bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 2, 2023 16:19:49 GMT -6
When does it look like next chance of snow?
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Post by landscaper on Jan 2, 2023 16:40:23 GMT -6
Nothing really on the models for the next two weeks, after than not sure . Supposedly the pattern is going to change to more cold later this month and into February.
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 2, 2023 17:56:36 GMT -6
Complete pea soup in downtown High Ridge. Maybe 300 ft visibility
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 18:10:49 GMT -6
About 1/2 mile in Festus where we are. The warm front is just to the south.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 2, 2023 18:20:09 GMT -6
From the disco in San Francisco..wow..
To put it simply, this will likely be one of the most impactful
systems on a widespread scale that this meteorologist has seen in
a long while. The impacts will include widespread flooding, roads
washing out, hillside collapsing, trees down (potentially full
groves), widespread power outages, immediate disruption to
commerce, and the worst of all, likely loss of human life. This
is truly a brutal system that we are looking at and needs to be
taken seriously.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 2, 2023 18:25:52 GMT -6
Wow, pretty strong wording there. Just had some rolling thunder 7 miles west of De Soto. The forecast changed from showers to thunderstorms and fog.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 2, 2023 18:28:59 GMT -6
Yep some nice lightning and thunder out here.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 18:38:57 GMT -6
The key to any developing severe potential will be if the LLJ can recharge the low levels in the wake of this first batch of rain and thunder. That remains questionable, but not impossible.
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 2, 2023 18:39:18 GMT -6
The fog and lightning combination here in High Ridge is kind of creepy
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 2, 2023 19:08:19 GMT -6
Radar really lighting up, also first thundershower of the year underway in Belleville!
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 2, 2023 19:11:53 GMT -6
From the disco in San Francisco..wow.. To put it simply, this will likely be one of the most impactful systems on a widespread scale that this meteorologist has seen in a long while. The impacts will include widespread flooding, roads washing out, hillside collapsing, trees down (potentially full groves), widespread power outages, immediate disruption to commerce, and the worst of all, likely loss of human life. This is truly a brutal system that we are looking at and needs to be taken seriously. This is a drought buster; no doubt. A lot of people don't know that California is susceptible to megafloods. It is estimated that the recurrence interval is about 200 years though it increases with each step up in Pacific SST. The last megaflood occurred in 1862. The one before that was 1605 and is considered to be the largest flood event in California in 2000 years. There is a scenario dubbed ARKstorm that would be somewhere between the 1862 and 1605 events in terms of magnitude that is expected to cause up to $1 trillion in damages. Both the GEFS and EPS are showing a lot of rain over the next 15 days. It's not an ARKstorm level of event, but it is unusual in that it is occurring during a La Nina. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 2, 2023 19:39:13 GMT -6
Well that would certainly be an issue.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 2, 2023 20:09:15 GMT -6
From the disco in San Francisco..wow.. To put it simply, this will likely be one of the most impactful systems on a widespread scale that this meteorologist has seen in a long while. The impacts will include widespread flooding, roads washing out, hillside collapsing, trees down (potentially full groves), widespread power outages, immediate disruption to commerce, and the worst of all, likely loss of human life. This is truly a brutal system that we are looking at and needs to be taken seriously. And 200 miles inland the higher elevations of the Sierras are expecting 10 feet of snow or more. I can't imagine what that is like |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 20:15:24 GMT -6
I'm not so sure we are out of the woods yet.
The line segments out west are starting to take on short bow shapes and feeling the effects of the increasing LLJ.
It's a marginal set-up... but definitely need to keep an eye on things out here this evening.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 20:17:06 GMT -6
From the disco in San Francisco..wow.. To put it simply, this will likely be one of the most impactful systems on a widespread scale that this meteorologist has seen in a long while. The impacts will include widespread flooding, roads washing out, hillside collapsing, trees down (potentially full groves), widespread power outages, immediate disruption to commerce, and the worst of all, likely loss of human life. This is truly a brutal system that we are looking at and needs to be taken seriously. And 200 miles inland the higher elevations of the Sierras are expecting 10 feet of snow or more. I can't imagine what that is like Hopefully this will help fill up Lake Meade. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 2, 2023 20:19:38 GMT -6
I follow Lake Meade on Twitter. He (she) said it hasn't fallen all year. :/
Following some geoligical areas on twitter is actually pretty funny.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 20:21:16 GMT -6
I follow Lake Meade on Twitter. He (she) said it hasn't fallen all year. :/ Following some geoligical areas on twitter is actually pretty funny. I wonder if they ever cop an attitude. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 2, 2023 20:38:52 GMT -6
Hoping for the best, but Monday night football game currently suspended due to a very serious injury.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 2, 2023 20:41:57 GMT -6
I follow Lake Meade on Twitter. He (she) said it hasn't fallen all year. :/ Following some geoligical areas on twitter is actually pretty funny. I wonder if they ever cop an attitude. They do. Lake Superior thins he's better than all others. Its kinda funny. Or I lead a pathetic life. lol |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 2, 2023 20:56:45 GMT -6
the long range models are so awful. what the heck happened to our winter?  The cold air in North America gets even more wiped out. With modified cold around the Hudson. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 2, 2023 20:58:33 GMT -6
From the disco in San Francisco..wow.. To put it simply, this will likely be one of the most impactful systems on a widespread scale that this meteorologist has seen in a long while. The impacts will include widespread flooding, roads washing out, hillside collapsing, trees down (potentially full groves), widespread power outages, immediate disruption to commerce, and the worst of all, likely loss of human life. This is truly a brutal system that we are looking at and needs to be taken seriously. This is a drought buster; no doubt. A lot of people don't know that California is susceptible to megafloods. It is estimated that the recurrence interval is about 200 years though it increases with each step up in Pacific SST. The last megaflood occurred in 1862. The one before that was 1605 and is considered to be the largest flood event in California in 2000 years. There is a scenario dubbed ARKstorm that would be somewhere between the 1862 and 1605 events in terms of magnitude that is expected to cause up to $1 trillion in damages. Both the GEFS and EPS are showing a lot of rain over the next 15 days. It's not an ARKstorm level of event, but it is unusual in that it is occurring during a La Nina. Complicating matters is that since 1862, much has changed about the landscape of California. It’s gonna be a mess by the time it’s all said and done. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 2, 2023 21:00:38 GMT -6
When does it look like next chance of snow? The pattern should become more conducive to snow around mid month. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 21:11:22 GMT -6
the long range models are so awful. what the heck happened to our winter? The cold air in North America gets even more wiped out. With modified cold around the Hudson. And in case you haven't noticed. Nearly ever site in Europe appears to have broken all time January high temperatures today! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 2, 2023 21:20:30 GMT -6
the long range models are so awful. what the heck happened to our winter? The cold air in North America gets even more wiped out. With modified cold around the Hudson. And in case you haven't noticed. Nearly ever site in Europe appears to have broken all time January high temperatures today! I didn't. Just took a look. decrepit there as well. snow cover departures are huge all the way into W/SW Russia |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 21:24:21 GMT -6
And we've said it before... you dump out the artic like we did... there is going to be a huge warm-up on the other side. It's going to take time to get the freezer to cool back down again. Winter is not over... but it may take some time to get back to winter weather.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 2, 2023 21:25:01 GMT -6
And in case you haven't noticed. Nearly ever site in Europe appears to have broken all time January high temperatures today! I didn't. Just took a look. decrepit there as well. snow cover departures are huge all the way into W/SW Russia The good news is the gfs model output doesn’t really match the projected phase 8 MJO. There also appears to be a stretched PV event mid month. So, while things appear dire, there is some hope. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 2, 2023 21:27:22 GMT -6
Hoping for the best, but Monday night football game currently suspended due to a very serious injury. That is one terrible thing to see. I wish I hadn't watched the video. It's not that the hit looked that bad. But seeing the aftermath is terrifying. I understand his mom was in the stands watching the game and was in the ambulance with him. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 2, 2023 21:30:53 GMT -6
I was looking at the upper air charts on the GFS, and it looks like a split flow with the northern flow bottling the cold air up well into Canada for the foreseeable future. There's some hope at the end of the model run, I suppose which supports others who have posted that mid January may become more conducive for wintry weather. It's a long way off, though. I personally like the idea of late January into early February for another bout of wintry weather. Seems like we've seen a seasonal trend of recent years that February could be active in terms of winter weather, but whether we see a repeating pattern of re-load, repeat in a more rapid sequence is TBD. The one thing that seems forecastable with any degree of confidence at this point, is that we won't see a pattern conducive for snow in the next week to 10 days.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 3, 2023 0:15:08 GMT -6
Meh, not even a clap of thunder...
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 3, 2023 6:08:28 GMT -6
Chris did you go to bed last night? Or did you sleep in the Storm Runner?
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