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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2022 9:59:47 GMT -6
Hopefully the low track’s further further south and east, the euro and icon low going right over us is never a good outcome. Basically some light post frontal snow i think you mean west, but this is a different kind of system, idk. Cold in front, bitter behind, we'll see I guess |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 10:06:50 GMT -6
12z gfs looks close to going kaboom.
1068 mb pressing in lol
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Post by landscaper on Dec 17, 2022 10:08:32 GMT -6
GFS Going to be a beast run , probably similar to the nice euro run a couple days ago
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2022 10:10:10 GMT -6
GFS is a good one, nice
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Post by weatherj on Dec 17, 2022 10:10:32 GMT -6
Hopefully the low track’s further further south and east, the euro and icon low going right over us is never a good outcome. Basically some light post frontal snow That's what I'm worried about in a powerful phased bomb situation. The western CWA would be in good shape still, but the metro east probably not so much. I am getting confused a bit though. Is it a NW to SE super clipper that was talked about earlier or a phased bomb? It's the same 2 ideas for the same storm depending on evolution I guess. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 10:13:16 GMT -6
Pretty close to an ideal run there at this range.
Nice
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2022 10:14:02 GMT -6
I think that would qualify as a b word on the GFS
Extremely tight temp gradient across the area as the system wraps up
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Post by weatherj on Dec 17, 2022 10:17:54 GMT -6
The GFS run does look great areawide though. Rain nowhere near close to anyone in the entire CWA. It takes the SLP from N Mississippi to SE Indiana. A little wiggle room west would be ok, but not too much..lol. Temps start in the teens in the west and the mid-upper 20's in the east and crash from there.
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Post by stegenwx on Dec 17, 2022 10:24:22 GMT -6
Canadian on board as well. What could go wrong? 😏
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2022 10:24:53 GMT -6
GEM says, I want in I want in..I want to show a blizzard too
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Post by landscaper on Dec 17, 2022 10:26:06 GMT -6
That would most likely be about as blizzard conditions as it comes around here . Holiday travel would be very rough
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 17, 2022 10:27:20 GMT -6
Looks like it's all aboard for all the 12Z solutions. Watch, 12Z Euro will break the streak with a flat or suppressed system. Icon isn't bad either.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2022 10:34:07 GMT -6
The GFS run does look great areawide though. Rain nowhere near close to anyone in the entire CWA. It takes the SLP from N Mississippi to SE Indiana. A little wiggle room west would be ok, but not too much..lol. Temps start in the teens in the west and the mid-upper 20's in the east and crash from there. Looking like more of a Colorado Low setup...definitely not our typical Southern Low but more of a hybrid clipper that goes berserk. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 10:36:10 GMT -6
12z ggem has temps at -17 Christmas morning in STL.
Then it has another clipper dropping in Christmas night to top off the snow.
12z gfs bottoms out at -7 on Christmas Eve morning.
The extreme cold is still a huge part of this story.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2022 10:46:43 GMT -6
12z GEFS is coming in with a much stouter ridge ahead of the system and a trough that is deeper and further west. This is all good news for our system to eject and rapidly spin up along on the nose of the arctic air  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 10:51:07 GMT -6
12z Ukmet is too far northwest.
No clean sweep
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2022 10:57:22 GMT -6
12z GEFS is coming in with a much stouter ridge ahead of the system and a trough that is deeper and further west. This is all good news for our system to eject and rapidly spin up along on the nose of the arctic air The vortex over James Bay and the confluence underneath across the lakes is a really great look at this range. The mega ridge that the UKMET and some others have shown looks way overdone with the -NAO block in place. |
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Post by stegenwx on Dec 17, 2022 11:03:40 GMT -6
UK swing and a miss. Typically how close are the solutions of the UKMET and EURO? Guessing it varies
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 11:07:56 GMT -6
UK swing and a miss. Typically how close are the solutions of the UKMET and EURO? Guessing it varies It is kind of like the nam and gfs. They are more likely to be similar, but definitely can still disagree. I expect the euro to be northwest of the gfs and ggem, but probably southeast of the Ukmet. |
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Post by weatherj on Dec 17, 2022 11:09:41 GMT -6
UK swing and a miss. Typically how close are the solutions of the UKMET and EURO? Guessing it varies Last night the Euro was southeast of the Ukmet I believe, so it likely varies. I have seen those two models in agreement quite often though. |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 17, 2022 11:26:24 GMT -6
Greetings all from SoCal -long time no talk. Excited for the winter fun this Christmastime!
I am supposed to fly in STL early on Thursday afternoon. If current trends hold, is it possible I may need to fly in Wednesday instead, if I can? Appreciate any first insights, as I recognize it is still early.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 17, 2022 11:50:59 GMT -6
With what is currently modeled, I would definitely fly in on Wednesday, obviously that could change at any time, but Thursday afternoon looks to be prime time for snow/wind/falling temps
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 17, 2022 11:58:17 GMT -6
If you looked at the GFS on just black and white maps you would probably think 100% blizzard. The way it digs and pivots is textbook.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 17, 2022 12:01:28 GMT -6
Yeah I would fly in Wednesday for sure.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 12:29:22 GMT -6
Kaboom
12z euro spins up a bomb cyclone
A bit too far east to really hammer the metro, but still a good hit
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2022 12:39:15 GMT -6
I'm still just trying to wrap my head around the cold and wind combo the models are printing out around here.
Most models have temps near 0F with winds gusting near 50mph
You wouldn't even need much snowfall to get ground blizzard conditions
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 12:57:02 GMT -6
Euro is onboard with another impulse the day after Christmas.
Lots to be excited about with the 12z model suite.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 17, 2022 13:10:10 GMT -6
Euro definitely not great for St. Louis, 6 hours of snow 1-3” at best then wind and cold Great Lakes storm . The gfs and gem are much better solutions for us down here
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 13:21:13 GMT -6
Euro definitely not great for St. Louis, 6 hours of snow 1-3” at best then wind and cold Great Lakes storm . The gfs and gem are much better solutions for us down here I would say it’s not great for snow. But overall, it has a couple inches with temps dropping to -8 F and winds gusting to 50-60 mph in STL. That is nuts when you look beyond just snow totals. Certainly, a better track than the Ukmet. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2022 13:24:41 GMT -6
I was looking at my NWS forecast and saw the mention of heavy snow Thursday. I don’t think I’ve ever seen them use that wording this far out.  |
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