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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 1, 2023 19:03:13 GMT -6
Just took the dog out and have a very light mist falling.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 1, 2023 20:15:08 GMT -6
Lets hope the NAM isn't right  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 1, 2023 21:12:48 GMT -6
I've got a bad gut feeling about tomorrow...let's see how it plays out. I think the SPC is sleeping on the northern mode. A lot will depend on how quickly the low stratus/fog mixes out and allows surface warming to commence. Low level lapse rates continue to look marginal, which could limit the potential.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 1, 2023 21:14:28 GMT -6
Happy New Year's everyone.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 1, 2023 22:44:09 GMT -6
Happy 2023! The start of the 17th year of MTWSTL!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 1, 2023 23:12:04 GMT -6
I've got a bad gut feeling about tomorrow...let's see how it plays out. I think the SPC is sleeping on the northern mode. A lot will depend on how quickly the low stratus/fog mixes out and allows surface warming to commence. Low level lapse rates continue to look marginal, which could limit the potential. I wouldn't mind the marginal being pulled further north. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 1, 2023 23:38:05 GMT -6
21z SREF mean sounding for the metro tomorrow night. We're going to have to monitor convective trends tomorrow closely. CAMs have been slowly ticking up instability for the area tomorrow evening/overnight  |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 2, 2023 7:46:54 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 2, 2023 9:21:51 GMT -6
pretty good area of clearing in sw mo, heading into central mo. You can see the stratus/fog not moving much in some areas. Guess We'll see what happens.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 2, 2023 9:31:02 GMT -6
I'm fairly certain there's not a "zero risk" for severe wx in/around the Metro this evening...
Fog/stratus still holding tough up here and surface pressure is slowly rising. The warm front isn't budging so far...but things can change quickly in this kind of environment.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2023 9:53:47 GMT -6
I think the storms will struggle to become surface based this far north.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 2, 2023 10:05:04 GMT -6
I think the storms will struggle to become surface based this far north. I'd say that's probable, but if one or two can become rooted near the surface...look out |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 2, 2023 10:15:58 GMT -6
I don't see the existing clouds as the limiting factor here. In this type of setup the warm moist advection could theoretically generate surface based instability on it's own. However, almost all the CAMs are developing a batch of rain that develops in the ARLATX region and throughout AR and moves into SE MO whose cool outflow may suppress surface instability. We can already see some of this development on radar. But if that doesn't happen then that might raise the risk level substantially in the immediate metro.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 10:24:32 GMT -6
I'm fairly certain there's not a "zero risk" for severe wx in/around the Metro this evening... Fog/stratus still holding tough up here and surface pressure is slowly rising. The warm front isn't budging so far...but things can change quickly in this kind of environment. There is most definitely not a zero risk... not with a warm front in the neighborhood and an occluding surface low to our north...and Td's near 60 in January. Storm mode may get messy down south and this could disrupt things a bit... but there is certainly a conditional risk of severe storms and tornadoes at least as far north as I-70. It does appear that the stratus is showing signs of decay on the edges and I think we will see at least some filtered sunshine this afternoon. Winter events are always a bit messy but can come together surprisingly fast once the LLJ starts to increase and blow open the hodographs in the evening. This seems like an event where we may be teetering on the edge until the band moves through. I'm also keeping half an eye on tomorrow around midday. There have been a few hints at some isolated cells along the actual cold front. I'm not jazzed about it, but I'm not ignoring it either. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 10:28:14 GMT -6
I don't see the existing clouds as the limiting factor here. In this type of setup the warm moist advection could theoretically generate surface based instability on it's own. However, almost all the CAMs are developing a batch of rain that develops in the ARLATX region and throughout AR and moves into SE MO whose cool outflow may suppress surface instability. We can already see some of this development on radar. But if that doesn't happen then that might raise the risk level substantially in the immediate metro. Very true... But the LLJ and overall strong southerly flow may be able to recharge things pretty quickly in the wake of that first batch. Lots of maybes, what-ifs, etc in play which is why a marginal/slight risk is definitely warranted...I still wouldn't mind even a little further north...but since I'm saying "along and south of I-70" I'm not too worried about exactly where the line gets drawn. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 2, 2023 10:29:10 GMT -6
Yeah, tomorrow seems like a half-baked dry slot setup for the far SE reaches...worth watching too.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 2, 2023 10:31:47 GMT -6
Besides the dense fog, a nice mist this morning! Fog gone now basically. I notice an area of no clouds in SW MO as well as more breaks in the clouds just S of STL as the flow moves NE.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 10:32:22 GMT -6
Side note... I can geek out on hires vis satellite imagery all day! That and radar interpretation are probably my two most favorite things to do! It just amazes me the quality of the images these days... that we can actually see individual contrails from aircraft now on these satellites is so awesome!  |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 2, 2023 11:02:02 GMT -6
Why no news today at 11am?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 2, 2023 11:49:52 GMT -6
probably don't wanna go up against the Rose Parade. Or something.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 2, 2023 12:24:38 GMT -6
Sun is trying to come out here. See if it succeeds.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 2, 2023 12:26:42 GMT -6
Stratus burning off quick in Alton...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 2, 2023 12:40:03 GMT -6
12z NAM vs real world obs right now NAM is running cold  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 12:55:09 GMT -6
Yeah, tomorrow seems like a half-baked dry slot setup for the far SE reaches...worth watching too. Bingo! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 12:57:04 GMT -6
Tds in the 60s surging north.
A messy setup.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 2, 2023 13:14:08 GMT -6
65-70 Tds reported in AR and even the bootheel of MO.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 2, 2023 13:57:22 GMT -6
It's looking like rain cooled air from all the convection this afternoon will keep things from getting too unstable around here tonight
Let's see how everything plays out
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 2, 2023 15:10:48 GMT -6
The sun is out (coming thru the thin stratus) in Northern Wildwood.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 2, 2023 15:29:51 GMT -6
Cloudy and pretty dark up in Troy.
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 2, 2023 15:35:19 GMT -6
The sun is out (coming thru the thin stratus) in Northern Wildwood. Interesting... very low ceiling and no signs of brightening in Fenton/High Ridge |
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