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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 20, 2022 11:42:40 GMT -6
It's still yet to be fully sampled, right?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 11:46:59 GMT -6
Man, there are some awfully bare looking GEFS members on the 12z run. We’re starting to get out of the ensembles window for usefulness, but still makes you pause when looking at it. Most of the ensemble members are much further northwest with the low which is interesting given all the other operational runs. Hard to put much weight in that unless the ggem and euro ensembles agree. Edit: looks like the cod meteorology 12z run is messed up and showing old data. Don’t know what the deal with that is, but explains what I’m seeing compared to the operational run. Please disregard. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 11:51:59 GMT -6
Man, there are some awfully bare looking GEFS members on the 12z run. We’re starting to get out of the ensembles window for usefulness, but still makes you pause when looking at it. Most of the ensemble members are much further northwest with the low which is interesting given all the other operational runs. Hard to put much weight in that unless the ggem and euro ensembles agree. I’m also not sure how much I trust this new GFS It’s been all over the place with this system from an east coast bomb to a cutter west of us. |
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Post by jeepers on Dec 20, 2022 11:59:12 GMT -6
Failing at not being grumpy. Going shopping to get some blankety Christmas cheer.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 20, 2022 12:19:05 GMT -6
Whatever ends up...this thing is zippity zooming by. Seems like with every model run it seems to get faster. As i stated before, if you want to see snow falling, dont take a nap, or you will miss it. That cold though...going to see some -10 out there in the local countrysides.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 20, 2022 12:20:51 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 12:36:50 GMT -6
The GEM keeps steady.
Steady course...
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Post by landscaper on Dec 20, 2022 12:41:48 GMT -6
Euro is basically cold front snow, six hours and gone
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Post by landscaper on Dec 20, 2022 12:42:11 GMT -6
Gem by far is best case scenario at this point
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 20, 2022 12:51:21 GMT -6
Euro is actually a bit stronger than previous runs and looks like it tries to go N even more once it moves past us. It’s actually a really solid run. 5-6 hours of moderate to heavy snow during the day. May only equate out to 3-4” but there’s potential for this thing to still surprise us a little more.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 20, 2022 12:51:32 GMT -6
Chris you still think 10-1 ratios because of the wind?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 12:58:04 GMT -6
RGEM is going to come in solid again. It's my pick to click. It yields 5-7" for the metro-east so probably the best we can hope for amount wise. We already have close to 10" on the season. For us that has to be like 300% above normal right now. If we end up getting 3-5" then we would be at 12"+ before January. All I can say is that we have had what 2 winters in our lifetime at 30"+ for Belleville? 2013-14 2009-10? 2010-11? 1992-93? I'm not sure. It's going to be so freaking cold. It will kill any enjoyability out of being in it.. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 13:08:59 GMT -6
Chris you still think 10-1 ratios because of the wind? 1:10 to 1:15 on high side. Early it may even be lower than 1:10 based on where the lift is in the column and the temps in that zone. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 13:09:42 GMT -6
The EURO looks great.
Lock it in
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 13:09:55 GMT -6
Ive been using 1:15 as an upper limit for my range.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 20, 2022 13:13:53 GMT -6
Thank you sir
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 13:14:10 GMT -6
As I shared with somebody just a little while ago, it's not about being perfect! It's about conveying an accurate description of the impact. I'm not going to cry if I miss accumulations a little. I just want people to understand the impact. This is going to be a brutal Winter weather event and very difficult to deal with as the 1st widespread event of the season for many of us. I know we had the surprise sloppy snow in November but there is no comparison to what is coming Thursday. This will be much worse.
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Post by stegenwx on Dec 20, 2022 13:46:37 GMT -6
EURO does look great, but as Chris and others have mentioned...those 20-1 Kuchera ratios it's printing out just won't happen (COD has Kuchera snowfall map). Cut those totals down sizably? Probably more prudent just to use the 10:1 maps.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 13:52:45 GMT -6
18z NBM snowfall and minimum windchills   |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 14:08:03 GMT -6
Looks like the winter storm watch was just updated at 2pm
2-4” and gust as high as 45mph
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Post by thechaser on Dec 20, 2022 14:12:07 GMT -6
Looks like the winter storm watch was just updated at 2pm 2-4” and gust as high as 45mph Added areas south and east of St. Louis too. Waiting to see if SGF will add watches in SW MO. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 14:16:56 GMT -6
I agree.
I think the impact the insane temp drop will have needs to be HAMMERED home.
Some of these models have us going from 35-40F late morning to near 0F by dusk
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 14:24:52 GMT -6
I don't get the 10-1 snow ratio idea. This is the rap at noon Thursday for downtown by the arch. The squall line is through at this point now the main snow is getting underway. Maybe winds or the quick drying off a -30C mid level airmass will hurt ratios. But it's certainly not to warm.  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 14:30:22 GMT -6
Is the 18Z man that bad??? I'm afraid to look since no one has posted about it.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 14:33:15 GMT -6
Is the 18Z man that bad??? I'm afraid to look since no one has posted about it. Nah seems fine Seems to support the going forecast |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 14:39:59 GMT -6
Is the 18Z man that bad??? I'm afraid to look since no one has posted about it. Nah seems fine Seems to support the going forecast Either way the models were like this in November. Then we got a 6-10" major winter storm. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 20, 2022 14:51:01 GMT -6
The HRRR is really going ham on this super thin line of convective snow that would last 15-20 mins when the cold dome arrives.
In February of 2002 IIRC we had one of these that dropped 2".
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 14:51:15 GMT -6
I don't get the 10-1 snow ratio idea. This is the rap at noon Thursday for downtown by the arch. The squall line is through at this point now the main snow is getting underway. Maybe winds or the quick drying off a -30C mid level airmass will hurt ratios. But it's certainly not to warm. There are a couple of reasons for the 1:10. The biggest is that the very strong wind gusts are going to pulverize the dendrites. We've seen that before. What should have been much better ratios did not play out as the flakes broke apart into much finer snow. The other reason is a totally non-emperical reason. It acts as an artifical constraint on the lowest limit of the range to protect against over forecasting. If the winds were going to be 10 to 20 mph I would think more 1:15 or 1:20 range... but with 30+ gusting to 50... I think its good to play it low. Time will tell how it plays out. In the end, it may not matter because an accurate measurement will be really hard to come by. |
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 15:09:59 GMT -6
OK serious question for a young buck and his wife who plan to head from STL to Chicago tomorrow morning despite my warnings. I feel like the boat captain telling Clooney on the Andrea Gail that he is heading into the mouth of the monster. I feel confident that when he sees the storm Thursday he will have second thoughts correct? Maybe Friday will be drivable?
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 20, 2022 15:17:19 GMT -6
So basically 48 hours out the general idea is 2-3in for the metro.
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