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Post by bdgwx on Dec 29, 2022 13:36:39 GMT -6
The Missouri River at St. Charles may approach a record low next week according to the current forecast.
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Post by jeepers on Dec 29, 2022 14:19:05 GMT -6
There's an ice blockage between Boonesville and Glasgow, MO. They said it will break up with this warmer weather and won't be an issue.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 29, 2022 14:54:41 GMT -6
Speaking of rivers and ice... any word on the guy floating down on the ice the other day at Washington? I know they had been searching the past couple days, but not heard any new today.
Also, I'm hearing spring peepers out in the woods today.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 29, 2022 14:56:52 GMT -6
Speaking of rivers and ice... any word on the guy floating down on the ice the other day at Washington? I know they had been searching the past couple days, but not heard any new today. Also, I'm hearing spring peepers out in the woods today. Nothing. Unfortunately. That area claimed a power glider in the fall too. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 29, 2022 17:34:31 GMT -6
About 33% of the 18z gfs ensembles have accumulating snow around the metro by this time next week.
Interesting
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Post by landscaper on Dec 29, 2022 17:43:43 GMT -6
Models definitely look more wintery after next Wednesday, a little colder trends than the last few days
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 29, 2022 17:49:42 GMT -6
Speaking of rivers and ice... any word on the guy floating down on the ice the other day at Washington? I know they had been searching the past couple days, but not heard any new today. Also, I'm hearing spring peepers out in the woods today. I heard he was accounted for and does this regularly when there's ice flow. This weather almost makes me want to go look for little greys, lol |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 29, 2022 18:10:03 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 29, 2022 18:59:35 GMT -6
He is the son of a friend of a friend of mine. We tried to do the story yesterday, but we were not able to get any cooperation with anyone... law enforcement or friends... so we dropped it. I haven't heard if he was found or what the final outcome was. I just know there were a lot of people praying for him yesterday. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 29, 2022 19:33:54 GMT -6
hopefully something comes out about him soon
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 29, 2022 21:35:16 GMT -6
He is the son of a friend of a friend of mine. We tried to do the story yesterday, but we were not able to get any cooperation with anyone... law enforcement or friends... so we dropped it. I haven't heard if he was found or what the final outcome was. I just know there were a lot of people praying for him yesterday. There's still a ground and air search. Big muddy look their big canoe out today. Searching via water is impossible due to ice and the blockage up stream. I've been watching the mr340 group on fb for updates. |
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Post by thechaser on Dec 30, 2022 0:25:13 GMT -6
i.imgur.com/jP0Thks.pngi.imgur.com/qULWr6b.pngBeen interesting watching this cell southwest of St. Louis moving from Washington into Jefferson County. Perhaps a weak mesocyclone associated with it? Hodograph supports it from the latest HRRR in NE Jefferson County along with SPC Mesoanalysis. Just thought it was interesting. Edit: Looking up a few tilts and the sign is there it's a mesocyclone, rather weak overall.
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Post by thechaser on Dec 30, 2022 0:38:19 GMT -6
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Post by thechaser on Dec 30, 2022 0:41:47 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 30, 2022 0:54:17 GMT -6
This surface pattern on the Euro (similar to GFS/UKMET) is something you really have to pay attention to in the Winter for severe weather. Dewpoints around 60F, 40+ kts 925mb LLJ, and a deepening surface low passing to our North after dark Mon night. For now lapse rates in MO are pathetic and models are having a tough time generating any surface based instability. The warm air advection is trying to make it interesting and with those huge hodographs all it takes is a few hundred j/kg of CAPE and storms could become severe. As it stands severe outlook may remain just to the south of the metro given lack of instability in modeling, but this will have to be watched.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2022 0:56:59 GMT -6
Thunderstorm and heavy rain here
Quite the change from a week ago when it was below zero and -30 windchill
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Dec 30, 2022 1:31:24 GMT -6
Well that came in a little more energetic than I was expecting.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2022 1:35:37 GMT -6
This surface pattern on the Euro (similar to GFS/UKMET) is something you really have to pay attention to in the Winter for severe weather. Dewpoints around 60F, 40+ kts 925mb LLJ, and a deepening surface low passing to our North after dark Mon night. For now lapse rates in MO are pathetic and models are having a tough time generating any surface based instability. The warm air advection is trying to make it interesting and with those huge hodographs all it takes is a few hundred j/kg of CAPE and storms could become severe. As it stands severe outlook may remain just to the south of the metro given lack of instability in modeling, but this will have to be watched Ya, I've been watching the Ukmet the last few runs and it has a concerning look for severe weather around here. That surface low strengthening as it passes to our north smells like trouble, even with limited instability.
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Post by REB on Dec 30, 2022 7:15:07 GMT -6
1.28" here as of 7:15 a.m.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2022 8:30:16 GMT -6
Colorado State machine learning program has most of the area in a 30% risk area for Monday  |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 30, 2022 8:41:19 GMT -6
I was surprised to hear thunder around midnight. I looked at the radar and went out to put up my rubber mat against the outbuilding roll up door that keeps water out. Concrete slopes toward the middle of the building, d@$% rookies. Anyway, after going to bed the thunder woke the wife up and I mentioned to her that this is the 3rd downpour so far, and that we probably got 1/2" of rain. I was quite surprised to look on the Storm Total and see us in the 2" range. The pond should be full now. I am sure most/all of that was pure runoff with the ground being pretty wet already. Hoping for no severe weather Monday/Tuesday. The ground is quite wet which will not be a good combination with winds. At least most of the leaves are gone. Our oaks tend to really hold on to dead leaves. WTH Edit: When the wife woke up it was around 1am and I forgot to wish her a Happy Anniversary. Needless to say these small 'forgetful' things don't add up to the 'blow ups' that they use to do. Her motto anymore has more to do with the quick passage of time, she will say......."Hmmm, 41 years, feels like 41 minutes....................................................................... UNDER WATER.   Happy New Year's everyone in case I forget that.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 30, 2022 11:47:57 GMT -6
i.imgur.com/jP0Thks.pngi.imgur.com/qULWr6b.pngBeen interesting watching this cell southwest of St. Louis moving from Washington into Jefferson County. Perhaps a weak mesocyclone associated with it? Hodograph supports it from the latest HRRR in NE Jefferson County along with SPC Mesoanalysis. Just thought it was interesting. Edit: Looking up a few tilts and the sign is there it's a mesocyclone, rather weak overall. It was an iteresting little twisty look. I watched it for a bit to be double sure and then went to bed. |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 30, 2022 12:43:15 GMT -6
As mentioned before, I think we are entering a 2 week stretch of relatively boring weather, with little rain and normal to slightly above temps. Surprising to see drought conditions south of STL and normal through the heart. I knew north of us was hurting, but south of STL was surprising.  The next potential wintry storm I see is somewhere around the middle of January, per the GFS. Teleconnections appear to match up well for that time frame. The slightly positive PNA should allow some moisture in. MJO is forecasted to be in phase 8, which means there should be some cold air to work with. Two more weeks. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 30, 2022 13:44:19 GMT -6
As mentioned before, I think we are entering a 2 week stretch of relatively boring weather, with little rain and normal to slightly above temps. Surprising to see drought conditions south of STL and normal through the heart. I knew north of us was hurting, but south of STL was surprising. The next potential wintry storm I see is somewhere around the middle of January, per the GFS. Teleconnections appear to match up well for that time frame. The slightly positive PNA should allow some moisture in. MJO is forecasted to be in phase 8, which means there should be some cold air to work with. Two more weeks. It was over 60 degrees yesterday in STL. 50 today, 50 tomorrow, 60ish for Sunday-Tuesday. Average high is around 42 in STL this time of year Definitely a mild period that I would categorize as more than slightly above normal. Following the storm midweek next week normal to slightly above normal probably works until MLK weekend when the next stretch polar vortex event takes over. Looking at Siberia getting cold again, so that MLK weekend lag seems to lineup as well. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 30, 2022 17:50:26 GMT -6
Channel 5 had a bit of a story on the ice guy. His brother thinks he's dead. Search still ongoing.
Don't float on ice blocks in a big river, or any river.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 30, 2022 19:35:23 GMT -6
Looks like we might pick up another tenth or two of snow next Wednesday, so there's that.
Monday evening definitely needs to be watched closely...the EC/UK have around 500j/kg SBCAPE with ripping winds aloft.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 30, 2022 22:54:13 GMT -6
Looks like we might pick up another tenth or two of snow next Wednesday, so there's that. Monday evening definitely needs to be watched closely...the EC/UK have around 500j/kg SBCAPE with ripping winds aloft. Haha...another tenth or two of snow. Still 5 days out to wind up with nothing! I thought you meant to say another inch or two, we've learn to keep our expections low this winter season (and most of our winter seasons). 500 j/kg of CAPE isn't that impressive in the summer months, but is much more impressive in the winter months from what I just read! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2022 23:11:06 GMT -6
Any kind of instability with this kind of kinematic environment is not going to be good. Right now were being saved by crappy low level lapse rates  |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 31, 2022 8:41:36 GMT -6
Channel 5 had a bit of a story on the ice guy. His brother thinks he's dead. Search still ongoing. Don't float on ice blocks in a big river, or any river. I hope everything turns out alright and prayers for his family. However, I can’t help but think if you play stupid games, you’ll win stupid prizes. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 31, 2022 8:56:42 GMT -6
Looks like we might pick up another tenth or two of snow next Wednesday, so there's that. Monday evening definitely needs to be watched closely...the EC/UK have around 500j/kg SBCAPE with ripping winds aloft. Haha...another tenth or two of snow. Still 5 days out to wind up with nothing! I thought you meant to say another inch or two, we've learn to keep our expections low this winter season (and most of our winter seasons). 500 j/kg of CAPE isn't that impressive in the summer months, but is much more impressive in the winter months from what I just read! I definitely meant tenths, haha. So far, all these snowfalls IMBY have been measured with a decimal out front...hope that trend changes soon. |
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Happy New Year's everyone in case I forget that. 
