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Post by TK on Dec 16, 2022 21:46:41 GMT -6
I'm feeling cautiously optimistic going into this weekend....Come on baby....one time....All I want to Christmas.......
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 16, 2022 22:13:07 GMT -6
GFS is a dud this run. Major dud. Lol
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Post by stegenwx on Dec 16, 2022 22:16:18 GMT -6
That was ugly
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 16, 2022 22:16:33 GMT -6
GFS is a dud this run. Major dud. Lol Blows it up to our northwest then it dies over us only to blow up again to our southeast …… I would laugh but it has happened before |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 16, 2022 22:25:02 GMT -6
GEM is still going bombs away with a mega Great Lakes low
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Post by landscaper on Dec 16, 2022 22:29:18 GMT -6
Yes but it show’s mostly post frontal snow here, with bad positioning, we will never get the 4-8” it’s showing with that set up.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 16, 2022 22:31:49 GMT -6
It tries to pull in the energy from the SW US and just shears it apart. Looks funky to me
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 22:48:48 GMT -6
00z Ukmet is loading up for something big…
Incredible temperature gradient at hour 144.
Perhaps, just a little bit too far west based, but looks like it is dumping heavy snow at the end of its run.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 22:56:47 GMT -6
Definitely a step back on the 00z gfs ensembles, though plenty of individual members still show a good storm.
Mixed set of runs so far, but with the Ukmet west, I’m confident the euro will not be collapsing to the gfs tonight.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 16, 2022 23:04:06 GMT -6
The temp gradient on the Ukie is insane  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 16, 2022 23:19:40 GMT -6
we will probably continue to ride the ebb and flow of the models through the weekend without confidently knowing what the outcome will be. With an emerging pattern, models will still struggle. We know it will be cold, and I'm still confident that we will see some snow. Maybe snow showers presenting as snow snakes on roadways, maybe something more; but at least that, IMO. Trying not to be negative to the snow lovers on here. I hate cold without snow.
The GFS is like a motion picture for the corner lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 16, 2022 23:24:23 GMT -6
and man, the winds just keep coming outside.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 16, 2022 23:30:10 GMT -6
even the cfs is laughable, for those of you that are looking way ahead. But the bottom line is the models are never trustable with such a profound pattern change in the works.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 16, 2022 23:45:04 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 17, 2022 0:11:46 GMT -6
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Post by thechaser on Dec 17, 2022 0:21:37 GMT -6
FWIW, the 0z NBM is promising for snowfall totals. Got in trouble for posting the snowfall totals last time, my bad lol
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Post by thechaser on Dec 17, 2022 0:40:54 GMT -6
Wind chills are still crazy cold on the 0z Euro. I've experienced those in western Kansas before, didn't think I would in STL.
Edit: STL metro was under Wind Chill Warnings back on 1/29/19. Been a few years at least.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2022 0:47:18 GMT -6
Euro isn’t the mega blizzard like last run but it would still be a major winter storm with incredible cold. These wild chills are no joke.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 1:35:55 GMT -6
00z euro is a full blown bomb cyclone registering a 34 mb drop in pressure in a 24 hour period (well beyond the 24 in 24 minimum).
It is actually more impressive than at 12z. The difference is that it is more progressive.
Still an incredible run and incredible storm.
Should ease some nerves for those worried about the gfs solution.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 17, 2022 1:40:04 GMT -6
 Pretty significant signal on the EURO mean... at this range, that's probably your closest bet to what might unfold. Going to be some insane lift out ahead of that deepening trough. Think you folks are in for some fun... but that's just IMO. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 17, 2022 1:43:05 GMT -6
Probably want the anomaly to come a little further south, but based on the strength... recent south trend in the last 48 hours... don't think it will be impossible to do
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 4:36:40 GMT -6
6z gfs is a step back in the right direction.
It even has a “bonus” clipper on Christmas to round things out.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 17, 2022 5:25:11 GMT -6
6z gfs is a step back in the right direction. It even has a “bonus” clipper on Christmas to round things out. Normally I'd be worried about a storm cutting too far west and screwing the eastern part of the CWA, but in this case with such huge cold rapidly being advected in I would think everyone gets at least the ground covered. Time will tell as I know we still don't know where the storm will track just yet or even if it will be amped. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 17, 2022 6:47:26 GMT -6
6z gfs is a step back in the right direction. It even has a “bonus” clipper on Christmas to round things out. Would be a 3 day mood snow leading up to Christmas. I love that the euro gets organized quick enough. Would rather have them on our side right now at this stage than the GFS. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 17, 2022 6:54:20 GMT -6
The 500 mb charts on the euro from hour 150 to about 174 are incredible. The way that thing comes together from NE Arkansas to West central indiana is a thing of beauty. There isn’t much more room for it to cut any further N than that either, which is good.
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Post by freezyfree on Dec 17, 2022 7:13:17 GMT -6
I just need my son home from Altus AFB in Ok. He flies in Friday morning!
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Dec 17, 2022 9:17:08 GMT -6
Hello gang, long time no talk. Excited about this potential storm next week as I'll be back in Ste Gen for Christmas with my family. Excited to experience this holiday fun with you all.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 9:42:46 GMT -6
12z Icon is back in the euro camp.
Pretty good start to the 12z suite.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 17, 2022 9:49:54 GMT -6
NAM looks good for light snow on Monday
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Post by landscaper on Dec 17, 2022 9:55:00 GMT -6
Hopefully the low track’s further further south and east, the euro and icon low going right over us is never a good outcome. Basically some light post frontal snow
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