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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 15:29:50 GMT -6
And now the winter storm warnings and blizzard warnings start up North...
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 20, 2022 15:35:18 GMT -6
Western MO have winter storm warnings up
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Post by amstilost on Dec 20, 2022 15:36:37 GMT -6
I'm sitting at 44* 7 miles west of De Soto.
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 15:43:30 GMT -6
Sun with scattered clouds and 41 in O'Fallon, MO
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 15:50:57 GMT -6
I wonder if the SLR ratios could be harder than normal to predict because of the strong winds aloft?
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Post by landscaper on Dec 20, 2022 15:58:10 GMT -6
Yes most likely, very good disco write up again today for NWS, I think them and Chris are pretty much spot on currently. It’s not going to last all that long but probably a wild period when the heavy snow is coming down, only to transition to heavy blowing snow all night into Friday.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 16:06:00 GMT -6
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455 
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Post by luvhockey on Dec 20, 2022 16:06:23 GMT -6
Is this starting as rain and then quickly dropping temps for a flash freeze; washing any pre-treatment away?
Had a birthday lunch on the calendar at Lotawa Creek for a month.
Would love to try to get it in if this is later in the afternoon. I’m waffling back and forth.
Arnold to O’Fallon IL isn’t a short commute.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 20, 2022 16:16:26 GMT -6
If it does start as rain it would be very briefly likely less than 30 minutes. It could dilute the brine there spraying everywhere some. Honestly, with rapid onset of precipitation, heavy rates and rapid temperature drop, pre treats will only be effective for a short time at best. Roads will get icy, flash freezing very rapidly once the precipitation starts. I will be out in the storm doing snow removal, but if it didn’t have this as a job I would not be out from mid morning on Thursday into sometime of Friday. It’s going to be very difficult on the roads . I basically told my wife and kids no driving Thursday and probably not Friday until the wind dies down and they get the roads in good shape. I would expect some form of ice covered/snow packed roads Thursday into Friday. Hopefully I’m wrong
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2022 16:18:17 GMT -6
That's the strongest wording I've ever seen from an AFD out of WFO STL...
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 16:23:27 GMT -6
Is this starting as rain and then quickly dropping temps for a flash freeze; washing any pre-treatment away? Had a birthday lunch on the calendar at Lotawa Creek for a month. Would love to try to get it in if this is later in the afternoon. I’m waffling back and forth. Arnold to O’Fallon IL isn’t a short commute. Channel Door says new models have it coming in earlier at 9am and ending earlier....fwiw.... |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 20, 2022 16:24:15 GMT -6
The avg slr for stl is 12.0 with a std of 6.0. 75th percentile is 14.4, 50th percentile is 10.6 and 25th percentile is 8.7.
The nws had commented earlier that slr could be as low as 7 to start out, and as high as 15 later in the day iirc. Nothing remarkable expected relative to climatology as far as lsr is concerned. Seems like we cld see a brief period of sleet pellets at onset, but ice/icing in this storm will be unremarkable relative to the storm overall.
Yes we hv seen lsr as high as 30 before.
Any forecast of 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 even 3 to 5 seems like a reasonable forecast.
A fast in and out precipitation event, probably even faster than progged, but a prolonged impact event is shaping up as winds will continue friday.
I will be shutting off the water line to my fridge, which sets to an outside wall. I wasnt thinking clearly when i ran my water line up i guess, but it tends to freeze below 0. Bottled and tap water will be used.
Longer term, the New Years holiday will be different in terms of sensible weather. How much different remains to be seen, but frozen water pipes and blowing snow should be a memory by then.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 20, 2022 16:27:06 GMT -6
Western MO have winter storm warnings up They do? I'm not seeing any warnings in MO just yet. |
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 16:30:44 GMT -6
Don't normally have to say this but if you are out on the road Thur/Fri and see a stranded motorist please pick up immediately. This is not your normal storm. Also would not hurt to have your faucets have a slow drip to avoid freezing the lines.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 20, 2022 16:30:57 GMT -6
Western MO have winter storm warnings up I do see Wind Chill warnings. But not Winter Storm warnings. Those are probably coming though. Lol |
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 20, 2022 16:33:31 GMT -6
My mistake I agree wind chill instead
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 16:40:12 GMT -6
Western MO have winter storm warnings up I do see Wind Chill warnings. But not Winter Storm warnings. Those are probably coming though. Lol correct.... |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 16:43:49 GMT -6
Is this starting as rain and then quickly dropping temps for a flash freeze; washing any pre-treatment away? Had a birthday lunch on the calendar at Lotawa Creek for a month. Would love to try to get it in if this is later in the afternoon. I’m waffling back and forth. Arnold to O’Fallon IL isn’t a short commute. Any rain on the front end will be replaced by sleet then snow with 10 to 15 minutes at most I would think. It will be VERY VERY brief. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 17:07:15 GMT -6
OK serious question for a young buck and his wife who plan to head from STL to Chicago tomorrow morning despite my warnings. I feel like the boat captain telling Clooney on the Andrea Gail that he is heading into the mouth of the monster. I feel confident that when he sees the storm Thursday he will have second thoughts correct? Maybe Friday will be drivable? It has trended to be a lot less snow up here, but still 3-7 inches with 50 mph winds and temps below 0. Tons of blowing snow on Friday. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2022 17:49:07 GMT -6
Everyone must be eating dinner... 40 minutes without a post... that's a loooong time  I'm heading out to a holiday event for the evening. I'll be wearing a mask so nobody recognizes me and peppers me with questions |
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455
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Post by luvhockey on Dec 20, 2022 17:57:02 GMT -6
If it does start as rain it would be very briefly likely less than 30 minutes. It could dilute the brine there spraying everywhere some. Honestly, with rapid onset of precipitation, heavy rates and rapid temperature drop, pre treats will only be effective for a short time at best. Roads will get icy, flash freezing very rapidly once the precipitation starts. I will be out in the storm doing snow removal, but if it didn’t have this as a job I would not be out from mid morning on Thursday into sometime of Friday. It’s going to be very difficult on the roads . I basically told my wife and kids no driving Thursday and probably not Friday until the wind dies down and they get the roads in good shape. I would expect some form of ice covered/snow packed roads Thursday into Friday. Hopefully I’m wrong Thanks. I think we’ll be safe. It’s better to reschedule, even if it takes a month or more to get everyone’s schedules coordinated than never be able to schedule with that person because something happened. Thanks to all who chimed in. Much appreciated. |
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 18:00:59 GMT -6
OK serious question for a young buck and his wife who plan to head from STL to Chicago tomorrow morning despite my warnings. I feel like the boat captain telling Clooney on the Andrea Gail that he is heading into the mouth of the monster. I feel confident that when he sees the storm Thursday he will have second thoughts correct? Maybe Friday will be drivable? It has trended to be a lot less snow up here, but still 3-7 inches with 50 mph winds and temps below 0. Tons of blowing snow on Friday. I just can't believe you were locked in as the bullseye just 18 hours ago and it has drastically changed that much... |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 18:04:28 GMT -6
It has trended to be a lot less snow up here, but still 3-7 inches with 50 mph winds and temps below 0. Tons of blowing snow on Friday. I just can't believe you were locked in as the bullseye just 18 hours ago and it has drastically changed that much... Yeah, STL gets screwed a lot, but so do most other places. Still should be impressive, just not historic for up here. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 20, 2022 18:37:18 GMT -6
Anyone know how the 18z Euro looks?
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 20, 2022 18:40:58 GMT -6
Just wondering has the wind threat been reduced with the snow amount?
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 18:41:20 GMT -6
I get the feeling that a lot of people in STL are not that impressed with this storm when they hear 2-4 inches with wind and bitter cold. I think they believe this is something they have seen many times before. IMO
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2022 18:46:03 GMT -6
Anyone know how the 18z Euro looks? Pretty much a carbon copy of the 12z run |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 20, 2022 18:51:39 GMT -6
I get the feeling that a lot of people in STL are not that impressed with this storm when they hear 2-4 inches with wind and bitter cold. I think they believe this is something they have seen many times before. IMO Well, if they think that, it's their own fault for not LISTENING and READING. We are doomed as a nation lol. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 20, 2022 19:09:08 GMT -6
Yes I agree, not nearly the buzz from family and friends about this storm. Most people at work barely know there is a prediction of snow.
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Post by TK on Dec 20, 2022 19:23:15 GMT -6
Yes I agree, not nearly the buzz from family and friends about this storm. Most people at work barely know there is a prediction of snow. Exactly |
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