|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Dec 26, 2022 19:32:02 GMT -6
Well the snow we got was enough to cover the remaining patches of grass in our yard.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 26, 2022 21:11:31 GMT -6
Legit heavy snow with borderline tiny baby Hammy's. Too bad it's going to last 5 mins tops. Bet it messed the roads up bad real be quick Theres a fb page i follow out of cape girardeau reporting south bound I 55 is shut down and they are unsure if northbound is shut down. Are they getting snow? **Edit** reports of a single vehicle accident in the guard cables. fb page reports numerous accidents all over the interstate, but I can't confirm that via modot site. If you're headed south on the interstate, be prepared for a brief stop in cape county. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 26, 2022 21:27:28 GMT -6
I will say that these dendrites sure made all the snow left beautiful. I figure everything else on asphalt anything like that is going to be gone tomorrow probably pretty much about everything unless it's protected in the north facing way. Then on Wednesday I can't see it being anything below 55 so all the snow will be gone by then. Now we're getting that very very end of the clipper upper level snow deal where it starts to become partly cloudy and you still have fallen light snow. Hopefully this early January blow torquing only last for 10 to 14 days we get the Siberian Express back together and can get back on the snow and cold With renewed Ural blocking and a new PV stretch event looking likely, I’m feeling much better about January. I think we could have something as early as the 6th and will be rocking and rolling by the 15th. Can you please explain ural blocking? I thought for a second you were talking about a medical issue. |
|
|
|
Post by tedrick65 on Dec 26, 2022 21:35:55 GMT -6
With renewed Ural blocking and a new PV stretch event looking likely, I’m feeling much better about January. I think we could have something as early as the 6th and will be rocking and rolling by the 15th. Can you please explain ural blocking? I thought for a second you were talking about a medical issue. Ural mountains in west central Russia...but still nearly 1000 miles east of Moscow. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 26, 2022 21:39:21 GMT -6
Can you please explain ural blocking? I thought for a second you were talking about a medical issue. Ural mountains in west central Russia...but still nearly 1000 miles east of Moscow. Thank you Tedrick! We normally talk about mjo phases, etc, but all of a sudden a new term cropped up this year. |
|
|
|
Post by tedrick65 on Dec 26, 2022 22:03:15 GMT -6
Ural mountains in west central Russia...but still nearly 1000 miles east of Moscow. Thank you Tedrick! We normally talk about mjo phases, etc, but all of a sudden a new term cropped up this year. I agree that Ural blocking sounds pretty painful...  |
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Dec 26, 2022 22:16:46 GMT -6
M0.5" storm total...2.4" seasonal total so far Better than some years, but still pretty dismal. I’m not far behind or ahead of you. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 26, 2022 22:22:22 GMT -6
Thank you Tedrick! We normally talk about mjo phases, etc, but all of a sudden a new term cropped up this year. I agree that Ural blocking sounds pretty painful... It may be painful even weather-wise as well, based on what I read so far, we might not really want a ural blocking. Feels like it teleconnects well with the midwest being on the western flank of a longwave trough, meaning our sensible weather is cold and clippers alternating with rapid warmups; while we watch n'oreasters slam the northeast with yet another lifetime storm. Doesn't seem like it is conducive to mid latitude storms, like what we might find during a negative epo. I guess there's excitement in cold because that's technically half the equation to getting a winterstorm, but I see no real indication of mid latitude southwestern storm systems developing, because the ural blocking seems to promote a ridge over much of the west, where the drought is so extensive, and some of that may be the same pattern which brought such severe drought to the plains into the ms valley. I need to do a lot more reading to get on board though. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 26, 2022 22:40:55 GMT -6
I agree that Ural blocking sounds pretty painful... It may be painful even weather-wise as well, based on what I read so far, we might not really want a ural blocking. Feels like it teleconnects well with the midwest being on the western flank of a longwave trough, meaning our sensible weather is cold and clippers alternating with rapid warmups; while we watch n'oreasters slam the northeast with yet another lifetime storm. Doesn't seem like it is conducive to mid latitude storms, like what we might find during a negative epo. I guess there's excitement in cold because that's technically half the equation to getting a winterstorm, but I see no real indication of mid latitude southwestern storm systems developing, because the ural blocking seems to promote a ridge over much of the west, where the drought is so extensive, and some of that may be the same pattern which brought such severe drought to the plains into the ms valley. I need to do a lot more reading to get on board though. Ural blocking is ideal for exciting wave flux into the stratospheric polar vortex. Currently, that energy is predicted to “reflect” indicating a stretched polar vortex event which we have seen every month since October. This is conducive to widespread cold and potential winter storms east of the Rockies. There is also some model support for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) to follow the stretched event which could yield a prolonged wintry pattern, but that is far less certain. I would encourage you to look at Dr. Cohen’s AER blog as he is an expert in this area and breaks it down nicely for non experts. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 26, 2022 22:47:08 GMT -6
Thank you. Yes, I'm looking at multiple sources describing ural blocking. Often the mention of winterstorms is just in the context of east coast, and interior northeast, but I'll keep reading.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 26, 2022 23:12:06 GMT -6
FOR ALL SNOW LOVERS!!!
GO TAKE A WALK IN THE SNOW TONIGHT.
OR EARLY AM PREFERABLY BEFORE IT'S FULL DAYLIGHT
ALTHOUGH TOMORROW THE MORNING UNTIL MID MAYBE EVEN LATE MORNING WILL BE FROZEN GOOD.
BUT 11-5PM TOMORROW THE SNOW IS GOING TO VANISH LIKE A STINKY GORILLA IN THE JUNGLE EATING ANTS ON A STICK HE DIPPED IN SAP.
ANYWAYS... THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST CHANCE TO FEEL THE WHITE WINTER COLD AROUND YOU.
ABSOLUTELY HUGE WHOLESALE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 26, 2022 23:15:35 GMT -6
This is just fantasy talk for fun but the GFS next week has a humongous Bermuda high lining up with the east coast to give us warmth and then blow torching.
And then towards the end of the GFS run.
THE PACIFIC FIRE HOSE ALMOST REACHES THE CANADIAN Archipelago.
FLOODING CANADA WITH WARM MID-LEVEL AIR ALMOST TO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.
OBVIOUSLY THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
I'M KIND OF MISSING THE DAYS WHEN WE DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT THESE BIG WHOLESALE PATTERNS AND YOU KNOW ALL WE WOULD DO IS HOLD OUT HOPE THAT NEXT WEEK THERE BE A SNOWSTORM.
NOW WE KNOW IT'S GOING TO BE WEEKS AND WEEKS WHAT A BUMMER
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 27, 2022 0:02:27 GMT -6
Have had light snow with times of large flakes for 90 minutes.
Looking at radar is it possible some marsh area or sat Horse so shoe lake effect??
Maybe the winds are blowing down the Mississippi between Grafton and Alton?
Where the Illinois/Mississippi meet??
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 27, 2022 0:10:44 GMT -6
That can't be it.
The river is cholked full of ice. So horseshoe lake is probably iced over.
Maybe it's just a radar error and it's snowing all over the metro..
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2022 10:18:44 GMT -6
That can't be it. The river is cholked full of ice. So horseshoe lake is probably iced over. Maybe it's just a radar error and it's snowing all over the metro.. Judging by the sounding you posted I'd say it was low-level SNSH...some CAPE with the steep lapse rates and the DGZ just off the deck. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 27, 2022 10:41:20 GMT -6
Those dendrites from yesterday sure are sparkly in the sun. The same sun that is slowly murdering them. Sad.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2022 11:18:05 GMT -6
Looking long term, the pattern looks warm and active overall into the first week of the New Year with a -PNA developing and the -NAO/AO collapsing. The SOI has also taken a big upturn, which supports above normal temps. Things start to look a bit better though after the first full week of Jan with ensembles showing the Aleutian trof returning and building ridging across W/Central Canada. And there are some signs of a potential SSW event unfolding in the D10-15 range, which would highlight GHD/early Feb as a period of interest for sustained cold and active pattern IF it does develop and mature. The EC shows warming developing across eastern Eurasia at 10mb that starts to develop a burst of westerlies aimed towards the pole. We'll have to watch how that trends over the next couple weeks.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2022 11:30:30 GMT -6
Definitely not a good pattern for the next 15 days mostly above normal temperatures with a lot of rain. It’s crazy when we did finally get cold enough for snow we couldn’t get over.15” of qpf and now we warm up and we get bombarded with multiple decent rain events . It’s the St Louis way for sure. Definitely a good start to winter hopefully the pattern changes back in mid January
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2022 11:33:03 GMT -6
The 00z GFS is bullish with the SSW event unfolding next month...this would be a major event if it continued later into January and would possibly split the vortex...it's already stretched by D15. D7  D10  D15  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2022 11:35:00 GMT -6
Definitely not a good pattern for the next 15 days mostly above normal temperatures with a lot of rain. It’s crazy when we did finally get cold enough for snow we couldn’t get over.15” of qpf and now we warm up and we get bombarded with multiple decent rain events . It’s the St Louis way for sure. Definitely a good start to winter hopefully the pattern changes back in mid January The -15*F dewpoints definitely did us no favors in the precip department, lol. |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 27, 2022 13:10:15 GMT -6
Yikes, the 12z GFS has doubled my rainfall qpf to 5.25" in 162 hrs. Thats just under a 7 days. I hope it is wrong on the high side.
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Dec 27, 2022 16:44:01 GMT -6
Definitely not a good pattern for the next 15 days mostly above normal temperatures with a lot of rain. It’s crazy when we did finally get cold enough for snow we couldn’t get over.15” of qpf and now we warm up and we get bombarded with multiple decent rain events . It’s the St Louis way for sure. Definitely a good start to winter hopefully the pattern changes back in mid January Actually I’m good. I’m done with the cold. The avg 30s and 40s I’m ok with. |
|
modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
|
Post by modracer on Dec 27, 2022 20:44:30 GMT -6
Wife and I did a River Road trip yesterday, ending at Pier Marquette. Couldn’t believe the river was froze up solid upstream of the locks, but wide open downstream of the locks.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Dec 28, 2022 7:40:47 GMT -6
This is (apparently old, but) great…
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 28, 2022 8:00:27 GMT -6
This is (apparently old, but) great… That definitely brought a smile to me on my first day back at work, and embarking on a solid 2 to 4 week period of "nothing to see here". |
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Dec 28, 2022 9:06:40 GMT -6
This is (apparently old, but) great… That definitely brought a smile to me on my first day back at work, and embarking on a solid 2 to 4 week period of "nothing to see here". First day back yesterday, but I had another one to burn today. Back at it tomorrow. Off Friday and Monday. The real grind begins next Tuesday. Vacation days for me anymore are "vacation" days. Usually spend half the day doing work stuff. Tried, successfully for a change, to get away from doing that last week.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Dec 28, 2022 9:13:21 GMT -6
Thankful that most of the rain is coming after the Christmas delivery season. Amazon drivers did remarkably well this year staying on the actual driveway. Maybe my signs in the yard and homemade hedgehogs from previous years did the trick...or maybe drivers just got better. Either way, kudos to them.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2022 9:56:13 GMT -6
Looks like a soaking rainfall is in the cards for at least the SE half of the region on Friday with increasing frontogenesis and large-scale ascent. After that moves out, we'll have to watch the second system in line early next week. If the timing is favorable, there could be strong storm potential with sustained S flow pumping in warm and moist airmass.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 28, 2022 11:04:55 GMT -6
At long lead for severe potential, i try to keep an eye on PAH afd even though they are down south. We are close to the outlook area on d6 painted in 15% prob. Typically in a la nina year, that area migrates north as we get closer. Ive always considered mondays event to be more of a heavy rain potential with some gfs model qpf outputs well over 3 inches in parts of the metro. Solid connection to moisture and jet dynamics and high pwats, i wouldnt be surprised to see 4 plus inches in some locales if things materialize in gfs fashion. However, iirc, recent euro qpf are much much less. Nonetheless, we all should keep an eye on things, jic.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2022 11:30:25 GMT -6
Tomorrow is going to be awesome in the mid 60’s , it’s crazy to see nearly a 100 degree temp swing from last Thursday night wind chill-35 to near 65 tomorrow. It feels great out right now and it’s only 40
|
|
