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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 9:09:02 GMT -6
Wind chills on the rgem are around -30 F Friday morning.
Definitely hope there are social supports in place because that is just ridiculously cold to be outside in.
Yikes
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 20, 2022 9:10:05 GMT -6
RGEM is going to come in solid again. It's my pick to click. Curious where you are getting your sref numbers. The sref plumes I’m seeing are lower than what you are seeing. Are you just applying a personal ratio to the QPF? For which area? For 9z Total Snow I see 5 members with 6" or higher for STL and 7 members at 5.6" or higher for BLV. Mean just over 3" |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 9:14:48 GMT -6
Curious where you are getting your sref numbers. The sref plumes I’m seeing are lower than what you are seeing. Are you just applying a personal ratio to the QPF? For which area? For 9z Total Snow I see 5 members with 6" or higher for STL and 7 members at 5.6" or higher for BLV. Mean just over 3" I can’t read lol. I read the number of members above 6 inches as the mean. My bad, carry on. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 9:17:08 GMT -6
12z Icon is good for 2-5 inches.
Looks like the nam’s failure to really generate a southern low is an outlier.
Hardly surprising that it is struggling.
Rgem/ggem currently get the award for consistency, but 48 hours remain…
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2022 9:17:23 GMT -6
I think ~3" is a good expectation with this system pretty much area wide...the rapid motion is limiting but we could see 1"/hr+ rates for a couple hours like Chris said.
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 9:20:54 GMT -6
Snow ratios are going to be 15-1 maybe 20-1. The air mass that the precip is not only falling through but being created by is one of the coldest with depth of cold st Louis has seen the last 150 years. The homeless are going to suffer so bad. If you do are going to be in areas that a lot of homeless are. Give out blankets or warm jackets. Regardless of why or what those people have done to get there. They are still human beings. And I can assure everyone here that this incoming weather is scary for many of them who will be stuck outside. When I was homeless on drugs in 2015-16. I was outside all night with no money, no nothing, no hope. I sat down in front of a shop n save in Belleville Illinois about 1230am and it was 15F and windy. The manager came up to me and let me in and took me to the pharmacy waiting area and let me sleep there warm in a chair until 7am. They let me do that 3 nights in a row. Other employees bought me snacks. I was so EMBARRASSED I broke down in tears hard over how generous people were to me while knowing I was "chasing the dragon". I can't even IMAGINE how I would have survived that otherwise. Anyways the models are showing temps reaching -30C around 875mb. That's just unreal. Friday it's going to be below 10F with blowing and drifting snow. It's very possible that it will be below 10F from Friday at midnight(AM) until early Saturday afternoon. About 36 hours of air temps between -5 to 6-7F. Amazing. We love you Friv! Your a good man and we all see that in you... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 9:22:19 GMT -6
This is definitely looking more like a “clipper on steroids” rather than the wrapped up low it was looking like a couple days ago.
Either way, it’s going to be one heck of a system. I’m still trying to wrap my head around the cold and windchill numbers being modeled.
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 20, 2022 9:23:46 GMT -6
Hey guys don’t look so down. We are still getting a White Christmas without the crippling snow storm.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2022 9:29:32 GMT -6
Gonna be a wall of snow crashing in around lunchtime Thurs...  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 20, 2022 9:50:03 GMT -6
GFS has decided to take the day off.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 9:56:42 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 20, 2022 10:02:44 GMT -6
Looks like it was pushed back to 31-45 mins now.
edit: back to 15-30 mins again.
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Post by stegenwx on Dec 20, 2022 10:10:54 GMT -6
Canadian continues to be consistent. Kuchera probably overdone, but looks good for 3-5 area wide.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 20, 2022 10:11:14 GMT -6
GFS is now running.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 20, 2022 10:11:51 GMT -6
It's coming out now
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Post by stegenwx on Dec 20, 2022 10:21:45 GMT -6
GFS just cruising right through the area. MAYBE 3 hours of precip. Others have mentioned this, without the wrap/bomb it's basically a robust hybrid clipper.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 10:29:28 GMT -6
I think the difference between 2" and 4" to 5" will be how well this vort max in the base of the trough is modeled and how well it performs. These vorts... especially with this kind of a cold air mass, can be highly efficient snow machines... even in short bursts. If we are to recognize the higher end 4-5"+ totals some models are still showing... this feature will need to be modeled correctly and perform to expectations. The GEM has been all over that little feature. The GFS has it but seems a little stingy on precip rates. As has been alluded to often, the speed is a factor and that will limit our potential accumulations. I'm going with a start time between 10am and 2pm Thursday and carrying snow through around 6pm...before diminishing. But that window is generous to allow for some changes in time and speed over the next two days. STEADY PEOPLE...STEADY!   |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 10:34:56 GMT -6
Has anyone with BUFKIT taken a look at the thunder snow potential with this? Obviously dynamics will be impressive, and soundings are showing some steep lapse rates higher up in the column.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 20, 2022 10:39:39 GMT -6
End of RAP looks great.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 10:51:34 GMT -6
12z Ukmet is still being really stingy.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 10:54:20 GMT -6
12z Ukmet is still being really stingy. Concerning....but not overwhelming. It too has the strong vort in the base of the trough in a somewhat favorable location... so it may just be a case where it's not generating enough QPF in the cold air. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 10:58:36 GMT -6
Has anyone with BUFKIT taken a look at the thunder snow potential with this? Obviously dynamics will be impressive, and soundings are showing some steep lapse rates higher up in the column. Steep lapse rates, but little if any elevated CAPE on the STL sounding. Some indication of banding/CSI potential as the Theta-E contours get close to vertical in the region of greatest lift. But like everything else... it's only for a few hours. I think we are right where we need to be with the forecast and messaging. A quick, nasty thump of snow for a few hours followed by extreme cold, wind and wind chills. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 20, 2022 11:02:28 GMT -6
Has anyone with BUFKIT taken a look at the thunder snow potential with this? Obviously dynamics will be impressive, and soundings are showing some steep lapse rates higher up in the column. Steep lapse rates, but little if any elevated CAPE on the STL sounding. Some indication of banding/CSI potential as the Theta-E contours get close to vertical in the region of greatest lift. But like everything else... it's only for a few hours. I think we are right where we need to be with the forecast and messaging. A quick, nasty thump of snow for a few hours followed by extreme cold, wind and wind chills. I’m just glad we are not going to get the crippling snow that would have shut the city down. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 11:08:21 GMT -6
Man, there are some awfully bare looking GEFS members on the 12z run.
We’re starting to get out of the ensembles window for usefulness, but still makes you pause when looking at it.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 11:15:18 GMT -6
Steep lapse rates, but little if any elevated CAPE on the STL sounding. Some indication of banding/CSI potential as the Theta-E contours get close to vertical in the region of greatest lift. But like everything else... it's only for a few hours. I think we are right where we need to be with the forecast and messaging. A quick, nasty thump of snow for a few hours followed by extreme cold, wind and wind chills. I’m just glad we are not going to get the crippling snow that would have shut the city down. Considering the road crew situation... it probably will Thursday night and possibly much of Friday. After that, I'd expect improvement. Hopefully I'm being overly pessimistic. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 20, 2022 11:15:30 GMT -6
Stop. I can't handle all of this good news
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2022 11:19:19 GMT -6
It's hard to imagine this thing falling apart with ~300m 12hr height falls and a strong vort max moving through the wheelhouse, as well as intense frontogenesis. This should be very efficient in squeezing out whatever moisture there is available...which isn't a lot, but enough.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 20, 2022 11:25:33 GMT -6
It's hard to imagine this thing falling apart with ~300m 12hr height falls and a strong vort max moving through the wheelhouse, as well as intense frontogenesis. This should be very efficient in squeezing out whatever moisture there is available...which isn't a lot, but enough. You do know the ARCH is still in STL right?!?! 😂😂 Anything can happen with that around these parts!!! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 20, 2022 11:34:21 GMT -6
Steep lapse rates, but little if any elevated CAPE on the STL sounding. Some indication of banding/CSI potential as the Theta-E contours get close to vertical in the region of greatest lift. But like everything else... it's only for a few hours. I think we are right where we need to be with the forecast and messaging. A quick, nasty thump of snow for a few hours followed by extreme cold, wind and wind chills. I’m just glad we are not going to get the crippling snow that would have shut the city down. I agree. As much as everyone wants a mongo snowstorm having it happen right before Christmas would not be good. Too many opportunities for too many bad things. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 20, 2022 11:40:06 GMT -6
Meh, there's always stuff going on somewhere that can be disrupted by weather. Chances of a mongo storm are so Infessimal around here I'd take a few days before Christmas or any other time. Lol
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