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Post by landscaper on Dec 31, 2022 9:20:49 GMT -6
Definitely a really boring 2-3 week stretch of weather
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 31, 2022 9:33:22 GMT -6
never fails, cold and active for 4 days followed by mild and rainy or boring for 4 weeks
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 31, 2022 10:12:12 GMT -6
GFS is going nuts with the SSW event potentially unfolding into January...it has 10mb temps warming near/above 0*C across Eurasia which I've never seen before. By the end of it's run, the vortex circulation is nearly destroyed by the strong and sustained burst of westerlies. This would have huge implications on the pattern going into late Jan and February.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2022 10:26:59 GMT -6
Euro weeklies are showing a favorable pattern later in January for cold. It doesn’t look all that dissimilar to what brought us the extreme cold last week.  |
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Post by REB on Dec 31, 2022 10:48:24 GMT -6
Happy New Year everyone !
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 31, 2022 12:30:10 GMT -6
GFS looks close to splitting the strat vortex by D15...at the very least, it's strongly weakened and displaced from it's current state(strong). Current:  D15:  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 31, 2022 12:51:58 GMT -6
GFS looks close to splitting the strat vortex by D15...at the very least, it's strongly weakened and displaced from it's current state(strong). Current: D15: I’ll be happy with just a stretch. If we get a full split, you have to worry about where the lobes go and you have to wait an additional 2 weeks which would put us in February. The stretches have more immediate impacts and tend to repeat. Ideally, a stretch in mid January and then a split the end of January. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 31, 2022 13:37:49 GMT -6
That seems to be the way we are headed, but predictability of splits isn't great, either. Definitely should see a disruption of the trop vortex later in the month if this verifies though. The EC weeklies that 920 posted seem to be showing a pattern favorable for continued UVWF that would continue/strengthen the warming episode in the stratosphere.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 31, 2022 15:09:00 GMT -6
I wish you all a very happy New Year. Be kind, live your life the way you want, let others do the same, be happy. The weather is great and often times around here, frustrating to follow. However there are far more important things in life than snow. I will try to follow my own advice as well. This is a great community and let's keep it that way, even when the inevitable ~Groundhog Day storm screws us. Lol
Happy new year fellow weather lovers!
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 31, 2022 15:13:39 GMT -6
Total deaths in the Buffalo area due to the blizzard have somewhat quietly risen to 39. News sources are reporting that of those 39, 4 people died in their cars and 17 people died outside as pedestrians (presumably an unknown number of those 17 where stranded drivers that left their cars). Several individual stories out there with unfortunate ends as well as some very lucky survivor stories. Many calling 911 and being told there's nothing they can do. It should be reiterated that the blizzard and it's severity was well forecasted and travel was absolutely prohibited at the time. There's blizzards, which Buffalo does get from time to time, but then there's next level blizzards like what happened here. Buffalo reporting station reported over 4 feet of snow and 70+ mph winds. Blizzard conditions were observed for 37 straight hours including numerous 0 visibility reports and winds often FAR exceeding the 35mph threshold.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 31, 2022 15:23:51 GMT -6
Total deaths in the Buffalo area due to the blizzard have somewhat quietly risen to 39. News sources are reporting that of those 39, 4 people died in their cars and 17 people died outside as pedestrians (presumably an unknown number of those 17 where stranded drivers that left their cars). Several individual stories out there with unfortunate ends as well as some very lucky survivor stories. Many calling 911 and being told there's nothing they can do. It should be reiterated that the blizzard and it's severity was well forecasted and travel was absolutely prohibited at the time. There's blizzards, which Buffalo does get from time to time, but then there's next level blizzards like what happened here. Buffalo reporting station reported over 4 feet of snow and 70+ mph winds. Blizzard conditions were observed for 37 straight hours including numerous 0 visibility reports and winds often FAR exceeding the 35mph threshold. To put it into perspective I believe there were 24 deaths nationwide from Tornado’s this year almost doubled died in Buffalo from this storm …… very sad |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 31, 2022 18:42:14 GMT -6
I never heard a number but I heard some died in their own homes when the power went out and they froze to death or medical assist devices failed.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 31, 2022 18:57:53 GMT -6
Interesting that the SPC only has the S half of the CWA outlined with a MRGL risk on Monday...models are pretty consistent in lifting the 60* Td line into the region by Mon evening producing ~500j/kg SBCAPE w/ 50kts+ bulk shear. I would expect the MRGL/SLGT risk areas to be expanded northward in future outlooks.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 31, 2022 20:06:57 GMT -6
Keeping watch on the Monday night system, but taking a break tonight and tomorrow.
Please be safe and have a happy new year everyone!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 31, 2022 20:33:45 GMT -6
Happy New Year!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2022 20:50:05 GMT -6
Interesting that the SPC only has the S half of the CWA outlined with a MRGL risk on Monday...models are pretty consistent in lifting the 60* Td line into the region by Mon evening producing ~500j/kg SBCAPE w/ 50kts+ bulk shear. I would expect the MRGL/SLGT risk areas to be expanded northward in future outlooks. NAM has a wicked LLJ kicking in Monday evening  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 31, 2022 21:21:11 GMT -6
Definitely an environment that would allow spin ups with sustained updrafts. Lapse rates are looking marginal though.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 31, 2022 21:30:55 GMT -6
Everyone have a safe New Year's Eve and wishing peace and health for 2023 to you and your families.
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 1, 2023 0:13:24 GMT -6
Happy New Year 🎉
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 1, 2023 1:14:06 GMT -6
Happy New Year everyone!!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 1, 2023 4:10:38 GMT -6
Happy New Year guys and gals. 🥂❤️
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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 1, 2023 7:26:15 GMT -6
Happy New Year!!☔️❄️☀️⛈️🌡🌨🌤⚡️
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Post by freezyfree on Jan 1, 2023 8:27:24 GMT -6
Happy New Year! May everyone enjoy a healthy and prosperous 2023!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 1, 2023 10:15:23 GMT -6
December ended up .6 below normal, .54 of precip below normal and 1.1 of snow below normal. Pretty craptacular minus 3 days lol
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Post by landscaper on Jan 1, 2023 11:24:47 GMT -6
It is crazy warm outside, with the sun and no wind it feels great outside
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 1, 2023 11:30:54 GMT -6
Happy New Year to you all! A beautiful start to 2023! Thank you to Chris for this forum!
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Post by joshofstl on Jan 1, 2023 11:59:46 GMT -6
It is crazy warm outside, with the sun and no wind it feels great outside I couldn't help but laugh seeing that the forecasted high is 58 and it's already 62. Could we actually hit 70 today? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 1, 2023 12:49:25 GMT -6
it won't hit 70. But it's gross
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 1, 2023 12:55:30 GMT -6
Definitely no major winter storms in sight, but there does seem to be a couple systems of interest this coming week after the heavy rain/severe threat clears out. The first on Wed/Thurs with the cut-off energy digging in and the second towards next weekend. That cut off looks favorable for SNSH activity with cold mid-level temps and possibly some partial phasing with energy coming through the S stream. The second could turn into an icing situation, with a lingering cold airmass being overrun. The UK is bullish with that, with snow and ice across the N half of the CWA. Something to keep an eye on at least...
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 1, 2023 16:31:10 GMT -6
5.4 earthquake near the 6. earthquake that occurred early in December near Eureka, CA. Aftershock maybe?
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