in again, damn. I wouldn't be bailing with one run of the NAM, lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 8:51:48 GMT -6
Nam and FV3 are pretty putrid regionally. That giant snow maker for the Great Lakes looks dead. Got sucked in again, damn. I wouldn't be bailing with one run of the NAM, lol Not bailing, just acknowledging the trends since 18z yesterday for my region. Resetting my expectations from potentially 12+ to the same 2-5 for STL. No bigee. Trading off snow for even more ridiculous cold it appears. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 20, 2022 8:53:02 GMT -6
RGEM is going to come in solid again. It's my pick to click.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 8:57:05 GMT -6
RGEM is going to come in solid again. It's my pick to click. Curious where you are getting your sref numbers. The sref plumes I’m seeing are lower than what you are seeing. Are you just applying a personal ratio to the QPF? |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 20, 2022 8:57:21 GMT -6
Nam and FV3 are pretty putrid regionally. That giant snow maker for the Great Lakes looks dead. Got sucked in again, damn. I wouldn't be bailing with one run of the NAM, lol 12Z Model mean remains steady from 6Z maybe a shift southeast a bit with heavier QPF but nothing major. As probably been stated the extreme deadly cold has always been the main affair with this, the snow just adding to the misery and travel impacts with the holiday week. Our big snows will be waiting until late January-March. It's coming just likely not this time... (those looking for big snow numbers) In fact GFS has been hinting at a potential around the 3rd-5th of January with borderline temps, but those seem to be the bigger hitters around here then the extremely cold generally moisture starved systems. Still possibility of a Clipper moving through on Monday as well before the trough exits, so can't forget about that. The other big story is the nosebleed dry air with -10 to -15*F dewpoints with relatively low humidity. Might be time to bring the masks back not just for protect from all the viruses but also to help keep nasal passages and sinuses moist(er), especially considering that humidity will be extremely low indoors were there is heating making the already low humidity even drier. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2022 9:01:42 GMT -6
Some -60*F obs under the ridge in Yukon/NWT this morning...wow
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 20, 2022 9:03:55 GMT -6
RGEM is going to come in solid again. It's my pick to click. It yields 5-7" for the metro-east so probably the best we can hope for amount wise. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2022 9:05:24 GMT -6
I wouldn't be bailing with one run of the NAM, lol Not bailing, just acknowledging the trends since 18z yesterday for my region. Resetting my expectations from potentially 12+ to the same 2-5 for STL. No bigee. Trading off snow for even more ridiculous cold it appears. I'm glad STL isn't the only place that gets their hopes and dreams crushed, lol. It was looking like a big storm up there for several runs...still could be I guess, but the trend is clear like you said. The clipper nature of this storm is limiting until it fully transitions to a bomb cyclone well off to the east. If you just looked at the 500mb charts, you'd think we were gonna get buried...but it just doesn't come together quickly enough. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 20, 2022 9:07:11 GMT -6
Remember that suprise 6 inches a couple weeks ago? Anything can happen!
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