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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2023 7:07:18 GMT -6
Chris did you go to bed last night? Or did you sleep in the Storm Runner? Real weather dudes don't need sleep. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2023 7:49:52 GMT -6
Lol record highs expected now for today. I give up
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2023 10:08:52 GMT -6
This afternoon could get interesting...CAMs are developing 1000j/kg+ SBCAPE on the IL side with strong shear/long hodographs. Storms look to develop near the Metro mid-afternoon and quickly shift E/NE into IL. I may have to do some chasing today...
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 3, 2023 10:59:43 GMT -6
So who’s ready for Christmas 2023 lol.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 3, 2023 11:23:02 GMT -6
Chris did you go to bed last night? Or did you sleep in the Storm Runner? Real weather dudes don't need sleep. Or the ever popular “I'll sleep when I'm dead.“ |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2023 11:26:43 GMT -6
This afternoon could get interesting...CAMs are developing 1000j/kg+ SBCAPE on the IL side with strong shear/long hodographs. Storms look to develop near the Metro mid-afternoon and quickly shift E/NE into IL. I may have to do some chasing today... Latest HRRR is showing almost 2000j/kg of SBCAPE and 65kts of bulk shear on the east side. If any cells get going that could be interesting  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2023 11:35:30 GMT -6
A few cells bubbling along the river...seems a bit ahead of schedule. Let's see what happens.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2023 11:40:43 GMT -6
Not much directional shear, so the tor threat doesn’t seem very high. More of a hail and wind threat from any supercells that get established. Can’t rule out some quick spin ups though. Especially if surface winds can back a bit.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2023 11:49:39 GMT -6
Not much directional shear, so the tor threat doesn’t seem very high. More of a hail and wind threat from any supercells that get established. Can’t rule out some quick spin ups though. Especially if surface winds can back a bit. Yeah, surface winds are pretty veered. There's enough 0-1km shear to support a tornado threat though. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 3, 2023 11:59:56 GMT -6
Some of the grass is already getting green and there's some budding going on. There is some possibility we might very well be done with Winter or at least anything long lasting as far as cold and heavy snow. Might of cashed in early after all.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2023 12:04:51 GMT -6
It’s January 3rd…
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2023 12:05:08 GMT -6
Yesterday seemed like a pretty sizable bust for severe wx...only 5 reports of tornadoes and not a single severe report in MO or IL. It wasn't the most impressive setup, but I'm surprised at the overall lack of reports.
Today might end up being the bigger day.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 3, 2023 12:21:48 GMT -6
Some of the grass is already getting green and there's some budding going on. There is some possibility we might very well be done with Winter or at least anything long lasting as far as cold and heavy snow. Might of cashed in early after all. I told my wife on Sunday that the grass was certainly greener than it had been. We will get cold, we will get more snow. Just because its 70 at the moment doesnt mean its spring. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 3, 2023 12:53:56 GMT -6
Some of the grass is already getting green and there's some budding going on. There is some possibility we might very well be done with Winter or at least anything long lasting as far as cold and heavy snow. Might of cashed in early after all. We have days like this every year in the middle of winter and come late January/early February it’s almost always pure winter. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2023 13:06:45 GMT -6
Looks like storms are struggling to develop with the strong mid-level shear. You can watch the updrafts get tilted to near 60* and then dissipate.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 3, 2023 13:56:29 GMT -6
Some of the grass is already getting green and there's some budding going on. There is some possibility we might very well be done with Winter or at least anything long lasting as far as cold and heavy snow. Might of cashed in early after all. Yes, theres always "some possibility" of that happening. But theres nothing to indicate that this year that possibility is higher than other years. This is a normally occurring thing, especially in recent years. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2023 14:22:36 GMT -6
I'd say there's some possibility that we haven't seen the worst of winter yet...
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 3, 2023 14:33:07 GMT -6
72 at our house in Festus!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2023 15:33:02 GMT -6
Respectable mesocyclone in the mini-supercell over Girard right now.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 3, 2023 16:12:48 GMT -6
Very small tornado warning east of Springfield Il
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2023 16:15:43 GMT -6
Respectable mesocyclone in the mini-supercell over Girard right now. Of course they get their act together when they are too far NE to catch up to...my luck! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2023 16:18:43 GMT -6
Very small tornado warning east of Springfield Il Tagged as confirmed by spotters...I missed my chance today. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 3, 2023 16:47:19 GMT -6
I was very surprised to see the Torando Warning box but had to look very hard to find the warning. I guess this defines the "conditional' definition of today's parameters?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2023 16:48:03 GMT -6
And now there are three warnings.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2023 16:48:56 GMT -6
And now there are three warnings. Two confirmed...quite the little outbreak unfolding up that way |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2023 16:52:26 GMT -6
Record high of 72° set at lambert today
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2023 16:58:22 GMT -6
And now there are three warnings. Two confirmed...quite the little outbreak unfolding up that way A little further north and later in the day than I expected... but we had the right idea to monitor the potential in IL. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2023 17:04:52 GMT -6
Yeah...I guess it's not surprising that they ended up favoring the triple point region. Really wish I had gone up that way earlier.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 3, 2023 19:34:23 GMT -6
by day 10...and this is the euro op. So even tho its a huge torch for NA. Very cold brutal cold develops over central Siberia. It seems rather far South but I am not familiar with where we exactly want it. But its definitely reloaded by then. these are 850mb temps from the euro for day 10. And 850mb temp anomalies from the euro day 10.   |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 3, 2023 19:38:31 GMT -6
the gem and gfs show the same. the gfs is a bit weaker but the gem looks very nice.   |
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